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This paper axiomatizes, in a two-stage setup, a new theory for decision under risk and ambiguity. The axiomatized preference relation $\succeq$ on the space $\tilde{V}$ of random variables induces an ambiguity index $c$ on the space…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-03-24 Roger J. A. Laeven , Mitja Stadje

The Choquet integral is a powerful aggregation operator which lists many well-known models as its special cases. We look at these special cases and provide their axiomatic analysis. In cases where an axiomatization has been previously given…

Economics · Quantitative Finance 2016-12-01 Mikhail Timonin

We distinguish two frameworks for decisions under ambiguity: evaluate-then-aggregate (ETA) and aggregate-then-evaluate (ATE). Given a statistic that represents the decision maker's pure-risk preferences (such as expected utility) and an…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2025-12-04 Zachary Van Oosten , Ruodu Wang

We introduce a model-free preference under ambiguity, as a primitive trait of behavior, which we apply once as well as repeatedly. Its single and double application yield simple, easily interpretable definitions of ambiguity aversion and…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2025-01-24 Mücahit Aygün , Roger J. A. Laeven , Mitja Stadje

We prove a representation theorem for the Choquet integral model. The preference relation is defined on a two-dimensional heterogeneous product set $X = X_1 \times X_2$ where elements of $X_1$ and $X_2$ are not necessarily comparable with…

Economics · Quantitative Finance 2016-03-29 Mikhail Timonin

We consider finite games in strategic form with Choquet expected utility. Using the notion of (unambiguously) believed, we define Choquet rationalizability and characterize it by Choquet rationality and common beliefs in Choquet rationality…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2019-07-23 Adam Dominiak , Burkhard Schipper

Probabilistic risk aversion, defined through quasi-convexity in probabilistic mixtures, is a common useful property in decision analysis. We study a general class of non-monotone mappings, called the generalized rank-dependent functions,…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2024-09-30 Ruodu Wang , Qinyu Wu

Choquet capacities and integrals are central concepts in decision making under ambiguity or model uncertainty, pioneered by Schmeidler. Motivated by risk optimization problems for quantiles under ambiguity, we study the subclass of Choquet…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2024-12-30 Peng Liu , Tiantian Mao , Ruodu Wang

This paper studies distributionally robust optimization for a rich class of risk measures with ambiguity sets defined by $\phi$-divergences. The risk measures are allowed to be non-linear in probabilities, are represented by Choquet…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-04-15 Guanyu Jin , Roger J. A. Laeven , Dick den Hertog

We obtain an elementary characterization of expected utility based on a representation of choice in terms of psychological gambles, which requires no assumption other than coherence between ex-ante and ex-post preferences. Weaker version of…

General Economics · Economics 2024-11-05 Gianluca Cassese

Random utility theory models an agent's preferences on alternatives by drawing a real-valued score on each alternative (typically independently) from a parameterized distribution, and then ranking the alternatives according to scores. A…

Multiagent Systems · Computer Science 2012-11-13 Hossein Azari Soufiani , David C. Parkes , Lirong Xia

We provide and axiomatize a representation for preferences over lotteries that generalizes the expected utility model. Since the representation uses different utility functions to evaluate different lotteries, the preferences can be…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2026-03-17 Edward Honda , Keh-Kuan Sun

We provide foundations for decisions in face of unlikely events by extending the standard framework of Savage to include preferences indexed by a family of events. We derive a subjective lexicographic expected utility representation which…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-05-26 Hugo Cruz-Sanchez

Since Leonard Savage's epoch-making "Foundations of Statistics", Subjective Expected Utility Theory has been the presumptive model for decision-making. Savage provided an act-based axiomatization of standard expected utility theory. In this…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2018-02-12 Grant Molnar

This paper formulates a model of utility for a continuous time framework that captures the decision-maker's concern with ambiguity about both volatility and drift. Corresponding extensions of some basic results in asset pricing theory are…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2013-01-22 Larry G. Epstein , Shaolin Ji

We study intertemporal decision making under uncertainty. We fully characterize discounted expected utility in a framework \`a la Savage. Despite the popularity of this model, no characterization is available in this setting. The concept of…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2020-03-13 Lorenzo Bastianello , José Heleno Faro

We study consumption dependence in the context of random utility and repeated choice. We show that, in the presence of consumption dependence, the random utility model is a misspecified model of repeated rational choice. This…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2025-10-01 Christopher Turansick

A model for decision making that generalizes Expected Utility Maximization is presented. This model, Expected Qualitative Utility Maximization, encompasses the Maximin criterion. It relaxes both the Independence and the Continuity…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2007-05-23 Daniel Lehmann

In this paper we extend Savage's theory of decision-making under uncertainty from a classical environment into a non-classical one. We formulate the corresponding axioms and provide representation theorems for qualitative measures and…

Physics and Society · Physics 2007-05-23 V. I. Danilov , A. Lambert-Mogiliansky

A family of models of individual discrete choice are constructed by means of statistical averaging of choices made by a subject in a reinforcement learning process, where the subject has short, k-term memory span. The choice probabilities…

Econometrics · Economics 2019-08-20 Misha Perepelitsa
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