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In this paper, we present a novel approach for conformal prediction (CP), in which we aim to identify a set of promising prediction candidates -- in place of a single prediction. This set is guaranteed to contain a correct answer with high…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-03 Adam Fisch , Tal Schuster , Tommi Jaakkola , Regina Barzilay

Conformal prediction (CP) has emerged as a powerful tool in robotics and control, thanks to its ability to calibrate complex, data-driven models with formal guarantees. However, in robot navigation tasks, existing CP-based methods often…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-04-02 Jaeuk Shin , Jungjin Lee , Insoon Yang

Conformal prediction (CP) provides a distribution-free approach to uncertainty quantification with finite-sample guarantees. However, applying CP to graph neural networks (GNNs) remains challenging as the combinatorial nature of graphs…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-11 Peyman Baghershahi , Fangxin Wang , Debmalya Mandal , Sourav Medya

When one observes a sequence of variables $(x_1, y_1), \ldots, (x_n, y_n)$, Conformal Prediction (CP) is a methodology that allows to estimate a confidence set for $y_{n+1}$ given $x_{n+1}$ by merely assuming that the distribution of the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-12-08 Eugene Ndiaye

The reliable deployment of deep learning in medical imaging requires uncertainty quantification that provides rigorous error guarantees while remaining anatomically meaningful. Conformal prediction (CP) is a powerful distribution-free…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-01-28 Mélanie Gaillochet , Christian Desrosiers , Hervé Lombaert

Rigorous uncertainty quantification is essential for the safe deployment of autonomous systems in unconstrained environments. Conformal Prediction (CP) provides a distribution-free framework for this task, yet its standard formulations rely…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-14 Renukanandan Tumu , Aditya Singh , Rahul Mangharam

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a popular method for uncertainty quantification with machine learning models. While conformal prediction provides probabilistic guarantees regarding the coverage of the true label, these guarantees are agnostic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-21 Aditya T. Vadlamani , Anutam Srinivasan , Pranav Maneriker , Ali Payani , Srinivasan Parthasarathy

Conformal prediction (CP) quantifies the uncertainty of machine learning models by constructing sets of plausible outputs. These sets are constructed by leveraging a so-called conformity score, a quantity computed using the input point of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-07 Michal Klein , Louis Bethune , Eugene Ndiaye , Marco Cuturi

Conformal prediction is a framework that provides valid uncertainty quantification for general models with exchangeable data. However, in the online learning and time-series settings, exchangeability is not satisfied. Existing online…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-11 Yuheng Lai , Garvesh Raskutti

Conformal prediction (CP) generates a set of predictions for a given test sample such that the prediction set almost always contains the true label (e.g., 99.5\% of the time). CP provides comprehensive predictions on possible labels of a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-12 Yizhe Zhang , Shuo Wang , Yejia Zhang , Danny Z. Chen

Post-hoc calibration of pre-trained models is critical for ensuring reliable inference, especially in safety-critical domains such as healthcare. Conformal Prediction (CP) offers a robust post-hoc calibration framework, providing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-22 Haifeng Wen , Hong Xing , Osvaldo Simeone

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a popular method for uncertainty quantification that converts a pretrained model's point prediction into a prediction set, with the set size reflecting the model's confidence. Although existing CP methods are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-18 Shuqi Liu , Jianguo Huang , Luke Ong

Operating System (OS) fingerprinting is critical for network security, but conventional methods do not provide formal uncertainty quantification mechanisms. Conformal Prediction (CP) could be directly wrapped around existing methods to…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2026-02-16 Rubén Pérez-Jove , Osvaldo Simeone , Alejandro Pazos , Jose Vázquez-Naya

Conformal prediction (CP) provides sets of candidate classes with a guaranteed probability of containing the true class. However, it typically relies on a calibration set with clean labels. We address privacy-sensitive scenarios where the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-08 Coby Penso , Bar Mahpud , Jacob Goldberger , Or Sheffet

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a powerful statistical machine learning tool to construct uncertainty sets with coverage guarantees, which has fueled its extensive adoption in generating prediction regions for decision-making tasks, e.g.,…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-10-21 Han Wang , Chao Ning

Conformal prediction (CP) provides a comprehensive framework to produce statistically rigorous uncertainty sets for black-box machine learning models. To further improve the efficiency of CP, conformal correction is proposed to fine-tune or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-03 Senrong Xu , Tianyu Wang , Zenan Li , Yuan Yao , Taolue Chen , Feng Xu , Xiaoxing Ma

Conformal Prediction (CP) controls the prediction uncertainty of classification systems by producing a small prediction set, ensuring a predetermined probability that the true class lies within this set. This is commonly done by defining a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-14 Coby Penso , Jacob Goldberger , Ethan Fetaya

The conformalClassification package implements Transductive Conformal Prediction (TCP) and Inductive Conformal Prediction (ICP) for classification problems. Conformal Prediction (CP) is a framework that complements the predictions of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-04-17 Niharika Gauraha , Ola Spjuth

Modern deep learning based classifiers show very high accuracy on test data but this does not provide sufficient guarantees for safe deployment, especially in high-stake AI applications such as medical diagnosis. Usually, predictions are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-09 David Stutz , Krishnamurthy , Dvijotham , Ali Taylan Cemgil , Arnaud Doucet

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a distribution-free uncertainty estimation framework that constructs prediction sets guaranteed to contain the true answer with a user-specified probability. Intuitively, the size of the prediction set encodes a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-18 Alvaro H. C. Correia , Fabio Valerio Massoli , Christos Louizos , Arash Behboodi