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Gaussian processes (GPs) are the most common formalism for defining probability distributions over spaces of functions. While applications of GPs are myriad, a comprehensive understanding of GP sample paths, i.e. the function spaces over…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-06 Nathaël Da Costa , Marvin Pförtner , Lancelot Da Costa , Philipp Hennig

Fitting a theoretical model to experimental data in a Bayesian manner using Markov chain Monte Carlo typically requires one to evaluate the model thousands (or millions) of times. When the model is a slow-to-compute physics simulation,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-08-25 Steven Stetzler , Michael Grosskopf , Earl Lawrence

Bayesian model updating based on Gaussian Process (GP) models has received attention in recent years, which incorporates kernel-based GPs to provide enhanced fidelity response predictions. Although most kernel functions provide high fitting…

Detecting planetary signatures in radial velocity time-series of young stars is challenging due to their inherently strong stellar activity. However, it is possible to learn information about the properties of the stellar signal by using…

The radial velocity method is a very productive technique used to detect and confirm extrasolar planets. The most recent spectrographs, such as ESPRESSO or EXPRES, have the potential to detect Earth-like planets around Sun-like stars.…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2022-03-30 J. -B. Delisle , N. Unger , N. C. Hara , D. Ségransan

Detecting small planets via the radial velocity method remains challenged by signals induced by stellar variability, versus the effects of the planet(s). Here, we explore using Gaussian Process (GP) regression with Transiting Exoplanet…

The detection of terrestrial planets by radial velocity and photometry is hindered by the presence of stellar signals. Those are often modeled as stationary Gaussian processes, whose kernels are based on qualitative considerations, which do…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2025-04-23 Nathan C. Hara , Jean-Baptiste Delisle

Discovering exoplanets orbiting young Suns can provide insight into the formation and early evolution of our own solar system, but the extreme magnetic activity of young stars obfuscates exoplanet detection. Here we monitor the long-term…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2024-01-24 E. L. Brown , S. C. Marsden , S. V. Jeffers , A. Heitzmann , J. R. Barnes , C. P. Folsom

We apply Gaussian processes (GP) in order to impose constraints on teleparallel gravity and its $f(T)$ extensions. We use available $H(z)$ observations from (i) cosmic chronometers data (CC); (ii) Supernova Type Ia (SN) data from the…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2021-02-03 Rebecca Briffa , Salvatore Capozziello , Jackson Levi Said , Jurgen Mifsud , Emmanuel N. Saridakis

Accounting for stellar activity is a crucial component of the search for ever-smaller planets orbiting stars of all spectral types. We use Doppler imaging methods to demonstrate that starspot induced radial velocity variability can be…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2017-01-18 J. R. Barnes , S. V. Jeffers , G. Anglada-Escude , C. A. Haswell , H. R. A. Jones , M. Tuomi , F. Feng , J. S. Jenkins , P. Petit

Recent advances in Deep Gaussian Processes (DGPs) show the potential to have more expressive representation than that of traditional Gaussian Processes (GPs). However, there exists a pathology of deep Gaussian processes that their learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-22 Anh Tong , Jaesik Choi

Many novel methods have been proposed to mitigate stellar activity for exoplanet detection as the presence of stellar activity in radial velocity (RV) measurements is the current major limitation. Unlike traditional methods that model…

In decision-making systems, it is important to have classifiers that have calibrated uncertainties, with an optimisation objective that can be used for automated model selection and training. Gaussian processes (GPs) provide uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-03-05 Vincent Dutordoir , Mark van der Wilk , Artem Artemev , James Hensman

Gaussian processes (GPs) are powerful and widely used probabilistic regression models, but their effectiveness in practice is often limited by the choice of kernel function. This kernel function is typically handcrafted from a small set of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-13 Jihao Andreas Lin , Sebastian Ament , Louis C. Tiao , David Eriksson , Maximilian Balandat , Eytan Bakshy

A key feature of active galactic nuclei (AGN) is their variability across all wavelengths. Typically, AGN vary by a few tenths of a magnitude or more over periods lasting from hours to years. By contrast, extreme variability of AGN -- large…

High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena · Physics 2024-03-12 Summer A. J. McLaughlin , James R. Mullaney , Stuart P. Littlefair

As the first successful technique used to detect exoplanets orbiting distant stars, the Radial Velocity Method aims to detect a periodic Doppler shift in a star's spectrum. We introduce a new, mathematically rigorous, approach to detect…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2020-05-29 Parker Holzer , Jessi Cisewski-Kehe , Debra Fischer , Lily Zhao

Deep Gaussian processes (DGPs) provide a Bayesian non-parametric alternative to standard parametric deep learning models. A DGP is formed by stacking multiple GPs resulting in a well-regularized composition of functions. The Bayesian…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-06-06 Vinayak Kumar , Vaibhav Singh , P. K. Srijith , Andreas Damianou

Owing to recent advances in radial-velocity instrumentation and observation techniques, the detection of Earth-mass planets around Sun-like stars may soon be primarily limited by intrinsic stellar variability. Several processes contribute…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2021-12-22 Michael L. Palumbo , Eric B. Ford , Jason T. Wright , Suvrath Mahadevan , Alexander W. Wise , Johannes Löhner-Böttcher

A Gaussian process (GP)-based methodology is proposed to emulate complex dynamical computer models (or simulators). The method relies on emulating the numerical flow map of the system over an initial (short) time step, where the flow map is…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-26 Hossein Mohammadi , Peter Challenor , Marc Goodfellow

We employ Gaussian process (GP) regression to adjust for systematic errors in D3-type dispersion corrections introducing the associated, statistically improved model D3-GP. We generated a data set containing interaction energies for 1,248…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2019-12-03 Jonny Proppe , Stefan Gugler , Markus Reiher