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We propose a detailed discrete-time model of COVID-19 epidemics coming in two flavours, mean-field and probabilistic. The main contribution lies in several extensions of the basic model that capture i) user mobility - distinguishing…
The initial surge of the COVID-19 pandemic hit Guatemala on March 2020. On a country scale, the epidemic has undergone a fairly well-known and distinguishable initial phase, reaching its peak on mid July 2020. However, the detailed picture…
A study of changes in the transmission of a disease, in particular, a new disease like COVID-19, requires very flexible models which can capture, among others, the effects of non-pharmacological and pharmacological measures, changes in…
In this paper, we model the trajectory of the cumulative confirmed cases and deaths of COVID-19 (in log scale) via a piecewise linear trend model. The model naturally captures the phase transitions of the epidemic growth rate via…
COVID-19 pandemic has brought to the fore epidemiological models which, though describing a wealth of behaviors, have previously received little attention in signal processing literature. In this work, a generalized time-varying…
Diffusion comes anytime and everywhere. If there is a gradient or a potential difference of a quantity a diffusion process happens and this ends if an equilibrium is reached only. The concentration of a species maybe such quantity, or the…
Intent of this research is to explore how mathematical models, specifically Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model, can be utilized to forecast peak outbreak timeline of COVID-19 epidemic amongst a population of interest starting from the…
The rapid transmission of the highly contagious novel coronavirus has been represented through several data-guided approaches across targeted geographies, in an attempt to understand when the pandemic will be under control and imposed…
The investment of time and resources for better strategies and methodologies to tackle a potential pandemic is key to deal with potential outbreaks of new variants or other viruses in the future. In this work, we recreated the scene of a…
We identify the effectiveness of social distancing policies in reducing the transmission of the COVID-19 spread. We build a model that measures the relative frequency and geographic distribution of the virus growth rate and provides…
In this paper, we explore whether the infection-rate of a disease can serve as a robust monitoring variable in epidemiological surveillance algorithms. The infection-rate is dependent on population mixing patterns that do not vary…
A model of interacting agents, following plausible behavioral rules into a world where the Covid-19 epidemic is affecting the actions of everyone. The model works with (i) infected agents categorized as symptomatic or asymptomatic and (ii)…
The declaration of COVID-19 as a pandemic has largely amplified the spread of related information on social media, such as Twitter, Facebook, and WeChat.Unlike the previous studies which focused on how to detect the misinformation or fake…
We study the reported data from the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak in January - May 2020 in 119 countries. We observe that the time series of active cases in individual countries (the difference of the total number of confirmed infections and…
Hawkes stochastic point process models have emerged as valuable statistical tools for analyzing viral contagion. The spatiotemporal Hawkes process characterizes the speeds at which viruses spread within human populations. Unfortunately,…
The COVID-19 pandemic led to widespread interest in epidemiological models. In this context the role of vaccination in influencing the spreading of the disease is of particular interest. There has also been a lot of debate on the role of…
Background: Human behavior shapes infectious disease dynamics, yet its integration into transmission models remains fragmented. Recent epidemics, particularly COVID-19, highlight the need for models capturing adaptation to perceived risk,…
We propose a compartmental mathematical model for the spread of the COVID-19 disease with special focus on the transmissibility of super-spreaders individuals. We compute the basic reproduction number threshold, we study the local stability…
We propose an SEIARD mathematical model to investigate the current outbreak of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Mexico. We conduct a detailed analysis of this model and demonstrate its application using publicly reported data. We calculate…
While COVID-19 has resulted in a significant increase in global mortality rates, the impact of the pandemic on mortality from other causes remains uncertain. To gain insight into the broader effects of COVID-19 on various causes of death,…