Related papers: Fundamental limits on taming infectious disease ep…
Restrictions on social and economic activities, as well as vaccinations, have been a key intervention in containing the COVID-19 epidemic. Our work focuses on better understanding the options available to policymakers under the conditions…
Infectious pathogens often propagate by superspreading, which focusses onward transmission on disproportionately few infected individuals. At the same time, infector-infectee pairs tend to have more similar transmission potentials than…
During an epidemic outbreak, individuals often modify their behavior in response to global prevalence cues, using spatially mediated adaptations such as reduced mobility or transmission range. In this work, we investigate the impact of…
Epidemiological contact network models have emerged as an important tool in understanding and predicting the spread of infectious disease, due to their capacity to engage individual heterogeneity that may underlie essential dynamics of a…
Assessing and managing the impact of large-scale epidemics considering only the individual risk and severity of the disease is exceedingly difficult and could be extremely expensive. Economic consequences, infrastructure and service…
We show we can control an epidemic reaction-diffusion on a directed, and heterogeneous, network by redirecting the flows, thanks to the optimisation of well-designed loss functions, in particular the basic reproduction number of the model.…
Despite extensive work on the interplay between traffic dynamics and epidemic spreading, the control of epidemic spreading by routing strategies has not received adequate attention. In this paper, we study the impact of efficient routing…
In settings where interference between units is possible, we define the prevalence of indirect effects to be the number of units who are affected by the treatment of others. This quantity does not fully identify an indirect effect, but may…
Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are crucial for controlling pandemics, but existing research often overlooks the heterogeneity of individual behavior, which can lead to inaccurate evaluations of the effectiveness of strategies. In…
Non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as contact tracing and social distancing, are critical for controlling epidemic outbreaks, yet their dynamic interactions remain underexplored. We introduce a probabilistic framework to analyze the…
Many progresses in the understanding of epidemic spreading models have been obtained thanks to numerous modeling efforts and analytical and numerical studies, considering host populations with very different structures and properties,…
The vanishing epidemic threshold for viruses spreading on scale-free networks indicate that traditional methods, aiming to decrease a virus' spreading rate cannot succeed in eradicating an epidemic. We demonstrate that policies that…
Changes in human behavior are increasingly recognized as a major determinant of epidemic dynamics. Although collective activity can be modified through imposed measures to control epidemic progression, spontaneous changes can also arise as…
Testing is a crucial control mechanism in the beginning phase of an epidemic when the vaccines are not yet available. It enables the public health authority to detect and isolate the infected cases from the population, thereby limiting the…
The fundamental models of epidemiology describe the progression of an infectious disease through a population using compartmentalized differential equations, but do not incorporate population-level heterogeneity in infection susceptibility.…
Networks of person-person contacts form the substrate along which infectious diseases spread. Most network-based studies of the spread focus on the impact of variations in degree (the number of contacts an individual has). However, other…
A recent article that combines normalized epidemic compartmental models and population games put forth a system theoretic approach to capture the coupling between a population's strategic behavior and the course of an epidemic. It…
We consider the problem of controlling an SIR-model epidemic by temporarily reducing the rate of contact within a population. The control takes the form of a multiplicative reduction in the contact rate of infectious individuals. The…
The Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) equations and their extensions comprise a commonly utilized set of models for understanding and predicting the course of an epidemic. In practice, it is of substantial interest to estimate the…
We study extensions of the classical SIR model of epidemic spread. First, we consider a single population modified SIR epidemics model in which the contact rate is allowed to be an arbitrary function of the fraction of susceptible and…