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The computation of the probability of the first-passage time through a given threshold of a stochastic process is a classic problem that appears in many branches of physics. When the stochastic dynamics is markovian, the probability admits…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-05-05 Michele Maggiore , Antonio Riotto

We develop a method based on martingales to study first-passage problems of time-additive observables exiting an interval of finite width in a Markov process. In the limit that the interval width is large, we derive generic expressions for…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-05-14 Izaak Neri

We study and develop the stochastic Markov reward model (sMRM), which extends the Markov chain where transition time/reward as modelled as random variables. Techniques are presented to enable computing first-passage time distributions (or…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-08-16 Irfan Muhammad

We propose a unifying theoretical framework for the analysis of first-passage time distributions in two important classes of stochastic processes in which the diffusivity of a particle evolves randomly in time. In the first class of…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2019-11-05 D. S. Grebenkov

We consider the problem of bounding mean first passage times for a class of continuous-time Markov chains that captures stochastic interactions between groups of identical agents. The quantitative analysis of such probabilistic population…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-04-07 Michael Backenköhler , Luca Bortolussi , Verena Wolf

First passage distributions of semi-Markov processes are of interest in fields such as reliability, survival analysis, and many others. The problem of finding or computing first passage distributions is, in general, quite challenging. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-10 Richard L. Warr

In this paper, we consider a homogeneous Markov process \xi(t;\omega) on an ultrametric space Q_p, with distribution density f(x,t), x in Q_p, t in R_+, satisfying the ultrametric diffusion equation df(x,t)/dt =-Df(x,t). We construct and…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2009-11-13 V. A. Avetisov , A. Kh. Bikulov , A. P. Zubarev

In this paper, we aim to study a stochastic process from a macro point of view, and thus periodic solution of a stochastic process in distributional sense is introduced. We first give the definition and then establish the existence of…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-12-31 Guangying Lv , Hongjun Gao , Jinlong Wei

The Inverse First Passage time problem seeks to determine the boundary corresponding to a given stochastic process and a fixed first passage time distribution. Here, we determine the numerical solution of this problem in the case of a two…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-06-17 Alessia Civallero , Cristina Zucca

We consider a bivariate diffusion process and we study the first passage time of one component through a boundary. We prove that its probability density is the unique solution of a new integral equation and we propose a numerical algorithm…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-05-16 Elisa Benedetto , Laura Sacerdote , Cristina Zucca

We construct and study a fundamental solution of Cauchy's problem for p-adic parabolic equations of a certain the type. The fundamental solution is the transition density of a p-adic Markov process.

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2007-12-06 W. A. Zuniga-Galindo

Motivated by the dynamics of resonant neurons we consider a differentiable, non-Markovian random process $x(t)$ and particularly the time after which it will reach a certain level $x_b$. The probability density of this first passage time is…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-11 T. Verechtchaguina , I. M. Sokolov , L. Schimansky-Geier

We introduce a perturbative method to calculate all moments of the first-passage time distribution in stochastic one-dimensional processes which are subject to both white and coloured noise. This class of non-Markovian processes is at the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2021-02-12 Benjamin Walter , Gunnar Pruessner , Guillaume Salbreux

We study the existence of densities for distributions of piecewise deterministic Markov processes. We also obtain relationships between invariant densities of the continuous time process and that of the process observed at jump times. In…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-06-03 Piotr Gwiżdż , Marta Tyran-Kamińska

We discuss the first passage time problem in the semi-infinite interval, for homogeneous stochastic Markov processes with L{\'e}vy stable jump length distributions $\lambda(x)\sim\ell^{\alpha}/|x|^{1+\alpha}$ ($|x|\gg\ell$), namely,…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-10 Aleksei V. Chechkin , Ralf Metzler , Vsevolod Y. Gonchar , Joseph Klafter , Leonid V. Tanatarov

We consider the boundary crossing problem for time-homogeneous diffusions and general curvilinear boundaries. Bounds are derived for the approximation error of the one-sided (upper) boundary crossing probability when replacing the original…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-08-28 A. N. Downes , K. Borovkov

We solve the first-passage problem for the Heston random diffusion model. We obtain exact analytical expressions for the survival and hitting probabilities to a given level of return. We study several asymptotic behaviors and obtain…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2010-03-25 Jaume Masoliver , Josep Perello

The presence of temporal correlations in random movement trajectories is a widespread phenomenon across biological, chemical and physical systems. The ubiquity of persistent and anti-persistent motion in many natural and synthetic systems…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-07-03 Daniel Marris , Luca Giuggioli

We present rigorous results for the mean first passage time and first passage time statistics for two-channel Markov additive diffusion in a 3-dimensional spherical domain. Inspired by biophysical examples we assume that the particle can…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2017-02-01 Aljaz Godec , Ralf Metzler

The time it takes the fastest searcher out of $N\gg1$ searchers to find a target determines the timescale of many physical, chemical, and biological processes. This time is called an extreme first passage time (FPT) and is typically much…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-12-10 Sean D Lawley
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