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We analyze by means of Granger causality the effect of synergy and redundancy in the inference (from time series data) of the information flow between subsystems of a complex network. Whilst we show that fully conditioned Granger causality…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2015-06-19 Sebastiano Stramaglia , Jesus M. Cortes , Daniele Marinazzo

Probabilistic world models increase data efficiency of model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) by guiding the policy with their epistemic uncertainty to improve exploration and acquire new samples. Moreover, the uncertainty-aware learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-26 Can Bogoclu , Robert Vosshall , Kevin Cremanns , Dirk Roos

This is a comment to the paper 'A study of problems encountered in Granger causality analysis from a neuroscience perspective'. We agree that interpretation issues of Granger Causality in Neuroscience exist (partially due to the historical…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-08-24 Luca Faes , Sebastiano Stramaglia , Daniele Marinazzo

In the post-crisis era, financial regulators and policymakers are increasingly interested in data-driven tools to measure systemic risk and to identify systemically important firms. Granger Causality (GC) based techniques to build networks…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-07-27 Kara Karpman , Samriddha Lahiry , Diganta Mukherjee , Sumanta Basu

Causal analysis and classification of injury severity applying non-parametric methods for traffic crashes has received limited attention. This study presents a methodological framework for causal inference, using Granger causality analysis,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-08 Meghna Chakraborty , Timothy Gates , Subhrajit Sinha

Bayesian doubly robust (DR) causal inference faces a fundamental dilemma: joint modeling of outcome and propensity score suffers from the feedback problem where outcome information contaminates propensity score estimation, while two-step…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-05 Shunichiro Orihara , Tomotaka Momozaki , Shonosuke Sugasawa

Granger causality is among the widely used data-driven approaches for causal analysis of time series data with applications in various areas including economics, molecular biology, and neuroscience. Two of the main challenges of this…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-19 Proloy Das , Behtash Babadi

Knowledge Tracing aims to assess student learning states by predicting their performance in answering questions. Different from the existing research which utilizes fixed-length learning sequence to obtain the student states and regards KT…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-31 Ke Cheng , Linzhi Peng , Pengyang Wang , Junchen Ye , Leilei Sun , Bowen Du

This paper explores the potential of the transformer models for learning Granger causality in networks with complex nonlinear dynamics at every node, as in neurobiological and biophysical networks. Our study primarily focuses on a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-21 Ziyu Lu , Anika Tabassum , Shruti Kulkarni , Lu Mi , J. Nathan Kutz , Eric Shea-Brown , Seung-Hwan Lim

When a dynamical system can be modeled as a sequence of observations, Granger causality is a powerful approach for detecting predictive interactions between its variables. However, traditional Granger causal inference has limited utility in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-20 Rohit Singh , Alexander P. Wu , Bonnie Berger

In the field of artificial intelligence (AI), the quest to understand and model data-generating processes (DGPs) is of paramount importance. Deep generative models (DGMs) have proven adept in capturing complex data distributions but often…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-19 Guanglin Zhou , Shaoan Xie , Guang-Yuan Hao , Shiming Chen , Biwei Huang , Xiwei Xu , Chen Wang , Liming Zhu , Lina Yao , Kun Zhang

Characterising cause-effect relationships in complex systems is fundamental to understanding their underlying mechanisms. Granger causality (GC) remains a widely used computational tool for identifying causal relationships in time series…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-26 S. A. Adedayo

Doubly robust estimators with cross-fitting have gained popularity in causal inference due to their favorable structure-agnostic error guarantees. However, when additional structure, such as H\"{o}lder smoothness, is available then more…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-05-08 Alec McClean , Sivaraman Balakrishnan , Edward H. Kennedy , Larry Wasserman

This article proposes a systematic methodological review and objective criticism of existing methods enabling the derivation of time-varying Granger-causality statistics in neuroscience. The increasing interest and the huge number of…

Applications · Statistics 2017-04-12 Sezen Cekic , Didier Grandjean , Olivier Renaud

The prevailing graph neural network models have achieved significant progress in graph representation learning. However, in this paper, we uncover an ever-overlooked phenomenon: the pre-trained graph representation learning model tested…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-14 Hang Gao , Jiangmeng Li , Wenwen Qiang , Lingyu Si , Bing Xu , Changwen Zheng , Fuchun Sun

This paper proposes a distributed dual gradient tracking algorithm (DDGT) to solve resource allocation problems over an unbalanced network, where each node in the network holds a private cost function and computes the optimal resource by…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-08-25 Jiaqi Zhang , Keyou You , Kai Cai

This report reviews the conceptual and theoretical links between Granger causality and directed information theory. We begin with a short historical tour of Granger causality, concentrating on its closeness to information theory. The…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2015-06-12 Pierre-Olivier Amblard , Olivier J. J. Michel

Stochastic gradient descent in continuous time (SGDCT) provides a computationally efficient method for the statistical learning of continuous-time models, which are widely used in science, engineering, and finance. The SGDCT algorithm…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-10-31 Justin Sirignano , Konstantinos Spiliopoulos

We here focus on the task of learning Granger causality matrices for multivariate point processes. In order to accomplish this task, our work is the first to explore the use of Wold processes. By doing so, we are able to develop…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2018-12-04 Flavio Figueiredo , Guilherme Borges , Pedro O. S. Vaz de Melo , Renato M. Assunção

The vast majority of literature on evaluating the significance of a treatment effect based on observational data has been confined to discrete treatments. These methods are not applicable to drawing inference for a continuous treatment,…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-23 Charles R. Doss , Guangwei Weng , Lan Wang , Ira Moscovice , Tongtan Chantarat
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