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In this work, we consider the off-policy policy evaluation problem for contextual bandits and finite horizon reinforcement learning in the nonstationary setting. Reusing old data is critical for policy evaluation, but existing estimators…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-24 Vincent Liu , Yash Chandak , Philip Thomas , Martha White

Model predictive control can optimally deal with nonlinear systems under consideration of constraints. The control performance depends on the model accuracy and the prediction horizon. Recent advances propose to use reinforcement learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-01 Dean Brandner , Sergio Lucia

The notion of duality -- that a given physical system can have two different mathematical descriptions -- is a key idea in modern theoretical physics. Establishing a duality in lattice statistical mechanics models requires the construction…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-11-08 Andrea E. V. Ferrari , Prateek Gupta , Nabil Iqbal

Estimating the parameters of max-stable parametric models poses significant challenges, particularly when some parameters lie on the boundary of the parameter space. This situation arises when a subset of variables exhibits extreme values…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-08 Anas Mourahib , Anna Kiriliouk , Johan Segers

We define a new class of Bayesian point estimators, which we refer to as risk averse. Using this definition, we formulate axioms that provide natural requirements for inference, e.g. in a scientific setting, and show that for well-behaved…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-03-08 Michael Brand

This paper considers the estimation of treatment effects in randomized experiments with complex experimental designs, including cases with interference between units. We develop a design-based estimation theory for arbitrary experimental…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-05-27 Haoge Chang

In this paper, we study the learning of safe policies in the setting of reinforcement learning problems. This is, we aim to control a Markov Decision Process (MDP) of which we do not know the transition probabilities, but we have access to…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-01-14 Santiago Paternain , Miguel Calvo-Fullana , Luiz F. O. Chamon , Alejandro Ribeiro

Uncertainties from deepening penetration of renewable energy resources have posed critical challenges to the secure and reliable operations of future electric grids. Among various approaches for decision making in uncertain environments,…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-04-16 Xinbo Geng , Le Xie

Many recent developments in causal inference, and functional estimation problems more generally, have been motivated by the fact that classical one-step (first-order) debiasing methods, or their more recent sample-split double…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-06-10 Sivaraman Balakrishnan , Edward H. Kennedy , Larry Wasserman

We derive asymptotic properties of penalized estimators for singular models for which identifiability may break and the true parameter values can lie on the boundary of the parameter space. Selection consistency of the estimators is also…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-01-24 Junichiro Yoshida , Nakahiro Yoshida

Optimum parameter estimation methods require knowledge of a parametric probability density that statistically describes the available observations. In this work we examine Bayesian and non-Bayesian parameter estimation problems under a…

Applications · Statistics 2022-02-01 George V. Moustakides

For effective decision support in scenarios with conflicting objectives, sets of potentially optimal solutions can be presented to the decision maker. We explore both what policies these sets should contain and how such sets can be computed…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-07-19 Willem Röpke , Conor F. Hayes , Patrick Mannion , Enda Howley , Ann Nowé , Diederik M. Roijers

The aim of this paper is twofold. First, three theoretical principles are formalized: randomization, overrepresentation and restriction. We develop these principles and give a rationale for their use in choosing the sampling design in a…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-12-16 Yves Tillé , Matthieu Wilhelm

We provide a new characterization of second-order stochastic dominance, also known as increasing concave order. The result has an intuitive interpretation that adding a risk with negative expected value in adverse scenarios makes the…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2024-09-30 Yuanying Guan , Muqiao Huang , Ruodu Wang

Power-law noises abound in nature and have been observed extensively in both time series and spatially varying environmental parameters. Although, recent years have seen the extension of traditional stochastic partial differential equations…

Computation · Statistics 2014-10-20 Hans-Werner van Wyk , Max Gunzburger , John Burkardt , Miroslav Stoyanov

Functional data analysis is a fast evolving branch of statistics. Estimation procedures for the popular functional linear model either suffer from lack of robustness or are computationally burdensome. To address these shortcomings, a…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-27 Ioannis Kalogridis , Stefan Van Aelst

Signal processing makes extensive use of point estimators and accompanying error bounds. These work well up until the likelihood function has two or more high peaks. When it is important for an estimator to remain reliable, it becomes…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-04 Ning Xu , Christopher M. Foster , Jonathan H. Manton

We first describe a general class of optimization problems that describe many natural, economic, and statistical phenomena. After noting the existence of a conserved quantity in a transformed coordinate system, we outline several instances…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-04-03 David Rushing Dewhurst

Scale-free networks play a fundamental role in the study of complex networks and various applied fields due to their ability to model a wide range of real-world systems. A key characteristic of these networks is their degree distribution,…

Physics and Society · Physics 2025-01-14 Nixon Jerez-Lillo , Francisco A. Rodrigues , Paulo H. Ferreira , Pedro L. Ramos

Power domination is a graph theoretic model which captures how phasor measurement units (PMUs) can be used to monitor a power grid. Fragile power domination takes into account the fact that PMUs may break or otherwise fail. In this model,…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2025-07-22 Beth Bjorkman , Sean English , Johnathan Koch , Amanda Verga