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Misclassification detection is an important problem in machine learning, as it allows for the identification of instances where the model's predictions are unreliable. However, conventional uncertainty measures such as Shannon entropy do…

Precise day-ahead forecasts for electricity prices are crucial to ensure efficient portfolio management, support strategic decision-making for power plant operations, enable efficient battery storage optimization, and facilitate demand…

Techniques for understanding the functioning of complex machine learning models are becoming increasingly popular, not only to improve the validation process, but also to extract new insights about the data via exploratory analysis. Though…

With the widespread success of deep neural networks in science and technology, it is becoming increasingly important to quantify the uncertainty of the predictions produced by deep learning. In this paper, we introduce a new method that…

Most machine learning techniques are based upon statistical learning theory, often simplified for the sake of computing speed. This paper is focused on the uncertainty aspect of mathematical modeling in machine learning. Regression analysis…

In chemistry, deep neural network models have been increasingly utilized in a variety of applications such as molecular property predictions, novel molecule designs, and planning chemical reactions. Despite the rapid increase in the use of…

Deep learning has revolutionized modern data science. However, how to accurately quantify the uncertainty of predictions from large-scale deep neural networks (DNNs) remains an unresolved issue. To address this issue, we introduce a novel…

Uncertainty Quantification aims to determine when the prediction from a Machine Learning model is likely to be wrong. Computer Vision research has explored methods for determining epistemic uncertainty (also known as model uncertainty),…

Uncertainty estimation for machine learning models is of high importance in many scenarios such as constructing the confidence intervals for model predictions and detection of out-of-distribution or adversarially generated points. In this…

Electricity load forecasting plays an important role in the energy planning such as generation and distribution. However, the nonlinearity and dynamic uncertainties in the smart grid environment are the main obstacles in forecasting…

Electricity price forecasting has become a critical tool for decision-making in energy markets, particularly as the increasing penetration of renewable energy introduces greater volatility and uncertainty. Historically, research in this…

The topic of deep learning has seen a surge of interest in recent years both within and outside of the field of Statistics. Deep models leverage both nonlinearity and interaction effects to provide superior predictions in many cases when…

Weather forecasting is usually solved through numerical weather prediction (NWP), which can sometimes lead to unsatisfactory performance due to inappropriate setting of the initial states. In this paper, we design a data-driven method…

Interest has been growing in decision-focused machine learning methods which train models to account for how their predictions are used in downstream optimization problems. Doing so can often improve performance on subsequent decision…

A rise in popularity of Deep Neural Networks (DNNs), attributed to more powerful GPUs and widely available datasets, has seen them being increasingly used within safety-critical domains. One such domain, self-driving, has benefited from…

In this paper, we approach the problem of uncertainty quantification in deep learning through a predictive framework, which captures uncertainty in model parameters by specifying our assumptions about the predictive distribution of unseen…

Modern deep models for summarization attains impressive benchmark performance, but they are prone to generating miscalibrated predictive uncertainty. This means that they assign high confidence to low-quality predictions, leading to…

The superior performance of some of today's state-of-the-art deep learning models is to some extent owed to extensive (self-)supervised contrastive pretraining on large-scale datasets. In contrastive learning, the network is presented with…

This study aims to improve the spatial representation of uncertainties when regressing surface wind speeds from large-scale atmospheric predictors for sub-seasonal forecasting. Sub-seasonal forecasting often relies on large-scale…

Due to their increasing spread, confidence in neural network predictions became more and more important. However, basic neural networks do not deliver certainty estimates or suffer from over or under confidence. Many researchers have been…