Related papers: Extrapolation of Tempered Posteriors
In this paper, a method to exactly sample the trajectories of inverse subordinators (in the sense of the finite-dimensional distributions), jointly with the undershooting or overshooting process, is provided. The method applies to general…
The aim of this paper is to discuss both higher-order asymptotic expansions and skewed approximations for the Bayesian Discrepancy Measure for testing precise statistical hypotheses. In particular, we derive results on third-order…
Training-free conditional diffusion provides a flexible alternative to task-specific conditional model training, but existing samplers often allocate computation inefficiently: independent guided trajectories can vary widely in quality, and…
We consider continuous-time sparse stochastic processes from which we have only a finite number of noisy/noiseless samples. Our goal is to estimate the noiseless samples (denoising) and the signal in-between (interpolation problem). By…
Tempered stable distributions are frequently used in financial applications (e.g., for option pricing) in which the tails of stable distributions would be too heavy. Given the non-explicit form of the probability density function,…
Nested error regression models are useful tools for analysis of grouped data, especially in the case of small area estimation. This paper suggests a nested error regression model using uncertain random effects in which the random effect in…
Density tempering (also called density annealing) is a sequential Monte Carlo approach to Bayesian inference for general state models; it is an alternative to Markov chain Monte Carlo. When applied to state space models, it moves a…
This paper presents a Markov chain Monte Carlo method to generate approximate posterior samples in retrospective multiple changepoint problems where the number of changes is not known in advance. The method uses conjugate models whereby the…
A common approach to modelling extreme values is to consider the excesses above a high threshold as realisations of a non-homogeneous Poisson process. While this method offers the advantage of modelling using threshold-invariant extreme…
We present a novel Bayesian framework for inverse problems in which the pos terior distribution is interpreted as the intensity measure of a Poisson point process (PPP). The posterior density is approximated using kernel density estimation,…
Although Bayesian inference is an immensely popular paradigm among a large segment of scientists including statisticians, most applications consider objective priors and need critical investigations (Efron, 2013, Science). While it has…
Using Markov chain Monte Carlo to sample from posterior distributions was the key innovation which made Bayesian data analysis practical. Notoriously, however, MCMC is hard to tune, hard to diagnose, and hard to parallelize. This…
Temperature scaling is a simple method that allows to control the uncertainty of probabilistic models. It is mostly used in two contexts: improving the calibration of classifiers and tuning the stochasticity of large language models (LLMs).…
We present Causal Posterior Estimation (CPE), a novel method for Bayesian inference in simulator models, i.e., models where the evaluation of the likelihood function is intractable or too computationally expensive, but where one can…
Parallel tempering, also known as replica exchange sampling, is an important method for simulating complex systems. In this algorithm simulations are conducted in parallel at a series of temperatures, and the key feature of the algorithm is…
The power-expected-posterior (PEP) prior provides an objective, automatic, consistent and parsimonious model selection procedure. At the same time it resolves the conceptual and computational problems due to the use of imaginary data.…
This paper proposes a novel diffusion-based posterior sampling method within a plug-and-play (PnP) framework. Our approach constructs a probability transport from an easy-to-sample terminal distribution to the target posterior, using a…
We consider a prior for nonparametric Bayesian estimation which uses finite random series with a random number of terms. The prior is constructed through distributions on the number of basis functions and the associated coefficients. We…
We develop a new smoothing or extrapolating method, based on discrete Laguerre functions, for systematically analyzing the stochastic signal of shifted-contour auxiliary-field Monte Carlo. We study the statistical errors and extrapolation…
Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) methods are increasingly used for inference in situations in which the likelihood function is either computationally costly or intractable to evaluate. Extensions of the basic ABC rejection algorithm…