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This paper studies sequence modeling for prediction tasks with long range dependencies. We propose a new formulation for state space models (SSMs) based on learning linear dynamical systems with the spectral filtering algorithm (Hazan et…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-12 Naman Agarwal , Daniel Suo , Xinyi Chen , Elad Hazan

In order to integrate uncertainty estimates into deep time-series modelling, Kalman Filters (KFs) (Kalman et al., 1960) have been integrated with deep learning models, however, such approaches typically rely on approximate inference…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-05-20 Philipp Becker , Harit Pandya , Gregor Gebhardt , Cheng Zhao , James Taylor , Gerhard Neumann

The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is an efficient algorithm for many data assimilation problems. In certain circumstances, however, divergence of the EnKF might be spotted. In previous studies, the authors proposed an…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2014-08-19 Xiaodong Luo , Ibrahim Hoteit

In this technical note, a recursive set-membership filtering algorithm for discrete-time nonlinear dynamical systems subject to unknown but bounded process and measurement noises is proposed. The nonlinear dynamics is represented in a…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-09-29 Diganta Bhattacharjee , Kamesh Subbarao

This paper expands traditional stochastic volatility models by allowing for time-varying skewness without imposing it. While dynamic asymmetry may capture the likely direction of future asset returns, it comes at the risk of leading to…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-12-04 Igor Ferreira Batista Martins , Hedibert Freitas Lopes

The characteristics of the model dynamics are critical in the performance of (ensemble) Kalman filters. In particular, as emphasized in the seminal work of Anna Trevisan and co-authors, the error covariance matrix is asymptotically…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2017-04-03 Marc Bocquet , Karthik S. Gurumoorthy , Amit Apte , Alberto Carrassi , Colin Grudzien , Christopher K. R. T. Jones

In the theory of quantum dynamical filtering, one of the biggest issues is that the underlying system dynamics represented by a quantum stochastic differential equation must be known exactly in order that the corresponding filter provides…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2011-11-09 Naoki Yamamoto

The uncertainty quantification of prediction models (e.g., neural networks) is crucial for their adoption in many robotics applications. This is arguably as important as making accurate predictions, especially for safety-critical…

Robotics · Computer Science 2024-04-09 Junan Chen , Josephine Monica , Wei-Lun Chao , Mark Campbell

Forecast stability, that is, the consistency of predictions over time, is essential in business settings where sudden shifts in forecasts can disrupt planning and erode trust in predictive systems. Despite its importance, stability is often…

Applications · Statistics 2026-02-11 Marco Zanotti

Data assimilation is a method of uncertainty quantification to estimate the hidden true state by updating the prediction owing to model dynamics with observation data. As a prediction model, we consider a class of nonlinear dynamical…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-05 Kota Takeda , Takashi Sakajo

One-shot pose estimation for tasks such as body joint localization, camera pose estimation, and object tracking are generally noisy, and temporal filters have been extensively used for regularization. One of the most widely-used methods is…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2017-08-08 Huseyin Coskun , Felix Achilles , Robert DiPietro , Nassir Navab , Federico Tombari

In this work, we address the problem of sensor selection for state estimation via Kalman filtering. We consider a linear time-invariant (LTI) dynamical system subject to process and measurement noise, where the sensors we use to perform…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-03-12 Christopher I. Calle , Shaunak D. Bopardikar

The Ensemble Kalman filter and Ensemble square root filters are data assimilation methods used to combine high dimensional nonlinear models with observed data. These methods have proved to be indispensable tools in science and engineering…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-07-31 Xin T Tong , Andrew J Majda , David Kelly

Large-scale dynamic inverse problems are often ill-posed due to model complexity and the high dimensionality of the unknown parameters. Regularization is commonly employed to mitigate ill-posedness by incorporating prior information and…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-01-21 Aryeh Keating , Mirjeta Pasha

Ensuring safety for autonomous systems under uncertainty remains challenging, particularly when safety of the true state is required despite the true state not being fully known. Control barrier functions (CBFs) have become widely adopted…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-01-26 Ruoyu Lin , Magnus Egerstedt

This paper explores the fundamental limits of a simple system, inspired by the intermittent Kalman filtering model, where the actuation direction is drawn uniformly from the unit hypersphere. The model allows us to focus on a fundamental…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-05-18 Rahul Arya , Chih-Yuan Chiu , Gireeja Ranade

We develop a generalization of unobserved components models that allows for a wide range of long-run dynamics by modelling the permanent component as a fractionally integrated process. The model does not require stationarity and can be cast…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-05-22 Tobias Hartl , Rolf Tschernig , Enzo Weber

We study controlled filter stability and its effects on the robustness properties of optimal control policies designed for systems with incorrect priors applied to a true system. Filter stability refers to the correction of an incorrectly…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-10-11 Curtis McDonald , Serdar Yüksel

The literature dealing with data-driven analysis and control problems has significantly grown in the recent years. Most of the recent literature deals with linear time-invariant systems in which the uncertainty (if any) is assumed to be…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-05-12 Daniele Alpago , Florian Dorfler , John Lygeros

We analyze the convergence aspects of the invariant extended Kalman filter (IEKF), when the latter is used as a deterministic non-linear observer on Lie groups, for continuous-time systems with discrete observations. One of the main…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2015-10-20 Axel Barrau , Silvère Bonnabel