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Variational Bayes (VB) has been used to facilitate the calculation of the posterior distribution in the context of Bayesian inference of the parameters of nonlinear models from data. Previously an analytical formulation of VB has been…
Naveau et al. (2016) have recently developed a class of methods, based on extreme-value theory (EVT), for capturing low, moderate, and heavy rainfall simultaneously, without the need to choose a threshold typical to EVT methods. We analyse…
We establish a theory for multivariate extreme value analysis of dynamical systems. Namely, we provide conditions adapted to the dynamical setting which enable the study of dependence between extreme values of the components of…
We investigate the distribution and multiple occurrences of extreme events stochastic processes constructed by sampling the solution of a Stochastic Differential Equation on $\mathbb{R}^n$. We do so by studying the action of an annealead…
Stochastic volatility (SV) models are nonlinear state-space models that enjoy increasing popularity for fitting and predicting heteroskedastic time series. However, due to the large number of latent quantities, their efficient estimation is…
Nonstationarity in spatial and spatio-temporal processes is ubiquitous in environmental datasets, but is not often addressed in practice, due to a scarcity of statistical software packages that implement nonstationary models. In this…
In this paper we introduce a Non-Stationary Fuzzy Time Series (NSFTS) method with time varying parameters adapted from the distribution of the data. In this approach, we employ Non-Stationary Fuzzy Sets, in which perturbation functions are…
To capture the extremal behaviour of complex environmental phenomena in practice, flexi\-ble techniques for modelling tail behaviour are required. In this paper, we introduce a variety of such methods, which were used by the Lancopula…
Event detection in time series data is crucial in various domains, including finance, healthcare, cybersecurity, and science. Accurately identifying events in time series data is vital for making informed decisions, detecting anomalies, and…
Extreme values modeling has attracting the attention of researchers in diverse areas such as the environment, engineering, or finance. Multivariate extreme value distributions are particularly suitable to model the tails of multidimensional…
Multivariate extreme-value analysis is concerned with the extremes in a multivariate random sample, that is, points of which at least some components have exceptionally large values. Mathematical theory suggests the use of max-stable models…
IntLevPy provides a comprehensive description of the IntLevPy Package, a Python library designed for simulating and analyzing intermittent and L\'evy processes. The package includes functionalities for process simulation, including full…
Nowadays the analysis of dynamics of and on networks represents a hot topic in the Social Network Analysis playground. To support students, teachers, developers and researchers in this work we introduce a novel framework, namely NDlib, an…
Inference in extreme value theory relies on a limited number of extreme observations, making estimation challenging. To address this limitation, we propose a non-parametric simulation scheme, the multivariate extreme events spectral…
Capturing the extremal behaviour of data often requires bespoke marginal and dependence models which are grounded in rigorous asymptotic theory, and hence provide reliable extrapolation into the upper tails of the data-generating…
Modelling of precipitation and its extremes is important for urban and agriculture planning purposes. We present a method for producing spatial predictions and measures of uncertainty for spatio-temporal data that is heavy-tailed and…
Attaining ultra-reliable communication (URC) in fifth-generation (5G) and beyond networks requires deriving statistics of channel in ultra-reliable region by modeling the extreme events. Extreme value theory (EVT) has been previously…
This paper presents an innovative approach to extreme precipitation nowcasting by employing Transformer-based generative models, namely NowcastingGPT with Extreme Value Loss (EVL) regularization. Leveraging a comprehensive dataset from the…
The risk of occurrence of atypical phenomena is a cross-cutting concern in several areas, such as engineering, climatology, finance, actuarial, among others. Extreme value theory is the natural tool to approach this theme. Many of these…
In this paper we present SurvLIMEpy, an open-source Python package that implements the SurvLIME algorithm. This method allows to compute local feature importance for machine learning algorithms designed for modelling Survival Analysis data.…