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In this paper the problems of the retrospective analysis of models with time-varying structure are considered. These models include contamination models with randomly switching parameters and multivariate classification models with an…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-10-31 Boris Brodsky , Boris Darkhovsky

Model-assisted estimation combines sample survey data with auxiliary information to increase precision when estimating finite population quantities. Accurately estimating the variance of model-assisted estimators is challenging: the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-18 Ameer Dharamshi , Peter Gao , Jon Wakefield

We study counterfactual regression, which aims to map input features to outcomes under hypothetical scenarios that differ from those observed in the data. This is particularly useful for decision-making when adapting to sudden shifts in…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-08 Kwangho Kim

We introduce a new approach to a linear-circular regression problem that relates multiple linear predictors to a circular response. We follow a modeling approach of a wrapped normal distribution that describes angular variables and angular…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-09-17 Ali Esmaieeli Sikaroudi , Chiwoo Park

Let $\{(X_i,Y_i)\}_{i\in \{1,..., n\}}$ be an i.i.d. sample from the random design regression model $Y=f(X)+\epsilon$ with $(X,Y)\in [0,1]\times [-M,M]$. In dealing with such a model, adaptation is naturally to be intended in terms of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-01-23 Pierpaolo Brutti

We discuss Bayesian model uncertainty analysis and forecasting in sequential dynamic modeling of multivariate time series. The perspective is that of a decision-maker with a specific forecasting objective that guides thinking about relevant…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-07 Isaac Lavine , Michael Lindon , Mike West

This paper investigates the nonparametric estimation of a circular regression function in an errors-in-variables framework. Two settings are studied, depending on whether the covariates are circular or linear. Adaptive estimators are…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-08-27 Tien Dat Nguyen , Thanh Mai Pham Ngoc

Quantile regression is a fundamental problem in statistical learning motivated by a need to quantify uncertainty in predictions, or to model a diverse population without being overly reductive. For instance, epidemiological forecasts, cost…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-04-18 Rasool Fakoor , Taesup Kim , Jonas Mueller , Alexander J. Smola , Ryan J. Tibshirani

Latent variable models have been playing a central role in psychometrics and related fields. In many modern applications, the inference based on latent variable models involves one or several of the following features: (1) the presence of…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-08 Siliang Zhang , Yunxiao Chen

Causal inference is central to statistics and scientific discovery, enabling researchers to identify cause-and-effect relationships beyond associations. While traditionally studied within Euclidean spaces, contemporary applications…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-01 Satarupa Bhattacharjee , Bing Li , Xiao Wu , Lingzhou Xue

Variational autoencoders (VAE) represent a popular, flexible form of deep generative model that can be stochastically fit to samples from a given random process using an information-theoretic variational bound on the true underlying…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-08 Bin Dai , Yu Wang , John Aston , Gang Hua , David Wipf

The nested error regression model is a useful tool for analyzing clustered (grouped) data, and is especially used in small area estimation. The classical nested error regression model assumes normality of random effects and error terms, and…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-05-16 Shonosuke Sugasawa , Tatsuya Kubokawa

We extend variational autoencoders (VAEs) to collaborative filtering for implicit feedback. This non-linear probabilistic model enables us to go beyond the limited modeling capacity of linear factor models which still largely dominate…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-02-19 Dawen Liang , Rahul G. Krishnan , Matthew D. Hoffman , Tony Jebara

Quantile regression (QR) is a statistical tool for distribution-free estimation of conditional quantiles of a target variable given explanatory features. QR is limited by the assumption that the target distribution is univariate and defined…

We develop stochastic variational inference, a scalable algorithm for approximating posterior distributions. We develop this technique for a large class of probabilistic models and we demonstrate it with two probabilistic topic models,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2013-04-24 Matt Hoffman , David M. Blei , Chong Wang , John Paisley

Item Response Theory (IRT) is a ubiquitous model for understanding humans based on their responses to questions, used in fields as diverse as education, medicine and psychology. Large modern datasets offer opportunities to capture more…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-17 Mike Wu , Richard L. Davis , Benjamin W. Domingue , Chris Piech , Noah Goodman

We extend conformal prediction methodology beyond the case of exchangeable data. In particular, we show that a weighted version of conformal prediction can be used to compute distribution-free prediction intervals for problems in which the…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-08 Ryan J. Tibshirani , Rina Foygel Barber , Emmanuel J. Candes , Aaditya Ramdas

Machine learning models provide statistically impressive results which might be individually unreliable. To provide reliability, we propose an Epistemic Classifier (EC) that can provide justification of its belief using support from the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-20 Chitresh Bhushan , Zhaoyuan Yang , Nurali Virani , Naresh Iyer

Estimation of covariance matrices is a fundamental problem in multivariate statistics. Recently, growing efforts have focused on incorporating covariate effects into these matrices, facilitating subject-specific estimation. Despite these…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-10 Rakheon Kim , Emma Jingfei Zhang

This paper considers an estimation of semiparametric functional (varying)-coefficient quantile regression with spatial data. A general robust framework is developed that treats quantile regression for spatial data in a natural…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-02-06 Zudi Lu , Qingguo Tang , Longsheng Cheng