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We consider the task of identifying and estimating a parameter of interest in settings where data is missing not at random (MNAR). In general, such parameters are not identified without strong assumptions on the missing data model. In this…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-29 Zixiao Wang , AmirEmad Ghassami , Ilya Shpitser

Missing data is a common problem in medical research, and is commonly addressed using multiple imputation. Although traditional imputation methods allow for valid statistical inference when data are missing at random (MAR), their…

In this paper, I study the nonparametric identification and estimation of the marginal effect of an endogenous variable $X$ on the outcome variable $Y$, given a potentially mismeasured instrument variable $W^*$, without assuming linearity…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-04-23 Shaomin Wu

In this paper, we study nonparametric estimation of instrumental variable (IV) regressions. While recent advancements in machine learning have introduced flexible methods for IV estimation, they often encounter one or more of the following…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-08 Zihao Li , Hui Lan , Vasilis Syrgkanis , Mengdi Wang , Masatoshi Uehara

Although approaches for handling missing data from longitudinal studies are well-developed when the patterns of missingness are monotone, fewer methods are available for non-monotone missingness. Moreover, the conventional missing at random…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-28 Boyu Ren , Stuart R. Lipsitz , Roger D. Weiss , Garrett M. Fitzmaurice

Instrumental variables have been widely used to estimate the causal effect of a treatment on an outcome. Existing confidence intervals for causal effects based on instrumental variables assume that all of the putative instrumental variables…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-03 Hyunseung Kang , Youjin Lee , T. Tony Cai , Dylan S. Small

Instrumental Variable (IV) provides a source of treatment randomization that is conditionally independent of the outcomes, responding to the challenges of counterfactual and confounding biases. In finance, IV construction typically relies…

General Economics · Economics 2024-11-27 Ying Chen , Ziwei Xu , Kotaro Inoue , Ryutaro Ichise

A major challenge in instrumental variables (IV) analysis is to find instruments that are valid, or have no direct effect on the outcome and are ignorable. Typically one is unsure whether all of the putative IVs are in fact valid. We…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-08-10 Zijian Guo , Hyunseung Kang , T. Tony Cai , Dylan S. Small

We study the problem of missing not at random (MNAR) datasets with binary outcomes. We propose an exponential tilt based approach that bypasses any knowledge on 'nonresponse instruments' or 'shadow variables' that are usually required for…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-11 Subha Maity

Item nonresponse is frequently encountered in practice. Ignoring missing data can lose efficiency and lead to misleading inference. Fractional imputation is a frequentist approach of imputation for handling missing data. However, the…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-09-18 Hejian Sang , Jae Kwang Kim

It is well-known that, without restricting treatment effect heterogeneity, instrumental variable (IV) methods only identify "local" effects among compliers, i.e., those subjects who take treatment only when encouraged by the IV. Local…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-06-03 Edward H. Kennedy , Sivaraman Balakrishnan , Max G'Sell

Latent factor models for Recommender Systems with implicit feedback typically treat unobserved user-item interactions (i.e. missing information) as negative feedback. This is frequently done either through negative sampling (point--wise…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-08-17 Juan Arévalo , Juan Ramón Duque , Marco Creatura

Recently, there has been a surge in methodological development for the difference-in-differences (DiD) approach to evaluate causal effects. Standard methods in the literature rely on the parallel trends assumption to identify the average…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-17 Pan Zhao , Yifan Cui

Influence function, a technique rooted in robust statistics, has been adapted in modern machine learning for a novel application: data attribution -- quantifying how individual training data points affect a model's predictions. However, the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-03 Junwei Deng , Weijing Tang , Jiaqi W. Ma

This paper considers inference in a linear instrumental variable regression model with many potentially weak instruments, in the presence of heterogeneous treatment effects. I first show that existing test procedures, including those that…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-04-24 Luther Yap

Marginal structural models (MSMs) are commonly used to estimate causal intervention effects in longitudinal non-randomised studies. A common issue when analysing data from observational studies is the presence of incomplete confounder data,…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-12-02 Clemence Leyrat , James R Carpenter , Sebastien Bailly , Elizabeth J Willamson

Consider the problem of estimating the local average treatment effect with an instrument variable, where the instrument unconfoundedness holds after adjusting for a set of measured covariates. Several unknown functions of the covariates…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-09-22 Baoluo Sun , Zhiqiang Tan

Instrumental variable analysis is a widely used method to estimate causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding. When the instruments, exposure and outcome are not measured in the same sample, Angrist and Krueger (1992)…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-09-07 Qingyuan Zhao , Jingshu Wang , Jack Bowden , Dylan S. Small

Instrumental variable methods allow for inference about the treatment effect by controlling for unmeasured confounding in randomized experiments with noncompliance. However, many studies do not consider the observed compliance behavior in…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-15 Kwonsang Lee , Bhaswar B. Bhattacharya , Jing Qin , Dylan S. Small

Instrumental variable approaches have gained popularity for estimating causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounders. However, the availability of instrumental variables in the primary dataset is often challenged due to stringent…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-31 Kang Shuai , Shanshan Luo , Wei Li , Yangbo He