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Observational studies developing causal machine learning (ML) models for the prediction of individualized treatment effects (ITEs) seldom conduct empirical evaluations to assess the conditional exchangeability assumption. We aimed to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-31 Gerard T. Portela , Jason B. Gibbons , Sebastian Schneeweiss , Rishi J. Desai

Patient privacy is a major barrier to healthcare AI. For confidentiality reasons, most patient data remains in silo in separate hospitals, preventing the design of data-driven healthcare AI systems that need large volumes of patient data to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-11 Tatsuki Koga , Kamalika Chaudhuri , David Page

Methods for estimating heterogeneous treatment effect in observational data have largely focused on continuous or binary outcomes, and have been relatively less vetted with survival outcomes. Using flexible machine learning methods in the…

Applications · Statistics 2021-07-09 Liangyuan Hu , Jiayi Ji , Fan Li

When making treatment selection decisions, it is essential to include a causal effect estimation analysis to compare potential outcomes under different treatments or controls, assisting in optimal selection. However, merely estimating…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-08 Sherly Alfonso-Sánchez , Kristina P. Sendova , Cristián Bravo

This paper provides a link between causal inference and machine learning techniques - specifically, Classification and Regression Trees (CART) - in observational studies where the receipt of the treatment is not randomized, but the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-05-23 Falco J. Bargagli-Stoffi , Giorgio Gnecco

Uplift modeling is widely used in performance marketing to estimate effects of promotion campaigns (e.g., increase of customer retention rate). Since it is impossible to observe outcomes of a recipient in treatment (e.g., receiving a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-18 Yao Zhao , Haipeng Zhang , Shiwei Lyu , Ruiying Jiang , Jinjie Gu , Guannan Zhang

The study proposes an advanced machine learning approach to predict spine surgery outcomes by incorporating oversampling techniques and grid search optimization. A variety of models including GaussianNB, ComplementNB, KNN, Decision Tree,…

Causal inference in observational studies with high-dimensional covariates presents significant challenges. We introduce CausalBGM, an AI-powered Bayesian generative modeling approach that captures the causal relationship among covariates,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-23 Qiao Liu , Wing Hung Wong

To test the hypothesis that accuracy, discrimination, and precision in predicting postoperative complications improve when using both preoperative and intraoperative data input features versus preoperative data alone. Models that predict…

Causal effect estimation under observational studies is challenging due to the lack of ground truth data and treatment assignment bias. Though various methods exist in literature for addressing this problem, most of them ignore…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-12-11 Abhinav Thorat , Ravi Kolla , Niranjan Pedanekar

Counterfactual causal inference faces significant challenges when extended to multi-category, multi-valued treatments, where complex cross-effects between heterogeneous interventions are difficult to model. Existing methodologies remain…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-04 Xiaopeng Ke , Yihan Yu , Ruyue Zhang , Zhishuo Zhou , Fangzhou Shi , Chang Men , Zhengdan Zhu

We study the problem of estimation of Individual Treatment Effects (ITE) in the context of multiple treatments and networked observational data. Leveraging the network information, we aim to utilize hidden confounders that may not be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-20 Abhinav Thorat , Ravi Kolla , Niranjan Pedanekar , Naoyuki Onoe

While causal models are becoming one of the mainstays of machine learning, the problem of uncertainty quantification in causal inference remains challenging. In this paper, we study the causal data fusion problem, where datasets pertaining…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-06-08 Siu Lun Chau , Jean-François Ton , Javier González , Yee Whye Teh , Dino Sejdinovic

When drawing causal inferences about the effects of multiple treatments on clustered survival outcomes using observational data, we need to address implications of the multilevel data structure, multiple treatments, censoring and unmeasured…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-02-18 Liangyuan Hu , Jiayi Ji , Ronald D. Ennis , Joseph W. Hogan

Instrumental variables (IVs) are widely used for estimating causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding. Under the standard IV model, however, the average treatment effect (ATE) is only partially identifiable. To address this,…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-01-08 Linbo Wang , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

In causal inference, estimating heterogeneous treatment effects (HTE) is critical for identifying how different subgroups respond to interventions, with broad applications in fields such as precision medicine and personalized advertising.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-02 Jiehui Zhou , Linxiao Yang , Xingyu Liu , Xinyue Gu , Liang Sun , Wei Chen

Estimation of causal effects using machine learning methods has become an active research field in econometrics. In this paper, we study the finite sample performance of meta-learners for estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects under…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-02-01 Gabriel Okasa

We study how to learn treatment policies from multimodal electronic health records (EHRs) that consist of tabular data and clinical text. These policies can help physicians make better treatment decisions and allocate healthcare resources…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-21 Henri Arno , Thomas Demeester

Integrative analysis of multiple datasets for estimating optimal individualized treatment rules (ITRs) can enhance decision efficiency. A central challenge is posterior shift, wherein the conditional distribution of potential outcomes given…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-09 Wenhai Cui , Wen Su , Xingqiu Zhao

Observational studies have recently received significant attention from the machine learning community due to the increasingly available non-experimental observational data and the limitations of the experimental studies, such as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-26 Vinod Kumar Chauhan , Soheila Molaei , Marzia Hoque Tania , Anshul Thakur , Tingting Zhu , David A. Clifton
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