Related papers: Out-of-sample gravity predictions and trade policy…

The Gravity Model is the workhorse for empirical studies in International Economies for its empirical power and it is commonly used in explaining the trade flow between countries; it relies on a function that relates the trade with the…

Global trade is shaped by a complex mix of factors beyond supply and demand, including tangible variables like transport costs and tariffs, as well as less quantifiable influences such as political and economic relations. Traditionally,…

The presence of a high number of zero flow trades continues to provide a challenge in identifying gravity parameters to explain international trade using the gravity model. Linear regression with a logarithmic linear equation encounters an…

This paper investigates whether the gravity model (GM) can explain the statistical properties of the International Trade Network (ITN). We fit data on international-trade flows with a GM specification using alternative fitting techniques…

Importance sampling is a central idea underlying off-policy prediction in reinforcement learning. It provides a strategy for re-weighting samples from a distribution to obtain unbiased estimates under another distribution. However,…

The gravity model, inspired by Newton's law of universal gravitation, has long served as a primary tool for interpreting trade flows between countries, using a country's economic `mass' as a key determinant. Despite its wide application,…

We study the incidental parameter problem for the ``three-way'' Poisson {Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood} (``PPML'') estimator recently recommended for identifying the effects of trade policies and in other panel data gravity settings. Despite…

Machine learning for the parameterization of subgrid-scale processes in climate models has been widely researched and adopted in a few models. A key challenge in developing data-driven parameterization schemes is how to properly represent…

International trade policies have recently garnered attention for limiting cross-border exchange of essential goods (e.g. steel, aluminum, soybeans, and beef). Since trade critically affects employment and wages, predicting future patterns…

Gravity is one of the most prominent models used across various social areas, including economics, demography, mobility, politics, and other systems where spatial interactions are relevant. The model represents a flexible approach that…

Modeling of human mobility is critical to address questions in urban planning and transportation, as well as global challenges in sustainability, public health, and economic development. However, our understanding and ability to model…

We consider the problem of evaluating the performance of a decision policy using past observational data. The outcome of a policy is measured in terms of a loss (aka. disutility or negative reward) and the main problem is making valid…

Although initially originated as a totally empirical relationship to explain the volume of trade between two partners, gravity equation has been the focus of several theoretic models that try to explain it. Specialization models are of…

Data analysis in high energy physics has to deal with data samples produced from different sources. One of the most widely used ways to unfold their contributions is the sPlot technique. It uses the results of a maximum likelihood fit to…

In the economic literature, geographic distances are considered fundamental factors to be included in any theoretical model whose aim is the quantification of the trade between countries. Quantitatively, distances enter into the so-called…

In regression with random design, we study the problem of selecting a model that performs well for out-of-sample prediction. We do not assume that any of the candidate models under consideration are correct. Our analysis is based on…

Accurate prediction of trips between zones is critical for transportation planning, as it supports resource allocation and infrastructure development across various modes of transport. Although the gravity model has been widely used due to…

Machine learning models trained on real-world data may inadvertently make biased predictions that negatively impact marginalized communities. Reweighting, which assigns a weight to each data point used during model training, can mitigate…

Economic complexity methods, and in particular relatedness measures, lack a systematic evaluation and comparison framework. We argue that out-of-sample forecast exercises should play this role, and we compare various machine learning models…

It is argued that the pursuit of an ever increasing number of weights in large-scale machine learning applications, besides being energetically unsustainable, is also conducive to manipulative strategies whereby Science is easily served as…