Related papers: Conformal prediction without knowledge of labeled …
Standard conformal prediction methods provide a marginal coverage guarantee, which means that for a random test point, the conformal prediction set contains the true label with a user-specified probability. In many classification problems,…
This paper introduces a conformal inference method to evaluate uncertainty in classification by generating prediction sets with valid coverage conditional on adaptively chosen features. These features are carefully selected to reflect…
In a split conformal framework with $K$ classes, a calibration sample of $n$ labeled examples is observed for inference on the label of a new unlabeled example. We explore the setting where a `batch' of $m$ independent such unlabeled…
Conformal Prediction (CP) is a popular method for uncertainty quantification with machine learning models. While conformal prediction provides probabilistic guarantees regarding the coverage of the true label, these guarantees are agnostic…
While the predictions produced by conformal prediction are set-valued, the data used for training and calibration is supposed to be precise. In the setting of superset learning or learning from partial labels, a variant of weakly supervised…
We introduce a framework for robust uncertainty quantification in situations where labeled training data are corrupted, through noisy or missing labels. We build on conformal prediction, a statistical tool for generating prediction sets…
This paper proposes probabilistic conformal prediction (PCP), a predictive inference algorithm that estimates a target variable by a discontinuous predictive set. Given inputs, PCP construct the predictive set based on random samples from…
Conformal prediction (CP) offers distribution-free marginal coverage guarantees under an exchangeability assumption, but these guarantees can fail if the data distribution shifts. We analyze the use of pseudo-calibration as a tool to…
Conformal prediction uses past experience to determine precise levels of confidence in new predictions. Given an error probability $\epsilon$, together with a method that makes a prediction $\hat{y}$ of a label $y$, it produces a set of…
Conformal prediction is an assumption-lean approach to generating distribution-free prediction intervals or sets, for nearly arbitrary predictive models, with guaranteed finite-sample coverage. Conformal methods are an active research topic…
This paper presents a comprehensive empirical analysis of conformal prediction methods on a challenging aerial image dataset featuring diverse events in unconstrained environments. Conformal prediction is a powerful post-hoc technique that…
Conformal prediction is a statistical framework that generates prediction sets containing ground-truth labels with a desired coverage guarantee. The predicted probabilities produced by machine learning models are generally miscalibrated,…
Conformal Prediction (CP) allows to perform rigorous uncertainty quantification by constructing a prediction set $C(X)$ satisfying $\mathbb{P}(Y \in C(X))\geq 1-\alpha$ for a user-chosen $\alpha \in [0,1]$ by relying on calibration data…
Convolutional image classifiers can achieve high predictive accuracy, but quantifying their uncertainty remains an unresolved challenge, hindering their deployment in consequential settings. Existing uncertainty quantification techniques,…
Conformal prediction offers a distribution-free framework for constructing prediction sets with coverage guarantees. In practice, multiple valid conformal prediction sets may be available, arising from different models or methodologies.…
Conformal Prediction methods have finite-sample distribution-free marginal coverage guarantees. However, they generally do not offer conditional coverage guarantees, which can be important for high-stakes decisions. In this paper, we…
Conformal prediction (CP) transforms any model's output into prediction sets guaranteed to include (cover) the true label. CP requires exchangeability, a relaxation of the i.i.d. assumption, to obtain a valid distribution-free coverage…
Conformal prediction is a flexible framework for calibrating machine learning predictions, providing distribution-free statistical guarantees. In outlier detection, this calibration relies on a reference set of labeled inlier data to…
Conformal prediction (CP) is an emerging uncertainty quantification framework that allows us to construct a prediction set to cover the true label with a pre-specified marginal or conditional probability. Although the valid coverage…
Medical imaging classifiers can achieve high predictive accuracy, but quantifying their uncertainty remains an unresolved challenge, which prevents their deployment in medical clinics. We present an algorithm that can modify any classifier…