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Augmenting randomized controlled trials (RCTs) with external real-world data (RWD) has the potential to improve the finite sample efficiency of treatment effect estimators. We describe using adaptive targeted maximum likelihood estimation…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-30 Sky Qiu , Jens Tarp , Andrew Mertens , Mark van der Laan

We study the problem of constructing an estimator of the average treatment effect (ATE) with observational data. The celebrated doubly-robust, augmented-IPW (AIPW) estimator generally requires consistent estimation of both nuisance…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-13 Matteo Bonvini , Edward H. Kennedy , Oliver Dukes , Sivaraman Balakrishnan

The inverse probability (IPW) and doubly robust (DR) estimators are often used to estimate the average causal effect (ATE), but are vulnerable to outliers. The IPW/DR median can be used for outlier-resistant estimation of the ATE, but the…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-16 Kazuharu Harada , Hironori Fujisawa

Understanding causal relationships in the presence of complex, structured data remains a central challenge in modern statistics and science in general. While traditional causal inference methods are well-suited for scalar outcomes, many…

In order to evaluate the impact of a policy intervention on a group of units over time, it is important to correctly estimate the average treatment effect (ATE) measure. Due to lack of robustness of the existing procedures of estimating ATE…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-20 Sayoni Roychowdhury , Indrila Ganguly , Abhik Ghosh

We study estimation of the local average treatment effect on the treated ($LATT$) in instrumented difference-in-differences (IDiD) designs with covariates and staggered instrument exposure. We derive the efficient influence function (EIF)…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-05-06 Jonas Skjold Raaschou-Pedersen

Common causal estimands include the average treatment effect (ATE), the average treatment effect of the treated (ATT), and the average treatment effect on the controls (ATC). Using augmented inverse probability weighting methods, parametric…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-23 Roland A. Matsouaka , Yi Liu , Yunji Zhou

This article introduces a new estimator of average treatment effects under unobserved confounding in modern data-rich environments featuring large numbers of units and outcomes. The proposed estimator is doubly robust, combining outcome…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-10-30 Alberto Abadie , Anish Agarwal , Raaz Dwivedi , Abhin Shah

Micro-randomized trials (MRTs) are increasingly used to evaluate mobile health interventions with binary proximal outcomes. Standard inverse probability weighting (IPW) estimators are unbiased but unstable in small samples or under extreme…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-10 Jinho Cha , Eunchan Cha

We consider the problem of estimating the average treatment effect (ATE) when both randomized control trial (RCT) data and external real-world data (RWD) are available. We decompose the ATE estimand as the difference between a pooled-ATE…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-22 Mark van der Laan , Sky Qiu , Jens Magelund Tarp , Lars van der Laan

This paper investigates the estimation and inference of the average treatment effect (ATE) using deep neural networks (DNNs) in the potential outcomes framework. Under some regularity conditions, the observed response can be formulated as…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-12-06 Xinze Du , Yingying Fan , Jinchi Lv , Tianshu Sun , Patrick Vossler

Estimation of the Average Treatment Effect (ATE) is often carried out in 2 steps, wherein the first step, the treatment and outcome are modeled, and in the second step the predictions are inserted into the ATE estimator. In the first steps,…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-21 Mehdi Rostami , Olli Saarela

In this paper, we consider estimation of average treatment effect on the treated (ATT), an interpretable and relevant causal estimand to policy makers when treatment assignment is endogenous. By considering shadow variables that are…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-21 Trinetri Ghosh , Jiawei Shan , Menggang Yu , Jiwei Zhao

This note introduces a doubly robust (DR) estimator for regression discontinuity (RD) designs. RD designs provide a quasi-experimental framework for estimating treatment effects, where treatment assignment depends on whether a running…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-01-28 Masahiro Kato

Common variance estimation methods for weighted average treatment effects (WATEs) in observational studies include nonparametric bootstrap and model-based, closed-form sandwich variance estimation. However, the computational cost of…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-11 Huiyue Li , Yi Liu , Yunji Zhou , Jiajun Liu , Dezhao Fu , Roland A. Matsouaka

We consider evaluating the causal effects of dynamic treatments, i.e. of multiple treatment sequences in various periods, based on double machine learning to control for observed, time-varying covariates in a data-driven way under a…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-06-22 Hugo Bodory , Martin Huber , Lukáš Lafférs

The doubly robust estimator, which models both the propensity score and outcomes, is a popular approach to estimate the average treatment effect in the potential outcome setting. The primary appeal of this estimator is its theoretical…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-11 Kaoru Babasaki , Shonosuke Sugasawa , Kosaku Takanashi , Kenichiro McAlinn

For observational studies, we study the sensitivity of causal inference when treatment assignments may depend on unobserved confounders. We develop a loss minimization approach for estimating bounds on the conditional average treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-11 Steve Yadlowsky , Hongseok Namkoong , Sanjay Basu , John Duchi , Lu Tian

We consider Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimation (TMLE) of weighted average treatment effects (WATEs), a class of causal estimands that reweight the covariate distribution using a specified function of the propensity score. This class…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-02 Yang Liu , Patrick Lopatto , Ivana Malenica

The Doubly Robust (DR) estimation of ATE can be carried out in 2 steps, where in the first step, the treatment and outcome are modeled, and in the second step the predictions are inserted into the DR estimator. The model misspecification in…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-03 Mehdi Rostami , Olli Saarela , Michael Escobar