Related papers: Comparing Data Assimilation and Likelihood-Based I…

Data assimilation (DA) integrates observations with model forecasts to produce optimized atmospheric states, whose physical consistency is critical for stable weather forecasting and reliable climate research. Traditional Bayesian DA…

Agent Based Modelling (ABM) is a computational framework for simulating the behaviours and interactions of autonomous agents. As Agent Based Models are usually representative of complex systems, obtaining a likelihood function of the model…

We show that a maximum likelihood approach for parameter estimation in agent-based models (ABMs) of opinion dynamics outperforms the typical simulation-based approach. Simulation-based approaches simulate the model repeatedly in search of a…

Agent-Based Models (ABMs) are used in several fields to study the evolution of complex systems from micro-level assumptions. However, ABMs typically can not estimate agent-specific (or "micro") variables: this is a major limitation which…

A novel strategy is proposed to improve the accuracy of state estimation and reconstruction from low-fidelity models and sparse data from sensors. This strategy combines ensemble Data Assimilation (DA) and Machine Learning (ML) tools,…

Agent-based models (ABM) are gaining traction as one of the most powerful modelling tools within the social sciences. They are particularly suited to simulating complex systems. Despite many methodological advances within ABM, one of the…

Accurately simulating human opinion dynamics is crucial for understanding a variety of societal phenomena, including polarization and the spread of misinformation. However, the agent-based models (ABMs) commonly used for such simulations…

Data assimilation (DA) enables hydrologic models to update their internal states using near-real-time observations for more accurate forecasts. With deep neural networks like long short-term memory (LSTM), using either lagged observations…

Data Assimilation (DA) is a computational tool that uses value from the model and the real measurement to arrive to an optimally acceptable value. Rather, this technique relies on the idea of Kalman gain. We point out that DA has two…

Agent-based models are a powerful tool for studying the behaviour of complex systems that can be described in terms of multiple, interacting ``agents''. However, because of their inherently discrete and often highly non-linear nature, it is…

Data assimilation (DA) plays a pivotal role in numerical weather prediction by systematically integrating sparse observations with model forecasts to estimate optimal atmospheric initial condition for forthcoming forecasts. Traditional…

Agent-Based Modelling (ABM) has emerged as an essential tool for simulating social networks, encompassing diverse phenomena such as information dissemination, influence dynamics, and community formation. However, manually configuring varied…

Data assimilation (DA) aims to estimate the full state of a dynamical system by combining partial and noisy observations with a prior model forecast, commonly referred to as the background. In atmospheric applications, this problem is…

Data assimilation (DA) aims at forecasting the state of a dynamical system by combining a mathematical representation of the system with noisy observations taking into account their uncertainties. State of the art methods are based on the…

Data assimilation (DA) combines model forecasts and observations to estimate the optimal state of the atmosphere with its uncertainty, providing initial conditions for weather prediction and reanalyses for climate research. Yet, existing…

Starting from limited measurements of a turbulent flow, data assimilation (DA) attempts to estimate all the spatio-temporal scales of motion. Success is dependent on whether the system is observable from the measurements, or how much of the…

Data assimilation (DA) in the geophysical sciences remains the cornerstone of robust forecasts from numerical models. Indeed, DA plays a crucial role in the quality of numerical weather prediction, and is a crucial building block that has…

Agent-based modelling (ABMing) is a powerful and intuitive approach to modelling complex systems; however, the intractability of ABMs' likelihood functions and the non-differentiability of the mathematical operations comprising these models…

Data assimilation (DA) is integrated with machine learning in order to perform entirely data-driven online state estimation. To achieve this, recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are implemented as surrogate models to replace key components of…

Agent-based modelling (ABM) is a widespread approach to simulate complex systems. Advancements in computational processing and storage have facilitated the adoption of ABMs across many fields; however, ABMs face challenges that limit their…