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This paper introduces a novel deep learning method, called DeepWKB, for estimating the invariant distribution of randomly perturbed systems via its Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin (WKB) approximation $u_\epsilon(x) = Q(\epsilon)^{-1}…

To date, the comparison of Statistical Shape Models (SSMs) is often solely performance-based, carried out by means of simplistic metrics such as compactness, generalization, or specificity. Any similarities or differences between the actual…

When estimating the risk of a financial position with empirical data or Monte Carlo simulations via a tail-dependent law invariant risk measure such as the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR), it is important to ensure the robustness of the…

Stochastic model-predictive control (SMPC) has evolved to a powerful framework for the control of stochastic dynamical systems. SMPC utilizes a probabilistic uncertainty description to provide a systematic trade-off between the control…

MCMC methods (Monte Carlo Markov Chain) are a class of methods used to perform simulations per a probability distribution $P$. These methods are often used when we have difficulties to directly sample per a given probability distribution…

Recently, diffusion probabilistic models (DPMs) have achieved promising results in diverse generative tasks. A typical DPM framework includes a forward process that gradually diffuses the data distribution and a reverse process that…

Machine learning models are often evaluated using point estimates of performance metrics such as accuracy, F1 score, or mean squared error. Such summaries fail to capture the inherent variability induced by stochastic elements of the…

We consider the problem of detecting (testing) Gaussian stochastic sequences (signals) with imprecisely known means and covariance matrices. The alternative is independent identically distributed zero-mean Gaussian random variables with…

The Curie-Weiss model is used to study phase transitions in statistical mechanics and has been the object of rigorous analysis in mathematical physics. We analyse the problem of reconstructing the probability measure of a multi-group…

We present a unified theory of the variational Monte Carlo (VMC) and determinant quantum Monte Carlo (DQMC) methods using a novel density matrix formulation of VMC. We introduce an efficient algorithm for VMC to compute correlation…

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for sampling probability density functions (combined with abundant computational resources) have transformed the sciences, especially in performing probabilistic inferences, or fitting models to data.…

We study uncertainty quantification for contextual stochastic optimization, focusing on weighted sample average approximation (wSAA), which uses machine-learned relevance weights based on covariates. Although wSAA is widely used for…

We give algorithms for estimating the expectation of a given real-valued function $\phi:X\to {\bf R}$ on a sample drawn randomly from some unknown distribution $D$ over domain $X$, namely ${\bf E}_{{\bf x}\sim D}[\phi({\bf x})]$. Our…

To comply with increasingly stringent international standards in risk management and regulation, several approaches have been developed in the literature for forecasting tail-risk measures such as Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall…

In this paper, we address the probabilistic error quantification of a general class of prediction methods. We consider a given prediction model and show how to obtain, through a sample-based approach, a probabilistic upper bound on the…

Diffusion models are widely used in applications ranging from image generation to inverse problems. However, training diffusion models typically requires clean ground-truth images, which are unavailable in many applications. We introduce…

We study the typical learning properties of the recently introduced Soft Margin Classifiers (SMCs), learning realizable and unrealizable tasks, with the tools of Statistical Mechanics. We derive analytically the behaviour of the learning…

Stochastic kinetic models (SKMs) are increasingly used to account for the inherent stochasticity exhibited by interacting populations of species in areas such as epidemiology, population ecology and systems biology. Species numbers are…

Many Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods leverage gradient information of the potential function of target distribution to explore sample space efficiently. However, computing gradients can often be computationally expensive for large…

In this work, we present methodologies for the quantification of confidence in bottom-up coarse-grained models for molecular and macromolecular systems. Coarse-graining methods have been extensively used in the past decades in order to…