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Conformal Predictors (CP) are wrappers around ML models, providing error guarantees under weak assumptions on the data distribution. They are suitable for a wide range of problems, from classification and regression to anomaly detection.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-06 Giovanni Cherubin , Konstantinos Chatzikokolakis , Martin Jaggi

Learning exists in the context of data, yet notions of confidence typically focus on model predictions, not label quality. Confident learning (CL) is an alternative approach which focuses instead on label quality by characterizing and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-08-23 Curtis G. Northcutt , Lu Jiang , Isaac L. Chuang

In astronomy, we frequently face the decision problem: does this data contain a signal? Typically, a statistical approach is used, which requires a threshold. The choice of threshold presents a common challenge in settings where signals and…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2024-06-10 Gregory Ashton , Nicolo Colombo , Ian Harry , Surabhi Sachdev

Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) is a popular regression method, which unlike most Machine Learning techniques, provides estimates of uncertainty for its predictions. These uncertainty estimates however, are based on the assumption that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-29 Harris Papadopoulos

Uncertainty is critical to reliable decision-making with machine learning. Conformal prediction (CP) handles uncertainty by predicting a set on a test input, hoping the set to cover the true label with at least $(1-\alpha)$ confidence. This…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-25 Rui Xu , Yue Sun , Chao Chen , Parv Venkitasubramaniam , Sihong Xie

Machine-learning techniques are essential in modern collider research, yet their probabilistic outputs often lack calibrated uncertainty estimates and finite-sample guarantees, limiting their direct use in statistical inference and…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2025-12-22 Jack Y. Araz , Michael Spannowsky

We present a simple algorithm for identifying and correcting real-valued noisy labels from a mixture of clean and corrupted sample points using Gaussian process regression. A heteroscedastic noise model is employed, in which additive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-30 Yu-Hang Tang , Yuanran Zhu , Wibe A. de Jong

As with many other problems, real-world regression is plagued by the presence of noisy labels, an inevitable issue that demands our attention. Fortunately, much real-world data often exhibits an intrinsic property of continuously ordered…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-26 Chris Dongjoo Kim , Sangwoo Moon , Jihwan Moon , Dongyeon Woo , Gunhee Kim

We address the problem of uncertainty quantification (UQ) in the localization of a sound source within adverse acoustic environments. Estimating the position of the source is influenced by various factors, such as noise and reverberation,…

Audio and Speech Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-01-16 Vadim Rozenfeld , Bracha Laufer Goldshtein

The conformalClassification package implements Transductive Conformal Prediction (TCP) and Inductive Conformal Prediction (ICP) for classification problems. Conformal Prediction (CP) is a framework that complements the predictions of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-04-17 Niharika Gauraha , Ola Spjuth

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a distribution-free method for constructing prediction sets with marginal finite-sample coverage guarantees, making it a suitable framework for reliable uncertainty quantification in safety-critical object…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-05-11 Christopher Ries , Moussa Kassem Sbeyti , Nicolas Bianco , Nadja Klein

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a popular uncertainty quantification method that provides distribution-free, statistically valid prediction sets, assuming that training and test data are exchangeable. In such a case, CP's prediction sets are…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2024-11-19 Linus Jeary , Tom Kuipers , Mehran Hosseini , Nicola Paoletti

Conformal prediction (CP) gives distribution-free coverage for modern vision and language models, but it is often forced to make a ranking decision from a single unstable nonconformity score. Standard CP uses one realization, while…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-25 Jiapeng Zeng , Yogesh Prabhu , Zhanpeng Zeng , Michael A. Newton , Vikas Singh

Accurate uncertainty quantification in graph neural networks (GNNs) is essential, especially in high-stakes domains where GNNs are frequently employed. Conformal prediction (CP) offers a promising framework for quantifying uncertainty by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-06 Seohyeon Cha , Honggu Kang , Joonhyuk Kang

In this paper, we are concerned with image classification with deep convolutional neural networks (CNNs). We focus on the following question: given a set of candidate CNN models, how to select the right one with the best generalization…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-06-01 Bin Liu

Prediction sets capture uncertainty by predicting sets of labels rather than individual labels, enabling downstream decisions to conservatively account for all plausible outcomes. Conformal inference algorithms construct prediction sets…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-10-20 Wenwen Si , Sangdon Park , Insup Lee , Edgar Dobriban , Osbert Bastani

Computational models providing accurate estimates of their uncertainty are crucial for risk management associated with decision making in healthcare contexts. This is especially true since many state-of-the-art systems are trained using the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-09 Hongshu Liu , Nabeel Seedat , Julia Ive

Instance-dependent label noise is realistic but rather challenging, where the label-corruption process depends on instances directly. It causes a severe distribution shift between the distributions of training and test data, which impairs…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-12 Manyi Zhang , Yuxin Ren , Zihao Wang , Chun Yuan

This study explores the robustness of label noise classifiers, aiming to enhance model resilience against noisy data in complex real-world scenarios. Label noise in supervised learning, characterized by erroneous or imprecise labels,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-13 Cheng Zeng , Yixuan Xu , Jiaqi Tian

Machine learning algorithms have grown in sophistication over the years and are increasingly deployed for real-life applications. However, when using machine learning techniques in practical settings, particularly in high-risk applications…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-06 Sukrita Singh , Neeraj Sarna , Yuanyuan Li , Yang Li , Agni Orfanoudaki , Michael Berger