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Model error estimation remains one of the key challenges in uncertainty quantification and predictive science. For computational models of complex physical systems, model error, also known as structural error or model inadequacy, is often…

Computation · Statistics 2024-03-28 Khachik Sargsyan , Xun Huan , Habib N. Najm

Our understanding of physical systems generally depends on our ability to match complex computational modelling with measured experimental outcomes. However, simulations with large parameter spaces suffer from inverse problem instabilities,…

Plasma Physics · Physics 2020-01-22 M. F. Kasim , T. P. Galligan , J. Topp-Mugglestone , G. Gregori , S. M. Vinko

This paper presents a groundbreaking self-improving interference management framework tailored for wireless communications, integrating deep learning with uncertainty quantification to enhance overall system performance. Our approach…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-25 Hyun-Suk Lee , Do-Yup Kim , Kyungsik Min

Brain foundation models (BFMs) have emerged as a transformative paradigm in computational neuroscience, offering a revolutionary framework for processing diverse neural signals across different brain-related tasks. These models leverage…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-22 Xinliang Zhou , Chenyu Liu , Zhisheng Chen , Kun Wang , Yi Ding , Ziyu Jia , Qingsong Wen

Due to the growing adoption of deep neural networks in many fields of science and engineering, modeling and estimating their uncertainties has become of primary importance. Despite the growing literature about uncertainty quantification in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-15 Brian Staber , Sébastien Da Veiga

Understanding the uncertainty of a neural network's (NN) predictions is essential for many purposes. The Bayesian framework provides a principled approach to this, however applying it to NNs is challenging due to large numbers of parameters…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-02-27 Tim Pearce , Felix Leibfried , Alexandra Brintrup , Mohamed Zaki , Andy Neely

When fine-tuning Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) to new data, DNNs are prone to overwriting network parameters required for task-specific functionality on previously learned tasks, resulting in a loss of performance on those tasks. We propose…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-22 Christopher Angelini , Nidhal Bouaynaya

We present new Bayesian Last Layer neural network models in the setting of multivariate regression under heteroscedastic noise, and propose EM algorithms for parameter learning. Bayesian modeling of a neural network's final layer has the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-02 Han Wang , Eiji Kawasaki , Guillaume Damblin , Geoffrey Daniel

Brain-computer interfaces (BCIs) turn brain signals into functionally useful output, but they are not always accurate. A good Machine Learning classifier should be able to indicate how confident it is about a given classification, by giving…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-17 Joris Suurmeijer , Ivo Pascal de Jong , Matias Valdenegro-Toro , Andreea Ioana Sburlea

Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) have been widely used to obtain solutions to various physical phenomena modeled as Differential Equations. As PINNs are not naturally equipped with mechanisms for Uncertainty Quantification, some…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-05 Pablo Flores , Olga Graf , Pavlos Protopapas , Karim Pichara

Equivariant models leverage prior knowledge on symmetries to improve predictive performance, but misspecified architectural constraints can harm it instead. While work has explored learning or relaxing constraints, selecting among…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-16 Putri A. van der Linden , Alexander Timans , Dharmesh Tailor , Erik J. Bekkers

Uncertainty estimation is pivotal in machine learning, especially for classification tasks, as it improves the robustness and reliability of models. We introduce a novel `Epistemic Wrapping' methodology aimed at improving uncertainty…

The rapid rise of large language models (LLMs) is reshaping the landscape of automatic assessment in education. While these systems demonstrate substantial advantages in adaptability to diverse question types and flexibility in output…

Hyperparameter tuning is a challenging problem especially when the system itself involves uncertainty. Due to noisy function evaluations, optimization under uncertainty can be computationally expensive. In this paper, we present a novel…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-09 Akash Yadav , Ruda Zhang

Deep learning has been shown to be highly effective for automatic modulation classification (AMC), which is a pivotal technology for next-generation cognitive communications. Yet, existing deep learning methods for AMC often lack robust…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-12-03 Huian Yang , Rajeev Sahay

Deep learning has emerged as a transformative methodology in modern cosmology, providing powerful tools to extract meaningful physical information from complex astronomical datasets. This paper implements a novel Bayesian graph deep…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2026-01-28 Juan Alejandro Pinto Castro , Héctor J. Hortúa , Jorge Enrique García-Farieta , Roger Anderson Hurtado

Sparse estimation of the precision matrix under high-dimensional scaling constitutes a canonical problem in statistics and machine learning. Numerous regression and likelihood based approaches, many frequentist and some Bayesian in nature…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-05-20 Peyman Jalali , Kshitij Khare , George Michailidis

Nonlinear dynamics are ubiquitous in science and engineering applications, but the physics of most complex systems is far from being fully understood. Discovering interpretable governing equations from measurement data can help us…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-18 Luning Sun , Daniel Zhengyu Huang , Hao Sun , Jian-Xun Wang

There is a growing interest in the learning-to-learn paradigm, also known as meta-learning, where models infer on new tasks using a few training examples. Recently, meta-learning based methods have been widely used in few-shot…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-13 Anish Madan , Ranjitha Prasad

Comprehensive evaluation of Large Language Models (LLMs) is an open research problem. Existing evaluations rely on deterministic point estimates generated via greedy decoding. However, we find that deterministic evaluations fail to capture…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-04 Yan Scholten , Stephan Günnemann , Leo Schwinn