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Reliable precipitation monitoring is essential for disaster risk reduction, water resources management, and agricultural decision-making. Multi-source satellite observations, particularly the combination of geostationary infrared and…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-05-15 Yunfan Yang , Haofei Sun , Xiuyu Sun , Wei Han , Xiaoze Xu , Xingtao Song , Jun Li , Zhiqiu Gao , Wei Huang , Hao Li

Climate change is causing the intensification of rainfall extremes. Precipitation projections with high spatial resolution are important for society to prepare for these changes, e.g. to model flooding impacts. Physics-based simulations for…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-11-30 Henry Addison , Elizabeth Kendon , Suman Ravuri , Laurence Aitchison , Peter AG Watson

The success of autonomous systems will depend upon their ability to safely navigate human-centric environments. This motivates the need for a real-time, probabilistic forecasting algorithm for pedestrians, cyclists, and other agents since…

Robotics · Computer Science 2017-06-21 Henry O. Jacobs , Owen K. Hughes , Matthew Johnson-Roberson , Ram Vasudevan

High-resolution climatic data are essential to many applications in environmental research. Here we develop a new semi-mechanistic downscaling approach for daily precipitation that incorporates high resolution (30 arc sec) satellite-derived…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2021-10-13 Dirk Nikolaus Karger , Adam M. Wilson , Colin Mahony , Niklaus E. Zimmermann , Walter Jetz

We propose a Bayesian hierarchical model for spatial extremes on a large domain. In the data layer a Gaussian elliptical copula having generalized extreme value (GEV) marginals is applied. Spatial dependence in the GEV parameters are…

We introduce a novel deep learning approach that harnesses the power of generative artificial intelligence to enhance the accuracy of contextual forecasting in sewerage systems. By developing a diffusion-based model that processes…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-11 Nicholas A. Pearson , Francesca Cairoli , Luca Bortolussi , Davide Russo , Francesca Zanello

Due to complex physical phenomena, the distribution of heavy rainfall events is difficult to model spatially. Physically based numerical models can often provide physically coherent spatial patterns, but may miss some important…

Applications · Statistics 2020-03-13 Marco Oesting , Philippe Naveau

Modeling precipitation and its accumulation over time and space is essential for flood risk assessment. In this paper, we analyze rainfall data collected over several years through a micro-scale precipitation sensor network in Montpellier,…

Applications · Statistics 2026-04-23 Chloé Serre-Combe , Nicolas Meyer , Thomas Opitz , Gwladys Toulemonde

Accurate weather prediction is essential for many aspects of life, notably the early warning of extreme weather events such as rainstorms. Short-term predictions of these events rely on forecasts from numerical weather models, in which,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-05 Guoxing Chen , Wei-Chyung Wang

Models of complex dynamical systems like the Earth's climate often involve large numbers of uncertain parameters. Comprehensive exploration of the parameter space is typically prohibitive due to excessive computational costs. Systematic…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-03-27 Daniel Pals , Sebastian Bathiany , Richard Wood , Joel Kuettel , Niklas Boers

Weather radar data are critical for nowcasting and an integral component of numerical weather prediction models. While weather radar data provide valuable information at high resolution, their ground-based nature limits their availability,…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-03-07 Çağlar Küçük , Apostolos Giannakos , Stefan Schneider , Alexander Jann

High concentration episodes for NO$_2$ are increasingly dealt with by authorities through traffic restrictions which are activated when air quality deteriorates beyond certain thresholds. Foreseeing the probability that pollutant…

Applications · Statistics 2020-03-26 Sebastián Pérez Vasseur , José L. Aznarte

Dynamical downscaling is crucial for deriving high-resolution meteorological fields from coarse-scale simulations, enabling detailed analysis for critical applications such as weather forecasting and renewable energy modeling. Generative…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-16 Alessandro Brusaferri , Andrea Ballarino

Accurate prediction of atmospheric optical turbulence in localized environments is essential for estimating the performance of free-space optical systems. Macro-meteorological models developed to predict turbulent effects in one environment…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-10-30 Christopher Jellen , Charles Nelson , John Burkhardt , Cody Brownell

The increasing penetration of embedded renewables makes forecasting net-load, consumption less embedded generation, a significant and growing challenge. Here a framework for producing probabilistic forecasts of net-load is proposed with…

Applications · Statistics 2022-10-06 Jethro Browell , Matteo Fasiolo

Data-driven weather models have advanced global medium-range forecasting, yet high-resolution regional prediction remains challenging due to unresolved multiscale interactions between large-scale dynamics and small-scale processes such as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-31 Weiqi Chen , Wenwei Wang , Qilong Yuan , Lefei Shen , Bingqing Peng , Jiawei Chen , Bo Wu , Liang Sun

While deep learning-based weather forecasting paradigms have made significant strides, addressing extreme weather diagnostics remains a formidable challenge. This gap exists primarily because the diagnostic process demands sophisticated…

Thunderstorms have significant social and economic impacts due to heavy precipitation, hail, lightning, and strong winds, necessitating reliable forecasts. Thunderstorm forecasts based on numerical weather prediction (NWP) often rely on…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-09-12 Kianusch Vahid Yousefnia , Christoph Metzl , Tobias Bölle

Radar and camera fusion yields robustness in perception tasks by leveraging the strength of both sensors. The typical extracted radar point cloud is 2D without height information due to insufficient antennas along the elevation axis, which…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-04-10 Huawei Sun , Hao Feng , Gianfranco Mauro , Julius Ott , Georg Stettinger , Lorenzo Servadei , Robert Wille

Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting (PTSF) plays a critical role in domains requiring accurate and uncertainty-aware predictions for decision-making. However, existing methods offer suboptimal distribution modeling and suffer from a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-03 Chih-Yu Lai , Yu-Chien Ning , Duane S. Boning