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Deploying trustworthy AI systems requires principled uncertainty quantification. Conformal prediction (CP) is a widely used framework for constructing prediction sets with distribution-free coverage guarantees. In many practical settings,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-18 Haifeng Wen , Osvaldo Simeone , Hong Xing

In this paper, we present a novel approach for conformal prediction (CP), in which we aim to identify a set of promising prediction candidates -- in place of a single prediction. This set is guaranteed to contain a correct answer with high…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-03 Adam Fisch , Tal Schuster , Tommi Jaakkola , Regina Barzilay

Conformal Prediction (CP) stands out as a robust framework for uncertainty quantification, which is crucial for ensuring the reliability of predictions. However, common CP methods heavily rely on data exchangeability, a condition often…

Forecasting surgical instrument trajectories and predicting the next surgical action recently started to attract attention from the research community. Both these tasks are crucial for automation and assistance in endoscopy surgery. Given…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-03-13 Sara Sangalli , Gary Sarwin , Ertunc Erdil , Alessandro Carretta , Victor Staartjes , Carlo Serra , Ender Konukoglu

Conformal Prediction (CP) quantifies network uncertainty by building a small prediction set with a pre-defined probability that the correct class is within this set. In this study we tackle the problem of CP calibration based on a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-22 Coby Penso , Jacob Goldberger

Medical image compression is a widely studied field of data processing due to its prevalence in modern digital databases. This domain requires a high color depth of 12 bits per pixel component for accurate analysis by physicians, primarily…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-11-11 Taaha Khan

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a powerful framework for constructing prediction sets with guaranteed coverage. However, recent studies have shown that integrating confidence calibration with CP can lead to a degradation in efficiency. In this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-25 Rui Luo , Nicolo Colombo

Conformal prediction (CP) converts any model's output to prediction sets with a guarantee to cover the true label with (adjustable) high probability. Robust CP extends this guarantee to worst-case (adversarial) inputs. Existing baselines…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-10 Soroush H. Zargarbashi , Aleksandar Bojchevski

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a popular framework for constructing prediction bands with valid coverage in finite samples, while being free of any distributional assumption. A well-known limitation of conformal prediction is the lack of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-28 Louis Allain , Sébastien da Veiga , Brian Staber

Safe deployment of deep neural networks in high-stake real-world applications requires theoretically sound uncertainty quantification. Conformal prediction (CP) is a principled framework for uncertainty quantification of deep models in the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-21 Subhankar Ghosh , Taha Belkhouja , Yan Yan , Janardhan Rao Doppa

Conformal prediction is widely used to equip black-box machine learning models with uncertainty quantification, offering formal coverage guarantees under exchangeable data. However, these guarantees fail when faced with subpopulation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-10 Nien-Shao Wang , Duygu Nur Yaldiz , Yavuz Faruk Bakman , Sai Praneeth Karimireddy

Post-hoc calibration of pre-trained models is critical for ensuring reliable inference, especially in safety-critical domains such as healthcare. Conformal Prediction (CP) offers a robust post-hoc calibration framework, providing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-22 Haifeng Wen , Hong Xing , Osvaldo Simeone

Quantifying uncertainty in clinical predictions is critical for high-stakes diagnosis tasks. Conformal prediction offers a principled approach by providing prediction sets with theoretical coverage guarantees. However, in practice, patient…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-01 Arjun Chatterjee , Sayeed Sajjad Razin , John Wu , Siddhartha Laghuvarapu , Jathurshan Pradeepkumar , Jimeng Sun

We introduce CUPS, a novel method for learning sequence-to-sequence 3D human shapes and poses from RGB videos with uncertainty quantification. To improve on top of prior work, we develop a method to generate and score multiple hypotheses…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-12-17 Harry Zhang , Luca Carlone

Medical image segmentation is a crucial task in medical image analysis, but it can be very challenging especially when there are less labeled data but with large unlabeled data. Contrastive learning has proven to be effective for medical…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-02-11 Shihuan He , Zhihui Lai , Ruxin Wang , Heng Kong

Conformal prediction (CP) is a wrapper around traditional machine learning models, giving coverage guarantees under the sole assumption of exchangeability; in classification problems, for a chosen significance level $\varepsilon$, CP…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-23 Javier Abad , Umang Bhatt , Adrian Weller , Giovanni Cherubin

While high-capacity AI models have advanced state-of-the-art performance, their practical deployment is often hindered by high inference costs, environmental impact, and a "one-size-fits-all" approach that ignores varying sample complexity.…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-05-19 Turkoglu Mikael , Bary Tim , Thielens Vincent , Dausort Manon , Macq Benoît

Conformal Prediction (CP) serves as a robust framework that quantifies uncertainty in predictions made by Machine Learning (ML) models. Unlike traditional point predictors, CP generates statistically valid prediction regions, also known as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-29 A. A. Balinsky , A. D. Balinsky

Conformal prediction is a popular technique for constructing prediction intervals with distribution-free coverage guarantees. The coverage is marginal, meaning it only holds on average over the entire population but not necessarily for any…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-28 Yao Zhang , Emmanuel J. Candès

Conformal prediction builds marginally valid prediction intervals that cover the unknown outcome of a randomly drawn test point with a prescribed probability. However, in practice, data-driven methods are often used to identify specific…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-21 Ying Jin , Zhimei Ren