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We propose an adaptive Metropolis-Hastings algorithm in which sampled data are used to update the proposal distribution. We use the samples found by the algorithm at a particular step to form the information-theoretically optimal mean-field…

Other Condensed Matter · Physics 2007-05-23 David H. Wolpert , Chiu Fan Lee

Markov chain Monte Carlo methods have become popular in statistics as versatile techniques to sample from complicated probability distributions. In this work, we propose a method to parameterize and train transition kernels of Markov chains…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-05 Evgenii Egorov , Ricardo Valperga , Efstratios Gavves

Recent advances in machine learning have led to the development of new methods for enhancing Monte Carlo methods such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and importance sampling (IS). One such method is normalizing flows, which use a neural…

Computation · Statistics 2024-01-12 Charly Andral

This paper develops a novel sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) approach for joint state and parameter estimation that can deal efficiently with abruptly changing parameters which is a common case when tracking maneuvering targets. The approach…

Computation · Statistics 2015-10-12 Christopher Nemeth , Paul Fearnhead , Lyudmila Mihaylova

Investigating critical phenomena or phase transitions is of high interest in physics and chemistry, for which Monte Carlo (MC) simulations, a crucial tool for numerically analyzing macroscopic properties of given systems, are often hindered…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-09 Ankur Singha , Elia Cellini , Kim A. Nicoli , Karl Jansen , Stefan Kühn , Shinichi Nakajima

Stochastic gradient Markov chain Monte Carlo (SG-MCMC) has become increasingly popular for simulating posterior samples in large-scale Bayesian modeling. However, existing SG-MCMC schemes are not tailored to any specific probabilistic…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-06-13 Wenbo Gong , Yingzhen Li , José Miguel Hernández-Lobato

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods provide powerful framework for sampling unknown probability measures across a wide range of scientific applications. In some settings, the target distribution is supported on a lower-dimensional…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-04-27 Xuyuan Wang , Donglin Han

In big data context, traditional MCMC methods, such as Metropolis-Hastings algorithms and hybrid Monte Carlo, scale poorly because of their need to evaluate the likelihood over the whole data set at each iteration. In order to resurrect…

Computation · Statistics 2017-06-20 Changye Wu , Christian P. Robert

Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) provide a promising framework for modeling predictive uncertainty and enhancing out-of-distribution robustness (OOD) by estimating the posterior distribution of network parameters. Stochastic Gradient Markov…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-04 Hyunsu Kim , Giung Nam , Chulhee Yun , Hongseok Yang , Juho Lee

Ensemble methods have become ubiquitous for the solution of Bayesian inference problems. State-of-the-art Langevin samplers such as the Ensemble Kalman Sampler (EKS), Affine Invariant Langevin Dynamics (ALDI) or its extension using weighted…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-12-23 Martin Eigel , Robert Gruhlke , David Sommer

We have used a mean-field Monte Carlo method to study the zero-temperature synchronous dynamics of a one-pattern model of associative memory with random asymmetric couplings. In the case of symmetric couplings, we find evidence for a…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2007-05-23 Manoranjan P. Singh , Chandan Dasgupta

Many methods have been proposed to quantify the predictive uncertainty associated with the outputs of deep neural networks. Among them, ensemble methods often lead to state-of-the-art results, though they require modifications to the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-11 Zhiyun Lu , Eugene Ie , Fei Sha

Distributed model fitting refers to the process of fitting a mathematical or statistical model to the data using distributed computing resources, such that computing tasks are divided among multiple interconnected computers or nodes, often…

Computation · Statistics 2024-06-04 Xiaofei Wu , Rongmei Liang , Fabio Roli , Marcello Pelillo , Jing Yuan

We propose Adaptive Incremental Mixture Markov chain Monte Carlo (AIMM), a novel approach to sample from challenging probability distributions defined on a general state-space. While adaptive MCMC methods usually update a parametric…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-06-01 Florian Maire , Nial Friel , Antonietta Mira , Adrian Raftery

The importance-sampling Monte Carlo algorithm appears to be the universally optimal solution to the problem of sampling the state space of statistical mechanical systems according to the relative importance of configurations for the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2010-06-22 Martin Weigel

Practitioners of Bayesian statistics have long depended on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to obtain samples from intractable posterior distributions. Unfortunately, MCMC algorithms are typically serial, and do not scale to the large…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-06-11 Maxim Rabinovich , Elaine Angelino , Michael I. Jordan

The Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm is the prototype for a class of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods that propose transitions between states and then accept or reject the proposal. These methods generate a correlated sequence of random…

Computational Physics · Physics 2011-05-12 Albert H. Mao , Rohit V. Pappu

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms were originally designed for estimating intractable conditional expectations within state-space models, but are now routinely used to generate approximate samples in the context of general-purpose…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-05-11 Jonathan H. Huggins , Daniel M. Roy

Monte Carlo approaches have recently been proposed to quantify connectivity in neuronal networks. The key problem is to sample from the conditional distribution of a single neuronal spike train, given the activity of the other neurons in…

Applications · Statistics 2011-12-01 Yuriy Mishchenko , Liam Paninski

We propose using an adaptive sampling method to detect changes for a system with multiple lines. The adaptive sampling utilizes the information in responses to learn on which line is more likely to have a change thus allocating more units…

Applications · Statistics 2025-12-18 Yanqing Yi , Su-Fen Yang