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Epistemic uncertainty in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) is commonly addressed through a logic-tree framework that combines weighted alternative models to characterize the range of plausible hazard outcomes. Implicit in this…

Geophysics · Physics 2026-03-03 Davide Zaccagnino , Didier Sornette

Shifting ecosystem disturbance patterns due to climate change (e.g. storms, droughts, wildfires) or direct human interference (e.g. harvests, nutrient loading) highlight the importance of quantifying and strengthening the resilience of…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2018-03-22 Katherine Meyer , Alanna Hoyer-Leitzel , Sarah Iams , Ian Klasky , Victoria Lee , Stephen Ligtenberg , Erika Bussmann , Mary Lou Zeeman

Nonlinear dynamical systems exposed to changing forcing can exhibit catastrophic transitions between alternative and often markedly different states. The phenomenon of critical slowing down (CSD) can be used to anticipate such transitions…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-13 Yu Huang , Sebastian Bathiany , Peter Ashwin , Niklas Boers

Dynamic fragmentation simulations are essential for predicting material response at high strain rates, yet explicit dynamic simulations that combine an extrinsic cohesive-zone model (CZM) with penalty-based contact often exhibit severe…

Computational Physics · Physics 2025-11-19 Thibault Ghesquière-Diérickx , Jean-François Molinari , Guillaume Anciaux

Physics-based and statistic-based models for describing seismic occurrence are two sides of the same coin. In this article we compare the temporal organization of events obtained in a spring-block model for the seismic fault with the one…

Geophysics · Physics 2023-02-03 Giuseppe Petrillo , Jiancang Zhuang , Eugenio Lippiello

``Remote triggering" refers to the inducement of earthquakes by weak perturbations that emanate from far away sources, typically intense earthquakes that happen at much larger distances than their nearby aftershocks, sometimes even around…

Geophysics · Physics 2021-10-13 Harish Charan , Anna Pomyalov , Itamar Procaccia

Seeing the Earth crust as crisscrossed by faults filled with fluid at close to lithostatic pressures, we develop a model in which its elastic modulii are different in net tension versus compression. In constrast with standard nonlinear…

Geophysics · Physics 2007-05-23 G. Ouillon , D. Sornette

The unjamming transition of granular systems is investigated in a seismic fault model via three dimensional Molecular Dynamics simulations. A two--time force--force correlation function, and a susceptibility related to the system response…

Soft Condensed Matter · Physics 2015-03-13 M. Pica Ciamarra , E. Lippiello , C. Godano , L. de Arcangelis

In turbulent flows, energy production is associated with highly organized structures, known as coherent structures. Since these structures are three-dimensional, their detection remains challenging in the most common situation, when…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2023-09-12 Subharthi Chowdhuri , Tirtha Banerjee

Fluid pressure and flow in the crust is a key parameter controlling earthquake physics. Since earthquake slip is linked to spatio-temporal localisation of deformation, it is expected that the localised fluid pressure around the fault plane…

Geophysics · Physics 2020-04-01 Nicolas Brantut

We propose a framework employing stochastic differential equations to facilitate the long-term stability analysis of power grids with intermittent wind power generations. This framework takes into account the discrete dynamics which play a…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2017-03-10 Xiaozhe Wang , Tao Wang , Hsiao-Dong Chiang , Jianhui Wang , Hui Liu

Accurate prediction of structural failure modes under seismic excitations is essential for seismic risk and resilience assessment. Traditional simulation-based approaches often result in imbalanced datasets dominated by non-failure or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-12 Jungho Kim , Taeyong Kim

Rotating the clamped ends of a buckled elastica induces a snap-through instability. Predicting the limit point and determining the equilibria at the start and end of the snap are routine computations in the quasi-static setting. The…

Soft Condensed Matter · Physics 2025-09-29 Chiraprabha Bhattacharyya , Ramsharan Rangarajan

Power system operators need tools for rapid, real-time counterfactual assessments of grid security under fast-changing conditions. Traditional N-1 contingency analysis lacks dynamic evaluation, especially of frequency swings from common…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2025-10-22 Ayrton Almada , Laurent Pagnier , Igal Goldshtein , Saif R. Kazi , Michael , Chertkov

Seismicity and faulting within the Earth crust are characterized by many scaling laws that are usually interpreted as qualifying the existence of underlying physical mechanisms associated with some kind of criticality in the sense of phase…

Geophysics · Physics 2021-03-31 Shyam Nandan , Sumit Kumar Ram , Guy Ouillon , Didier Sornette

We investigate the propagation of fluid-driven fault slip on a slip-weakening frictional interface separating two identical half-spaces of a three-dimensional elastic solid. Our focus is on axisymmetric circular shear ruptures as they…

Soft Condensed Matter · Physics 2023-09-12 Alexis Sáez , Brice Lecampion

The way granular materials response to an applied shear stress is of the utmost relevance to both human activities and natural environment. One of the their most intriguing and less understood behavior, is the stick-instability, whose most…

Soft Condensed Matter · Physics 2018-11-07 Andrea Baldassarri , Mario A. Annunziata , Andrea Gnoli , Giorgio Pontuale , Alberto Petri

Important physical observations in rupture dynamics such as static fault friction, short-slip, self-healing, and supershear phenomenon in cracks are studied. A continuum model of rupture dynamics is developed using the field dislocation…

Materials Science · Physics 2023-12-18 Abhishek Arora , Amit Acharya

Simulating long-term, fully dynamic sequences of earthquakes and aseismic slip (SEAS) on geometrically complex fault networks remains computationally demanding due to the cost of resolving elastodynamic interactions. Although…

Geophysics · Physics 2026-03-03 Federico Ciardo , Pierre Romanet

We propose a new test of the critical earthquake model based on the hypothesis that precursory earthquakes are ``actors'' that create fluctuations in the stress field which exhibit an increasing correlation length as the critical large…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2007-05-23 G. Ouillon , D. Sornette