Related papers: Sharp Large Deviations and Gibbs Conditioning for …

In this paper, we present large deviation theory that characterizes the exponential estimate for rare events of stochastic dynamical systems in the limit of weak noise. We aim to consider next-to-leading-order approximation for more…

We consider fully connected and feedforward deep neural networks with dependent and possibly heavy-tailed weights, as introduced in [26], to address limitations of the standard Gaussian prior. It has been proved in [26] that, as the number…

We analyze the \textit{Large Deviation Probability (LDP)} of linear factor models generated from non-identically distributed components with \textit{regularly-varying} tails, a large subclass of heavy tailed distributions. An efficient…

We present an analytical technique to compute the probability of rare events in which the largest eigenvalue of a random matrix is atypically large (i.e.\ the right tail of its large deviations). The results also transfer to the left tail…

Variational inference has become one of the most widely used methods in latent variable modeling. In its basic form, variational inference employs a fully factorized variational distribution and minimizes its KL divergence to the posterior.…

Motivated by the prominence of Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) as a measure for tail risk in settings affected by uncertainty, we develop a new formula for approximating CVaR based optimization objectives and their gradients from limited…

The key to successful statistical analysis of bivariate extreme events lies in flexible modelling of the tail dependence relationship between the two variables. In the extreme value theory literature, various techniques are available to…

In many areas of interest, modern risk assessment requires estimation of the extremal behaviour of sums of random variables. We derive the first order upper-tail behaviour of the weighted sum of bivariate random variables under weak…

We show bounds on tail probabilities for quadratic forms in sub-gaussian non-necessarily independent random variables. Our main tool will be estimates of the Luxemburg norms of such forms. This will allow us to formulate the above-mentioned…

We develop a new probabilistic and geometric method to obtain several sharp results pertaining to the upper tail behavior of continuum Gibbs measures on infinite ensembles of random continuous curves, also known as line ensembles,…

Extreme value theory provides an asymptotically justified framework for estimation of exceedance probabilities in regions where few or no observations are available. For multivariate tail estimation, the strength of extremal dependence is…

What does an Erdos-Renyi graph look like when a rare event happens? This paper answers this question when p is fixed and n tends to infinity by establishing a large deviation principle under an appropriate topology. The formulation and…

The local Rademacher complexity framework is one of the most successful general-purpose toolboxes for establishing sharp excess risk bounds for statistical estimators based on the framework of empirical risk minimization. Applying this…

This paper proposes methods for Bayesian inference in time-varying parameter (TVP) quantile regression (QR) models featuring conditional heteroskedasticity. I use data augmentation schemes to render the model conditionally Gaussian and…

In this work, we study the convergence \emph{in high probability} of clipped gradient methods when the noise distribution has heavy tails, ie., with bounded $p$th moments, for some $1<p\le2$. Prior works in this setting follow the same…

Regular variation is often used as the starting point for modeling multivariate heavy-tailed data. A random vector is regularly varying if and only if its radial part $R$ is regularly varying and is asymptotically independent of the angular…

In this paper we propagate a large deviations approach for proving limit theory for (generally) multivariate time series with heavy tails. We make this notion precise by introducing regularly varying time series. We provide general large…

Datasets with extreme observations and/or heavy-tailed error distributions are commonly encountered and should be analyzed with careful consideration of these features from a statistical perspective. Small deviations from an assumed model,…

We establish a sharp large deviation principle for renewal-reward processes, supposing that each renewal involves a broad-sense reward taking values in a real separable Banach space. In fact, we demonstrate a weak large deviation principle…

We extend the Gibbs conditioning principle to an abstract setting combining infinitely many linear equality constraints and non-linear inequality constraints, which need not be convex. A conditional large large deviation principle (LDP) is…