Related papers: Uncertainty Quantification of Large Language Model…
Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a set of techniques for Bayesian inference when the likelihood is intractable but sampling from the model is possible. This work presents a simple yet effective ABC algorithm based on the…
Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in applications requiring factual accuracy, yet their outputs often contain hallucinated responses. While fact-checking can mitigate these errors, existing methods typically retrieve…
Large language models (LLMs) have shown strong results on a range of applications, including regression and scoring tasks. Typically, one obtains outputs from an LLM via autoregressive sampling from the model's output distribution. We show…
A common problem in natural sciences is the comparison of competing models in the light of observed data. Bayesian model comparison provides a statistically sound framework for this comparison based on the evidence each model provides for…
Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) are likelihood-free Monte Carlo methods. ABC methods use a comparison between simulated data, using different parameters drew from a prior distribution, and observed data. This comparison process is…
Large language models (LLMs) produce outputs with varying levels of uncertainty, and, just as often, varying levels of correctness; making their practical reliability far from guaranteed. To quantify this uncertainty, we systematically…
Uncertainty decomposition refers to the task of decomposing the total uncertainty of a predictive model into aleatoric (data) uncertainty, resulting from inherent randomness in the data-generating process, and epistemic (model) uncertainty,…
Over the past decade, the field of forensic science has received recommendations from the National Research Council of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, the U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology, and the U.S. President's…
Large language models (LLMs) increasingly help people solve problems, from debugging code to repairing machinery. This process requires generating plausible hypotheses from partial descriptions, then updating them as more information…
Large Language Models (LLMs) excel in text generation, reasoning, and decision-making, enabling their adoption in high-stakes domains such as healthcare, law, and transportation. However, their reliability is a major concern, as they often…
Approximate Bayesian computation methods can be used to evaluate posterior distributions without having to calculate likelihoods. In this paper we discuss and apply an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) method based on sequential Monte…
Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) methods have gained in their popularity over the last decade because they expand the horizon of Bayesian parameter inference methods to the range of models for which only forward simulation is…
B\'ezier simplex fitting algorithms have been recently proposed to approximate the Pareto set/front of multi-objective continuous optimization problems. These new methods have shown to be successful at approximating various shapes of Pareto…
Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) and synthetic likelihood (SL) techniques have enabled the use of Bayesian inference for models that may be simulated, but for which the likelihood cannot be evaluated pointwise at values of an unknown…
Prompt optimization algorithms for Large Language Models (LLMs) excel in multi-step reasoning but still lack effective uncertainty estimation. This paper introduces a benchmark dataset to evaluate uncertainty metrics, focusing on Answer,…
Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is now an established technique for statistical inference used in cases where the likelihood function is computationally expensive or not available. It relies on the use of a~model that is specified in…
Bayesian inference is often implemented using approximations, which can yield interval estimates that are too narrow, not fully capturing the uncertainty in the posterior distribution. We address the question of how to adjust these…
Many domain experts do not have the time or expertise to write formal Bayesian models. This paper takes an informal problem description as input, and combines a large language model and a probabilistic programming language to define a joint…
Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a class of algorithmic methods in Bayesian inference using statistical summaries and computer simulations. ABC has become popular in evolutionary genetics and in other branches of biology. However…
The ability to efficiently infer system parameters is essential in any signal-processing task that requires fast operation. Dealing with quantum systems, a serious challenge arises due to substantial growth of the underlying Hilbert space…