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This paper offers a precise analytical characterization of the distribution of returns for a portfolio constituted of assets whose returns are described by an arbitrary joint multivariate distribution. In this goal, we introduce a…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-10-31 D. Sornette , P. Simonetti , J. V. Andersen

This paper introduces a state-dependent momentum framework that integrates ESG regime switching with tail-risk-aware reward-risk metrics. Using a dynamic programming approach and solving a finite-horizon Bellman equation, we construct…

General Economics · Economics 2025-06-02 Ayush Jha , Abootaleb Shirvani , Ali Jaffri , Svetlozar T. Rachev , Frank J. Fabozzi

We investigate time-inconsistent portfolio problems under a broader class of monotone mean-variance (MMV) preferences. Since the optimal strategies for MMV and mean-variance (MV) preferences coincide, the MMV optimal strategies at different…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-04-21 Yike Wang , Yusha Chen , Jingzhen Liu

The question of optimal portfolio is addressed. The conventional Markowitz portfolio optimisation is discussed and the shortcomings due to non-Gaussian security returns are outlined. A method is proposed to minimise the likelihood of…

Physics and Society · Physics 2008-12-02 Robert Kitt , Jaan Kalda

This paper investigates an optimal investment problem under the tail Value at Risk (tail VaR, also known as expected shortfall, conditional VaR, average VaR) and portfolio insurance constraints confronted by a defined-contribution pension…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2023-09-06 Hui Mi , Zuo Quan Xu , Dongfang Yang

Multi-period mean-variance optimization is a long-standing problem, caused by the failure of dynamic programming principle. This paper studies the mean-variance optimization in a setting of finite-horizon discrete-time Markov decision…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-07-31 Li Xia , Zhihui Yu

This paper studies the multi-period mean-variance portfolio allocation problem with transaction costs. Many methods have been proposed these last years to challenge the famous uni-period Markowitz strategy.But these methods cannot integrate…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2023-06-21 Areski Cousin , Jérôme Lelong , Tom Picard

This study presents the Adaptive Minimum-Variance Portfolio (AMVP) framework and the Adaptive Minimum-Risk Rate (AMRR) metric, innovative tools designed to optimize portfolios dynamically in volatile and nonstationary financial markets.…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-01-28 Ayush Jha , Abootaleb Shirvani , Ali Jaffri , Svetlozar T. Rachev , Frank J. Fabozzi

We engineer blockchain based risk managed portfolios by creating three funds with distinct risk and return profiles: 1) Alpha - high risk portfolio; 2) Beta - mimics the wider market; and 3) Gamma - represents the risk free rate adjusted to…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2024-07-16 Ravi Kashyap

We propose a novel model to achieve superior out-of-sample Sharpe ratios. While most research in asset allocation focuses on estimating the return vector and covariance matrix, the first component of our novel model instead forecasts the…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2026-04-07 Nolan Alexander , William Scherer

We introduce L\'evy-Flows, a class of normalizing flow models that replace the standard Gaussian base distribution with L\'evy process-based distributions, specifically Variance Gamma (VG) and Normal-Inverse Gaussian (NIG). These…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-02 Rachid Drissi

Deep reinforcement learning (DRL) has been applied in financial portfolio management to improve returns in changing market conditions. However, unlike most fields where DRL is widely used, the stock market is more volatile and dynamic as it…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-12 Fengchen Gu , Angelos Stefanidis , Ángel García-Fernández , Jionglong Su , Huakang Li

The portfolio optimization problem is a critical issue in asset management and has long been studied. Markowitz's mean-variance model has fundamental limitations, such as the assumption of a normal distribution for returns and sensitivity…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-10-28 Keita Takahashi , Tetsuro Abe , Yasuhito Nakamura , Ryo Hidaka , Shuta Kikuchi , Shu Tanaka

The cryptocurrency market is volatile, non-stationary and non-continuous. Together with liquid derivatives markets, this poses a unique opportunity to study risk management, especially the hedging of options, in a turbulent market. We study…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2022-12-05 Jovanka Lili Matic , Natalie Packham , Wolfgang Karl Härdle

Attaining ultra-reliable communication (URC) in fifth-generation (5G) and beyond networks requires deriving statistics of channel in ultra-reliable region by modeling the extreme events. Extreme value theory (EVT) has been previously…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2024-01-12 Niloofar Mehrnia , Sinem Coleri

Value at risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) are common high quantile-based risk measures adopted in financial regulations and risk management. In this paper, we propose a tail risk measure based on the most probable maximum size of risk…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2025-06-17 Kan Chen , Tuoyuan Cheng

This paper explores the applications of the 20/60/20 rule-a heuristic method that segments data into top-performing, average-performing, and underperforming groups-in mathematical finance. We review the statistical foundations of this rule…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2025-04-07 Kewin Pączek , Damian Jelito , Marcin Pitera , Agnieszka Wyłomańska

The classical dynamic programming-based optimal stochastic control methods fail to cope with nonseparable dynamic optimization problems as the principle of optimality no longer applies in such situations. Among these notorious nonseparable…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2013-03-06 Xiangyu Cui , Xun Li , Duan Li

As the cornerstone of modern portfolio theory, Markowitz's mean-variance optimization is considered a major model adopted in portfolio management. However, due to the difficulty of estimating its parameters, it cannot be applied to all…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-15 Mengying Zhu , Xiaolin Zheng , Yan Wang , Yuyuan Li , Qianqiao Liang

Traditional Markowitz portfolio optimization constrains daily portfolio variance to a target value, optimising returns, Sharpe or variance within this constraint. However, this approach overlooks the relationship between variance at…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2024-11-22 Revant Nayar , Raphael Douady