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Numerical climate model simulations run at high spatial and temporal resolutions generate massive quantities of data. As our computing capabilities continue to increase, storing all of the data is not sustainable, and thus it is important…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-02-20 Joseph Guinness , Dorit Hammerling

Accurate prediction of global sea surface temperature at sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescale is critical for drought and flood forecasting, as well as for improving disaster preparedness in human society. Government departments or…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-09-10 Longhao Wang , Xuanze Zhang , L. Ruby Leung , Francis H. S. Chiew , Amir AghaKouchak , Kairan Ying , Yongqiang Zhang

Among the most relevant processes in the Earth system for human habitability are quasi-periodic, ocean-driven multi-year events whose dynamics are currently incompletely characterized by physical models, and hence poorly predictable. This…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-08-09 Matthew Bonas , Christopher K. Wikle , Stefano Castruccio

A large fraction of known terrestrial-size exoplanets located in the Habitable Zone of M-dwarfs are expected to be tidally-locked. Numerous efforts have been conducted to study the climate of such planets, using in particular 3-D Global…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2021-06-09 Maxence Lefèvre , Martin Turbet , Raymond Pierrehumbert

Understanding the earth's climate system and how it might be changing is a preeminent scientific challenge. Global climate models are used to simulate past, present, and future climates, and experiments are executed continuously on an array…

The understanding of the fundamental properties of the climate system has long benefitted from the use of simple numerical models able to parsimoniously represent the essential ingredients of its processes. Here we introduce a new model for…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2020-11-16 Gabriele Vissio , Valerio Lucarini

Physics-based Earth system models (ESMs) are essential for attributing climate change and generating scenario projections, yet their reliance on high-resolution numerical integration makes multi-decadal experiments expensive. In parallel,…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-03-18 Hira Saleem , Flora Salim , Cormac Purcell

The global ocean meridional overturning circulation (GMOC) is central for ocean transport and climate variations. However, a comprehensive picture of its historical mean state and variability remains vague due to limitations in modelling…

Modern weather and climate models share a common heritage, and often even components, however they are used in different ways to answer fundamentally different questions. As such, attempts to emulate them using machine learning should…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-03-21 Duncan Watson-Parris

The response of the climate system to increased greenhouse gases and other radiative perturbations is governed by a combination of fast and slow feedbacks. Slow feedbacks are typically activated in response to changes in ocean temperatures…

Existing machine learning models of weather variability are not formulated to enable assessment of their response to varying external boundary conditions such as sea surface temperature and greenhouse gases. Here we present ACE2 (Ai2…

The oceans play a fundamental role in Earth's climate system, redistributing heat and influencing global and regional climate variability and predictability across weather and climate timescales. The benefits of ocean-atmosphere coupling…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-05-19 Christopher David Roberts , Sarah Keeley , Kristian Mogensen , Charles Pelletier , Hao Zuo

Cloud is critical for planetary climate and habitability, but it is also one of the most challenging parts of studying planets in and beyond the solar system. Here we use a cloud-resolving model (CRM) with high resolution (2 km) in a…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2022-08-17 Qiyu Song , Jun Yang , Hang Luo , Cheng Li , Shizuo Fu

Climate change is one of the most critical challenges that our planet is facing today. Rising global temperatures are already bringing noticeable changes to Earth's weather and climate patterns with an increased frequency of unpredictable…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-01-19 Karandeep Singh , Chaeyoon Jeong , Naufal Shidqi , Sungwon Park , Arjun Nellikkattil , Elke Zeller , Meeyoung Cha

Earth system models (ESMs), which simulate the physics and chemistry of the global atmosphere, land, and ocean, are often used to generate future projections of climate change scenarios. These models are far too computationally intensive to…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2020-11-25 Alexandra Puchko , Robert Link , Brian Hutchinson , Ben Kravitz , Abigail Snyder

Projecting sea-level change in various climate-change scenarios typically involves running forward simulations of the Earth's gravitational, rotational and deformational (GRD) response to ice mass change, which requires high computational…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-11-18 Myungsoo Yoo , Giri Gopalan , Matthew J. Hoffman , Sophie Coulson , Holly Kyeore Han , Christopher K. Wikle , Trevor Hillebrand

Extreme weather is one of the main mechanisms through which climate change will directly impact human society. Coping with such change as a global community requires markedly improved understanding of how global warming drives extreme…

Computational Physics · Physics 2019-09-18 Adam Rupe , Karthik Kashinath , Nalini Kumar , Victor Lee , Prabhat , James P. Crutchfield

Rapid changes in Earth's cryosphere caused by human activity can lead to significant environmental impacts. Computer models provide a useful tool for understanding the behavior and projecting the future of Arctic and Antarctic ice sheets.…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-08-01 Won Chang , Bledar A. Konomi , Georgios Karagiannis , Yawen Guan , Murali Haran

We investigate a coupled atmosphere-ocean model including the mechanical and thermodynamical interaction between the two fluids for the mid-latitudes. The formulation combines a multilayer quasi-geostrophic dynamical framework with…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2025-12-23 Federico Fornasaro , Tobias Kuna , Giulia Carigi

Global Climate Models are key tools for predicting the future response of the climate system to a variety of natural and anthropogenic forcings. Here we show how to use statistical mechanics to construct operators able to flexibly predict…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-11-16 Valerio Lembo , Valerio Lucarini , Francesco Ragone