Related papers: Methodological Insights into Structural Causal Mod…

Do large language models (LLMs) exhibit systematic ideological bias when reasoning about economic causal effects? As LLMs are increasingly used in policy analysis and economic reporting, where directionally correct causal judgments are…

Distinguishing cause from effect using observations of a pair of random variables is a core problem in causal discovery. Most approaches proposed for this task, namely additive noise models (ANM), are only adequate for quantitative data. We…

We introduce a new approach to functional causal modeling from observational data, called Causal Generative Neural Networks (CGNN). CGNN leverages the power of neural networks to learn a generative model of the joint distribution of the…

Causality is essential for understanding complex systems, such as the economy, the brain, and the climate. Constructing causal graphs often relies on either data-driven or expert-driven approaches, both fraught with challenges. The former…

Discovering causal relationships in complex multivariate time series is a fundamental scientific challenge. Traditional methods often falter, either by relying on restrictive linear assumptions or on conditional independence tests that…

Economic issues, such as inflation, energy costs, taxes, and interest rates, are a constant presence in our daily lives and have been exacerbated by global events such as pandemics, environmental disasters, and wars. A sustained history of…

The presence of unobserved common causes and measurement error poses two major obstacles to causal structure learning, since ignoring either source of complexity can induce spurious causal relations among variables of interest. We study…

While spatio-temporal Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) excel at modeling recurring traffic patterns, their reliability plummets during non-recurring events like accidents. This failure occurs because GNNs are fundamentally correlational models,…

Ten years ago we presented a modified version of Okun law for the biggest developed economies and reported its excellent predictive power. In this study, we revisit the original models using the estimates of real GDP per capita and…

Causal inference uses observations to infer the causal structure of the data generating system. We study a class of functional models that we call Time Series Models with Independent Noise (TiMINo). These models require independent residual…

As a quantitative characterization of the complicated economy, Macroeconomic Variables (MEVs), including GDP, inflation, unemployment, income, spending, interest rate, etc., are playing a crucial role in banks' portfolio management and…

Causality defines the relationship between cause and effect. In multivariate time series field, this notion allows to characterize the links between several time series considering temporal lags. These phenomena are particularly important…

In the realm of stock prediction, machine learning models encounter considerable obstacles due to the inherent low signal-to-noise ratio and the nonstationary nature of financial markets. These challenges often result in spurious…

This paper presents a novel study on harnessing Large Language Models' (LLMs) outstanding knowledge and reasoning abilities for explainable financial time series forecasting. The application of machine learning models to financial time…

We propose a parsimonious class of arbitrage-free, yields-only dynamic term structure models (DTSMs) with unspanned latent risks. To enable sequential estimation and forecasting, we develop a Sequential Monte Carlo framework that combines…

Causal inference is a critical research topic across many domains, such as statistics, computer science, education, public policy and economics, for decades. Nowadays, estimating causal effect from observational data has become an appealing…

The combination of the network theoretic approach with recently available abundant economic data leads to the development of novel analytic and computational tools for modelling and forecasting key economic indicators. The main idea is to…

This article investigates the causality structure of financial time series. We concentrate on three main approaches to measuring causality: linear Granger causality, kernel generalisations of Granger causality (based on ridge regression and…

Methods for detecting structural changes, or change points, in time series data are widely used in many fields of science and engineering. This chapter sketches some basic methods for the analysis of structural changes in time series data.…

We propose a stochastic model predictive control (MPC) framework for linear systems subject to joint-in-time chance constraints under unknown disturbance distributions. Unlike existing approaches that rely on parametric or Gaussian…