Related papers: Group Survival Probability under Contagion in Micr…
When people collaborate, they expect more in return than a simple sum of their efforts. This observation is at the heart of the so-called public goods game, where the participants' contributions are multiplied by an $r$ synergy factor…
In this work we provide a simple setting that connects the structural modelling approach of Gai-Kapadia interbank networks with the mean-field approach to default contagion. To accomplish this we make two key contributions. First, we…
The question we address here is of whether phenomena of collective bankruptcies are related to self-organized criticality. In order to answer it we propose a simple model of banking networks based on the random directed percolation. We…
Contagion, broadly construed, refers to anything that can spread infectiously from peer to peer. Examples include communicable diseases, rumors, misinformation, ideas, innovations, bank failures, and electrical blackouts. Sometimes, as in…
A probabilistic framework is introduced that represents stylized banking networks and aims to predict the size of contagion events. In contrast to previous work on random financial networks, which assumes independent connections between…
Changes in collateralization have been implicated in significant default (or near-default) events during the financial crisis, most notably with AIG. We have developed a framework for quantifying this effect based on moving between…
Networks of person-person contacts form the substrate along which infectious diseases spread. Most network-based studies of the spread focus on the impact of variations in degree (the number of contacts an individual has). However, other…
Credit capital requirements in Internal Rating Based approaches require the calibration of two key parameters: the probability of default and the loss-given-default. This letter considers the uncertainty about these two parameters and…
For credit risk management purposes in general, and for allocation of regulatory capital by banks in particular (Basel II), numerical assessments of the credit-worthiness of borrowers are indispensable. These assessments are expressed in…
In a previous paper, we applied a field formalism to analyze capital allocation and accumulation within a microeconomic framework of investors and firms. The financial connections were modeled by a field of stakes, representing the links…
We introduce a probabilistic framework that represents stylized banking networks with the aim of predicting the size of contagion events. Most previous work on random financial networks assumes independent connections between banks, whereas…
When assessing group solvency, an important question is to what extent intragroup transfers may be considered, as this determines to which extent diversification can be achieved. We suggest a framework to describe the families of admissible…
The threshold model has been widely adopted as a classic model for studying contagion processes on social networks. We consider asymmetric individual interactions in social networks and introduce a persuasion mechanism into the threshold…
The functionality of an entity frequently necessitates the support of a group situated in another layer of the system. To unravel the profound impact of such group support on a system's resilience against cascading failures, we devise a…
We consider the dynamics of a population spatially structured in colonies that are vulnerable to catastrophic events occurring at random times, which randomly reduce their population size and compel survivors to disperse to neighboring…
We analytically address disease outbreaks in large, random networks with heterogeneous infectivity and susceptibility. The transmissibility $T_{uv}$ (the probability that infection of $u$ causes infection of $v$) depends on the infectivity…
Complex non-linear interactions between banks and assets we model by two time-dependent Erd\H{o}s Renyi network models where each node, representing bank, can invest either to a single asset (model I) or multiple assets (model II). We use…
We analyze cascades of defaults in an interbank loan market. The novel feature of this study is that the network structure and the size distribution of banks are derived from empirical data. We find that the ability of a defaulted…
We propose a novel approach and an empirical procedure to test direct contagion of growth rate in a trade credit network of firms. Our hypotheses are that the use of trade credit contributes to contagion (from many customers to a single…
A probabilistic expert system emulates the decision-making ability of a human expert through a directional graphical model. The first step in building such systems is to understand data generation mechanism. To this end, one may try to…