Related papers: A General CoVaR Based on Entropy Pooling
We consider calculation of capital requirements when the underlying economic scenarios are determined by simulatable risk factors. In the respective nested simulation framework, the goal is to estimate portfolio tail risk, quantified via…
In this paper, we proposed a multivariate normality test based on copula entropy. The test statistic is defined as the difference between the copula entropies of unknown distribution and the Gaussian distribution with same covariances. The…
Basel II and Solvency 2 both use the Value-at-Risk (VaR) as the risk measure to compute the Capital Requirements. In practice, to calibrate the VaR, a normal approximation is often chosen for the unknown distribution of the yearly log…
This paper discusses the different contemporaneous causal interpretations of Panel Vector Autoregressions (PVAR). I show that the interpretation of PVARs depends on the distribution of the causing variable, and can range from average…
We propose a novel distributional regression model for a multivariate response vector based on a copula process over the covariate space. It uses the implicit copula of a Gaussian multivariate regression, which we call a ``regression…
We investigate the quantification of demographic risk in a framework consistent with the market-consistent valuation imposed by Solvency II. We provide compact formulas for evaluating inflows and outflows of a portfolio of insurance…
This article focuses on covariance estimation for multi-view data. Popular approaches rely on factor-analytic decompositions that have shared and view-specific latent factors. Posterior computation is conducted via expensive and brittle…
In this paper, we propose a neural network-based method for CVA computations of a portfolio of derivatives. In particular, we focus on portfolios consisting of a combination of derivatives, with and without true optionality, \textit{e.g.,}…
This paper forges a strong connection between two seemingly unrelated forecasting problems: incentive-compatible forecast elicitation and forecast aggregation. Proper scoring rules are the well-known solution to the former problem. To each…
In the paper, we use and investigate copulas models to represent multivariate dependence in financial time series. We propose the algorithm of risk measure computation using copula models. Using the optimal mean-$CVaR$ portfolio we compute…
The valuation of over-the-counter derivatives is subject to a series of valuation adjustments known as xVA, which pose additional risks for financial institutions. Associated risk measures, such as the value-at-risk of an underlying…
Panels with large time $(T)$ and cross-sectional $(N)$ dimensions are a key data structure in social sciences and other fields. A central question in panel data analysis is whether to pool data across individuals or to estimate separate…
High precision analytical approximation is proposed for variance-covariance based risk allocation in a portfolio of risky assets. A general case of a single-period multi-factor Merton-type model with stochastic recovery is considered. The…
The starting point for much of multivariate analysis (MVA) is an $n\times p$ data matrix whose $n$ rows represent observations and whose $p$ columns represent variables. Some multivariate data sets, however, may be best conceptualized not…
The dynamic portfolio construction problem requires dynamic modeling of the joint distribution of multivariate stock returns. To achieve this, we propose a dynamic generative factor model which uses random variable transformation as an…
We propose a multicountry quantile factor augmeneted vector autoregression (QFAVAR) to model heterogeneities both across countries and across characteristics of the distributions of macroeconomic time series. The presence of quantile…
Value-at-risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) are two commonly utilized metrics for quantifying financial risk. In this study, we review the widely employed Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models. These…
Generalized variational inference (GVI) provides an optimization-theoretic framework for statistical estimation that encapsulates many traditional estimation procedures. The typical GVI problem is to compute a distribution of parameters…
This paper addresses the problem of steering a state distribution over a finite horizon in discrete time with output feedback. The incorporation of output feedback introduces additional challenges arising from the statistical coupling…
This paper investigates how to measure common market risk factors using newly proposed Panel Quantile Regression Model for Returns. By exploring the fact that volatility crosses all quantiles of the return distribution and using penalized…