Related papers: Stop using root-mean-square error as a precipitati…

Deep learning has been successfully applied to precipitation nowcasting. In this work, we propose a pre-training scheme and a new loss function for improving deep-learning-based nowcasting. First, we adapt U-Net, a widely-used deep-learning…

Deep generative models are commonly used for generating images and text. Interpretability of these models is one important pursuit, other than the generation quality. Variational auto-encoder (VAE) with Gaussian distribution as prior has…

Downscaling is necessary to generate high-resolution observation data to validate the climate model forecast or monitor rainfall at the micro-regional level operationally. Dynamical and statistical downscaling models are often used to get…

Quantifying changes in the probability and magnitude of extreme flooding events is key to mitigating their impacts. While hydrodynamic data are inherently spatially dependent, traditional spatial models such as Gaussian processes are poorly…

In machine learning forecasting, standard error metrics such as mean absolute error (MAE) and mean squared error (MSE) quantify discrepancies between predictions and target values. However, these metrics do not directly evaluate the…

Precipitation nowcasting, predicting future radar echo sequences from current observations, is a critical yet challenging task due to the inherently chaotic and tightly coupled spatio-temporal dynamics of the atmosphere. While recent…

Sensors provide a vital source of data that link digital systems with the physical world. However, as sensors age, the relationship between what they measure and what they output changes. This is known as sensor drift and poses a…

We adopt Gaussian Processes (GPs) as latent functions for probabilistic forecasting of intermittent time series. The model is trained in a Bayesian framework that accounts for the uncertainty about the latent function. We couple the latent…

The Tweedie GLM is a widely used method for predicting insurance premiums. However, the structure of the logarithmic mean is restricted to a linear form in the Tweedie GLM, which can be too rigid for many applications. As a better…

Rain is one of the most common weather which can completely degrade the image quality and interfere with the performance of many computer vision tasks, especially under heavy rain conditions. We observe that: (i) rain is a mixture of rain…

Despite the simplicity and intuitive interpretation of Minimum Mean Squared Error (MMSE) estimators, their effectiveness in certain scenarios is questionable. Indeed, minimizing squared errors on average does not provide any form of…

The pretrained diffusion model as a strong prior has been leveraged to address inverse problems in a zero-shot manner without task-specific retraining. Different from the unconditional generation, the measurement-guided generation requires…

Machine learning models trained on Earth observation data, such as satellite imagery, have demonstrated significant promise in predicting household-level wealth indices, enabling the creation of high-resolution wealth maps that can be…

Maximum entropy reinforcement learning (MaxEnt-RL) has become the standard approach to RL due to its beneficial exploration properties. Traditionally, policies are parameterized using Gaussian distributions, which significantly limits their…

Accurate rainfall forecasting is crucial for effective disaster preparedness and mitigation in the North-East region of India, which is prone to extreme weather events such as floods and landslides. In this study, we investigated the use of…

Deep learning has emerged as a promising tool for precipitation downscaling. However, current models rely on likelihood-based loss functions to properly model the precipitation distribution, leading to spatially inconsistent projections…

Deep learning models for precipitation forecasting often function as black boxes, limiting their adoption in real-world weather prediction. To enhance transparency while maintaining accuracy, we developed an interpretable deep learning…

Graphical models are a framework for representing and exploiting prior conditional independence structures within distributions using graphs. In the Gaussian case, these models are directly related to the sparsity of the inverse covariance…

The James-Stein estimator's dominance over maximum likelihood in terms of mean square error (MSE) has been one of the most celebrated results in modern statistics, suggesting that biased estimators can systematically outperform unbiased…

Precipitation data collected at sub-hourly resolution represents specific challenges for missing data recovery by being largely stochastic in nature and highly unbalanced in the duration of rain vs non-rain. Here we present a two-step…