Related papers: Holdout cross-validation for large non-Gaussian co…
Gaussian process regression in its most simplified form assumes normal homoscedastic noise and utilizes analytically tractable mean and covariance functions of predictive posterior distribution using Gaussian conditioning. Its…
Optimal experimental design (OED) seeks experiments expected to yield the most useful data for some purpose. In practical circumstances where experiments are time-consuming or resource-intensive, OED can yield enormous savings. We pursue…
The correct use of model evaluation, model selection, and algorithm selection techniques is vital in academic machine learning research as well as in many industrial settings. This article reviews different techniques that can be used for…
A major stage of radio interferometric data processing is calibration or the estimation of systematic errors in the data and the correction for such errors. A stochastic error (noise) model is assumed, and in most cases, this underlying…
A natural method for approximating out-of-sample predictive evaluation is leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) --- we alternately hold out each case from a full data set and then train a Bayesian model using Markov chain Monte Carlo…
Cross-validation can be used to measure a model's predictive accuracy for the purpose of model comparison, averaging, or selection. Standard leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO-CV) requires that the observation model can be factorized into…
The multivariate Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process is used in many branches of science and engineering to describe the regression of a system to its stationary mean. Here we present an $O(N)$ Bayesian method to estimate the drift and diffusion…
Two key tasks in high-dimensional regularized regression are tuning the regularization strength for accurate predictions and estimating the out-of-sample risk. It is known that the standard approach -- $k$-fold cross-validation -- is…
We propose a new pivotal method for estimating high-dimensional matrices. Assume that we observe a small set of entries or linear combinations of entries of an unknown matrix $A\_0$ corrupted by noise. We propose a new method for estimating…
The state-of-the-art methods for estimating high-dimensional covariance matrices all shrink the eigenvalues of the sample covariance matrix towards a data-insensitive shrinkage target. The underlying shrinkage transformation is either…
Monte Carlo (MC) dropout is one of the state-of-the-art approaches for uncertainty estimation in neural networks (NNs). It has been interpreted as approximately performing Bayesian inference. Based on previous work on the approximation of…
In this article we prove that estimator stability is enough to show that leave-one-out cross validation is a sound procedure, by providing concentration bounds in a general framework. In particular, we provide concentration bounds beyond…
Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) sampling methods provide a mechanism for defining distant proposals with high acceptance probabilities in a Metropolis-Hastings framework, enabling more efficient exploration of the state space than standard…
To explore the limits of a stochastic gradient method, it may be useful to consider an example consisting of an infinite number of quadratic functions. In this context, it is appropriate to determine the expected value and the covariance…
Gaussian process (GP) regression is a Bayesian nonparametric method for regression and interpolation, offering a principled way of quantifying the uncertainties of predicted function values. For the quantified uncertainties to be…
The Rosenblatt process is a self-similar non-Gaussian process which lives in second Wiener chaos, and occurs as the limit of correlated random sequences in so-called \textquotedblleft non-central limit theorems\textquotedblright. It shares…
The moving average of the complex modulus of the analytic wavelet transform provides a robust time-scale representation for signals to small time shifts and deformation. In this work, we derive the Wiener chaos expansion of this…
Covariance estimation for matrix-valued data has received an increasing interest in applications. Unlike previous works that rely heavily on matrix normal distribution assumption and the requirement of fixed matrix size, we propose a class…
The global minimum-variance portfolio is a typical choice for investors because of its simplicity and broad applicability. Although it requires only one input, namely the covariance matrix of asset returns, estimating the optimal solution…
This paper develops new variance-reduction techniques for the forward-reflected-backward splitting (FRBS) method to solve a class of possibly nonmonotone stochastic composite inclusions. Unlike unbiased estimators such as mini-batching,…