Related papers: Modelling Cascading Physical Climate Risk in Suppl…

Localized shocks arising from climate extremes, geopolitical conflicts, and trade protectionism cascade through trade networks, triggering global food crises. Cross-product substitution, a critical response strategy, induces cross-product…

Reliable estimates of indirect economic losses arising from natural disasters are currently out of scientific reach. To address this problem, we propose a novel approach that combines a probabilistic physical damage catastrophe model with a…

Interconnected agents such as firms in a supply chain make simultaneous preparatory investments to increase chances of honouring their respective bilateral agreements. Failures cascade: if one fails their agreement, then so do all who…

The dynamic network of relationships among corporations underlies cascading economic failures including the current economic crisis, and can be inferred from correlations in market value fluctuations. We analyze the time dependence of the…

Industrial symbiosis involves creating integrated cycles of by-products and waste between networks of industrial actors in order to maximize economic value, while at the same time minimizing environmental strain. In such a network, the…

Modeling the risk of extreme weather events in a changing climate is essential for developing effective adaptation and mitigation strategies. Although the available low-resolution climate models capture different scenarios, accurate risk…

In the event that a bacteriological or chemical toxin is intro- duced to a water distribution network, a large population of consumers may become exposed to the contaminant. A contamination event may be poorly predictable dynamic process…

The growing prevalence of extreme weather events driven by climate change poses significant challenges to power system resilience. Infrastructure damage and prolonged power outages highlight the urgent need for effective grid-hardening…

Chaotic systems, such as turbulent flows, are ubiquitous in science and engineering. However, their study remains a challenge due to the large range scales, and the strong interaction with other, often not fully understood, physics. As a…

With rising global temperatures Earth's tipping elements are becoming increasingly more vulnerable to crossing their critical thresholds. The reaching of such tipping points does not only impact other tipping elements through their…

Climate change impacts a broad spectrum of human resources and activities, necessitating the use of climate models to project long-term effects and inform mitigation and adaptation strategies. These models generate multiple datasets by…

This paper introduces a data-driven graphical framework for the real-time search of risky cascading fault chains (FCs) in power-grids, crucial for enhancing grid resiliency in the face of climate change. As extreme weather events driven by…

Extreme precipitation causes severe societal and economic damage, and weather control has long been discussed as a potential mitigation strategy. However, to the best of our knowledge, perturbation-based interventions for weather control…

More than half of the world's population now lives in urban environments, which concentrate services and infrastructure to satisfy the material needs of a growing number of inhabitants. The interdependencies between physical infrastructure…

Physical risks, such as droughts, floods, rising temperatures, earthquakes, infrastructure failures, and geopolitical conflicts, can ripple through global supply chains, raising costs, and constraining production across industries.…

Climate adaptation could yield significant benefits. However, the uncertainty of which future climate scenarios will occur decreases the feasibility of proactively adapting. Climate adaptation projects could be underwritten by benefits paid…

This paper describes an agent-based model of interacting firms, in which interacting firm agents rationally invest capital and labor in order to maximize payoff. Both transactions and production are taken into account in this model. First,…

This article proposes a fundamental methodological shift in the modelling of policy interventions for sustainability transitions in order to account for complexity (e.g. self-reinforcing mechanism arising from multi-agent interactions) and…

We propose a Statistical-Mechanics inspired framework for modeling economic systems. Each agent composing the economic system is characterized by a few variables of distinct nature (e.g. saving ratio, expectations, etc.). The agents…

In supply chain networks, firms dynamically form or dissolve partnerships to adapt to market fluctuations, posing a challenge for predicting future supply relationships. We model the occurrence of supply edges (firm i to firm j) as a…