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This paper deals with the estimation of rare event probabilities using importance sampling (IS), where an optimal proposal distribution is computed with the cross-entropy (CE) method. Although, IS optimized with the CE method leads to an…

Computation · Statistics 2020-02-05 Patrick Héas

The cross-entropy method (CE) developed by R. Rubinstein is an elegant practical principle for simulating rare events. The method approximates the probability of the rare event by means of a family of probabilistic models. The method has…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Frederic Dambreville

The cross entropy (CE) method is a model based search method to solve optimization problems where the objective function has minimal structure. The Monte-Carlo version of the CE method employs the naive sample averaging technique which is…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2018-02-01 Ajin George Joseph , Shalabh Bhatnagar

The Cross Entropy method is a well-known adaptive importance sampling method for rare-event probability estimation, which requires estimating an optimal importance sampling density within a parametric class. In this article we estimate an…

Computation · Statistics 2013-10-15 Z. I. Botev , A. Ridder , L. Rojas-Nandayapa

The cross-entropy (CE) method is simple and versatile technique for optimization, based on Kullback-Leibler (or cross-entropy) minimization. The method can be applied to a wide range of optimization tasks, including continuous, discrete,…

Computation · Statistics 2015-03-09 Tim Benham , Qibin Duan , Dirk P. Kroese , Benoit Liquet

The cross-entropy (CE) method is a popular stochastic method for optimization due to its simplicity and effectiveness. Designed for rare-event simulations where the probability of a target event occurring is relatively small, the CE-method…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-09-22 Robert J. Moss

Loss functions play a crucial role in deep metric learning thus a variety of them have been proposed. Some supervise the learning process by pairwise or tripletwise similarity constraints while others take advantage of structured similarity…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-25 Xinshao Wang , Elyor Kodirov , Yang Hua , Neil Robertson

We employ the Bayesian improved cross entropy (BiCE) method for rare event estimation in static networks and choose the categorical mixture as the parametric family to capture the dependence among network components. At each iteration of…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-25 Jianpeng Chan , Iason Papaioannou , Daniel Straub

We propose a modification of the improved cross entropy (iCE) method to enhance its performance for network reliability assessment. The iCE method performs a transition from the nominal density to the optimal importance sampling (IS)…

Applications · Statistics 2022-11-18 Jianpeng Chan , Iason Papaioannou , Daniel Straub

The study considers the usage of a probabilistic optimization method called Cross-Entropy (CE). This is the version of the Monte Carlo method created by Reuven Rubinstein (1997). It was developed in the context of determining rare events.…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-04-15 Maria Katarzyna Stachowiak , Krzysztof Józef Szajowski

The estimation of rare event or failure probabilities in high dimensions is of interest in many areas of science and technology. We consider problems where the rare event is expressed in terms of a computationally costly numerical model.…

Computation · Statistics 2020-06-11 Felipe Uribe , Iason Papaioannou , Youssef M. Marzouk , Daniel Straub

The key issue in importance sampling is the choice of the alternative sampling distribution, which is often chosen from the exponential tilt family of the underlying distribution. However, when the problem exhibits certain kind of…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-05-15 Hui Wang , Xiang Zhou

To efficiently evaluate system reliability based on Monte Carlo simulation, importance sampling is used widely. The optimal importance sampling density was derived in 1950s for the deterministic simulation model, which maps an input to an…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-06-04 Quoc Dung Cao , Youngjun Choe

Statistical model checking avoids the exponential growth of states associated with probabilistic model checking by estimating properties from multiple executions of a system and by giving results within confidence bounds. Rare properties…

Performance · Computer Science 2012-01-26 Cyrille Jégourel , Axel Legay , Sean Sedwards

Evaluating the reliability of intelligent physical systems against rare safety-critical events poses a huge testing burden for real-world applications. Simulation provides a useful platform to evaluate the extremal risks of these systems…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-09 Mansur Arief , Zhiyuan Huang , Guru Koushik Senthil Kumar , Yuanlu Bai , Shengyi He , Wenhao Ding , Henry Lam , Ding Zhao

We study two adaptive importance sampling schemes for estimating the probability of a rare event in the high-dimensional regime $d \to \infty$ with $d$ the dimension. The first scheme is the prominent cross-entropy (CE) method, and the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-03-26 Jason Beh , Yonatan Shadmi , Florian Simatos

Gathering the most information by picking the least amount of data is a common task in experimental design or when exploring an unknown environment in reinforcement learning and robotics. A widely used measure for quantifying the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-09-17 Johannes Kulick , Robert Lieck , Marc Toussaint

This letter considers optimizing user association in a heterogeneous network via utility maximization, which is a combinatorial optimization problem due to integer constraints. Different from existing solutions based on convex optimization,…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2018-06-12 Xietian Huang , Wei Xu , Guo Xie , Shi Jin , Xiaohu You

Estimating the probability that a sum of random variables (RVs) exceeds a given threshold is a well-known challenging problem. Closed-form expression of the sum distribution is usually intractable and presents an open problem. A crude Monte…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2014-09-23 Nadhir Ben Rached , Fatma Benkhelifa , Abla Kammoun , Mohamed-Slim Alouini , Raul Tempone

Trajectory optimizers for model-based reinforcement learning, such as the Cross-Entropy Method (CEM), can yield compelling results even in high-dimensional control tasks and sparse-reward environments. However, their sampling inefficiency…

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