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We present Causal Posterior Estimation (CPE), a novel method for Bayesian inference in simulator models, i.e., models where the evaluation of the likelihood function is intractable or too computationally expensive, but where one can…
AC State Estimation (ACSE) is widely recognized as a practical approach for determining the grid states in steady-state conditions. It serves as a fundamental analysis to ensure grid security and is a reference for market dispatch. As grid…
Accelerated life-tests (ALTs) are used for inferring lifetime characteristics of highly reliable products. In particular, step-stress ALTs increase the stress level at which units under test are subject at certain pre-fixed times, thus…
We propose and compare methods for the analysis of extreme events in complex systems governed by PDEs that involve random parameters, in situations where we are interested in quantifying the probability that a scalar function of the…
Increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events motivates the assessment of power system resilience. The random nature of power system failures during these events mandates probabilistic resilience assessment, but…
Passive Gamma Emission Tomography (PGET) is an IAEA-approved technique for verifying spent nuclear fuel assemblies prior to geological disposal. Reconstructing the emission and attenuation maps from PGET measurements is a nonlinear…
Limiting the injection rate to restrict the pressure below a threshold at a critical location can be an important goal of simulations that model the subsurface pressure between injection and extraction wells. The pressure is approximated by…
Studies of the relationships between environmental exposures and adverse health outcomes often rely on a two-stage statistical modeling approach, where exposure is modeled/predicted in the first stage and used as input to a separately fit…
Determining the effective permeability (keff) of geological formations has broad applications to site remediation, aquifer discharge or recharge, hydrocarbon production, and enhanced oil recovery. The objectives of this study are: (1) to…
A first-principles based methodology for efficiently and accurately finding thermodynamically stable and metastable atomic structures is introduced and benchmarked. The approach is demonstrated for gas-phase metal-oxide clusters in…
Enhancing seismic fragility and risk assessment of nuclear power plants relies on accurate prediction of reactor building responses to seismic hazards, which can be further improved through dynamic analysis of high-fidelity finite element…
Several aspects influence corrosive processes in RC structures, such as environmental conditions, structural geometry, and mechanical properties. Since these aspects present large randomnesses, probabilistic models allow a more accurate…
Addressing irregular cutting and packing (C&P) optimization problems poses two distinct challenges: the geometric challenge of determining whether or not an item can be placed feasibly at a certain position, and the optimization challenge…
Damping of structures and systems is often dominated by frictional dissipation in connections, the prediction of which remains a longstanding scientific challenge. Previous studies have shown that the actual topography of contact interfaces…
Accurate prediction of dynamical response of structural system depends on the correct modeling of that system. However, modeling becomes increasingly challenging when there are many candidate models available to describe the system…
Estimating the probability of failure for expensive simulations is a central task in reliability analysis for structural design, power grid design, and safety certification, among other areas. This work derives credible intervals on the…
Successful engineering requires environmentally adapted procedural and architectural approaches. While dealing with complicated issues has become an engineering standard mastering uncertainties in complex environment is still a major issue.…
We propose a continuous-time formulation of persistent contrastive divergence (PCD) for maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) of unnormalised densities. Our approach expresses PCD as a coupled, multiscale system of stochastic differential…
ICS environments are vital to the operation of critical infrastructure such as power grids, water treatment facilities, and manufacturing plants. However, these systems are vulnerable to cyber attacks due to their reliance on interconnected…
To be applicable to real world scenarios trajectory planning schemes for mobile autonomous systems must be able to efficiently deal with obstacles in the area of operation. In the context of optimization based trajectory planning and…