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We study the budget allocation problem in online marketing campaigns that utilize previously collected offline data. We first discuss the long-term effect of optimizing marketing budget allocation decisions in the offline setting. To…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-07 Tianchi Cai , Jiyan Jiang , Wenpeng Zhang , Shiji Zhou , Xierui Song , Li Yu , Lihong Gu , Xiaodong Zeng , Jinjie Gu , Guannan Zhang

Sponsored search auctions are commonly modeled as an assignment of a fixed set of slots (positions) to a set of advertisers, with welfare maximization being reducible to a standard matching problem. Motivated by modern ad formats, we study…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2026-05-13 Eleni Batziou , Georgios Birmpas , Georgios Chionas , Piotr Krysta

In this study, we apply reinforcement learning techniques and propose what we call reinforcement mechanism design to tackle the dynamic pricing problem in sponsored search auctions. In contrast to previous game-theoretical approaches that…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2017-11-29 Weiran Shen , Binghui Peng , Hanpeng Liu , Michael Zhang , Ruohan Qian , Yan Hong , Zhi Guo , Zongyao Ding , Pengjun Lu , Pingzhong Tang

Display advertising has traditionally been sold via guaranteed contracts -- a guaranteed contract is a deal between a publisher and an advertiser to allocate a certain number of impressions over a certain period, for a pre-specified price…

Multiagent Systems · Computer Science 2009-10-07 Arpita Ghosh , Preston McAfee , Kishore Papineni , Sergei Vassilvitskii

Auto-bidding is crucial in facilitating online advertising by automatically providing bids for advertisers. While previous work has made great efforts to model bidding environments for better ad performance, it has limitations in…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-03-17 Jiahao Ji , Tianyu Wang , Yeshu Li , Yushen Huo , Zhilin Zhang , Chuan Yu , Jian Xu , Bo Zheng

Motivated by practical constraints in online advertising, we investigate single-parameter auction design for bidders with constraints on their Return On Investment (ROI) -- a targeted minimum ratio between the obtained value and the…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2023-10-04 Hongtao Lv , Xiaohui Bei , Zhenzhe Zheng , Fan Wu

Machine learning in asset pricing typically predicts expected returns as point estimates, ignoring uncertainty. We develop new methods to construct forecast confidence intervals for expected returns obtained from neural networks. We show…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-03-04 Yuan Liao , Xinjie Ma , Andreas Neuhierl , Linda Schilling

Allocating tasks to heterogeneous robot teams in environments with uncertain task requirements is a fundamentally challenging problem. Redundantly assigning multiple robots to such tasks is overly conservative, while purely reactive…

Robotics · Computer Science 2026-03-23 Ben Rossano , Jaein Lim , Jonathan P. How

In online advertising, the inherent complexity and dynamic nature of advertising environments necessitate the use of auto-bidding services to assist advertisers in bid optimization. This complexity is further compounded in multi-channel…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-02-27 Xinxin Yang , Yangyang Tang , Yikun Zhou , Yaolei Liu , Yun Li , Bo Yang

In mechanism design it is typical to impose incentive compatibility and then derive an optimal mechanism subject to this constraint. By replacing the incentive compatibility requirement with the goal of minimizing expected ex post regret,…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2012-08-07 Paul Duetting , Felix Fischer , Pitchayut Jirapinyo , John K. Lai , Benjamin Lubin , David C. Parkes

Conformal prediction has emerged as an effective strategy for uncertainty quantification by modifying a model to output sets of labels instead of a single label. These prediction sets come with the guarantee that they contain the true label…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-28 Haosen Ge , Hamsa Bastani , Osbert Bastani

In digital advertising, Click-Through Rate (CTR) and Conversion Rate (CVR) are very important metrics for evaluating ad performance. As a result, ad event prediction systems are vital and widely used for sponsored search and display…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-07-04 Saeid Soheily Khah , Yiming Wu

Auctions are key for maximizing sellers' revenue and ensuring truthful bidding among buyers. Recently, an approach known as differentiable economics based on machine learning (ML) has shown promise in learning powerful auction mechanisms…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2025-10-02 Roy Maor Lotan , Inbal Talgam-Cohen , Yaniv Romano

Uncertainty quantification is essential in decision-making, especially when joint distributions of random variables are involved. While conformal prediction provides distribution-free prediction sets with valid coverage guarantees, it…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-03 Rui Luo , Zhixin Zhou

In digital advertising, online platforms allocate ad impressions through real-time auctions, where advertisers typically rely on autobidding agents to optimize bids on their behalf. Unlike traditional auctions for physical goods, the value…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2025-09-03 Zhicheng Du , Wei Tang , Zihe Wang , Shuo Zhang

Real-time bidding, as one of the most popular mechanisms for selling online ad slots, facilitates advertisers to reach their potential customers. The goal of bidding optimization is to maximize the advertisers' return on investment (ROI)…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2019-03-01 Manxing Du , Alexander I. Cowen-Rivers , Ying Wen , Phu Sakulwongtana , Jun Wang , Mats Brorsson , Radu State

In many repeated auction settings, participants care not only about how frequently they win but also how their winnings are distributed over time. This problem arises in various practical domains where avoiding congested demand is crucial,…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2025-06-13 Giannis Fikioris , Robert Kleinberg , Yoav Kolumbus , Raunak Kumar , Yishay Mansour , Éva Tardos

Contextual dynamic pricing aims to set personalized prices based on sequential interactions with customers. At each time period, a customer who is interested in purchasing a product comes to the platform. The customer's valuation for the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-03-07 Yiyun Luo , Will Wei Sun , and Yufeng Liu

The ranking and selection problem is a popular framework in the simulation literature for studying optimal information collection. We study a version of this problem in which the simulation output for each design is normally distributed…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-09-03 Jianzhong Du , Ilya O. Ryzhov , Siyang Gao

Online bidding is a classical problem in online decision-making, with applications in resource allocation, hierarchical clustering, and the analysis of approximation algorithms. We study its randomized learning-augmented variant, where an…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2026-05-15 Mathis Degryse , Imrane Saakour , Christoph Dürr , Spyros Angelopoulos