Related papers: Bayesian Field Theory of the Rate Estimation

Unsupervised estimation of latent variable models is a fundamental problem central to numerous applications of machine learning and statistics. This work presents a principled approach for estimating broad classes of such models, including…

We identify a fundamental pathology in the likelihood for time delay inference which challenges standard inference methods. By analysing the likelihood for time delay inference with Gaussian process light curve models, we show that it…

We analyze the posterior contraction rates of parameters in Bayesian models via the Langevin diffusion process, in particular by controlling moments of the stochastic process and taking limits. Analogous to the non-asymptotic analysis of…

We solve the generalized Langevin equation driven by a stochastic force with power-law autocorrelation function. A stationary Markov process has been applied as a model of the noise. However, the resulting velocity variance does not…

We use an effective Markovian description to study the long-time behaviour of a nonlinear second order Langevin equation with Gaussian noise. When dissipation is neglected, the energy of the system grows as with time a power-law with an…

We propose a scalable, approximate inference hypernetwork framework for a general model of history-dependent processes. The flexible data model is based on a neural ordinary differential equation (NODE) representing the evolution of…

The generalised Langevin equation with a retarded friction and a double-well potential is solved. The random force is modelled by a multiplicative noise with long jumps. Probability density distributions converge with time to a distribution…

Data-driven modeling of non-Markovian dynamics is a recent topic of research with applications in many fields such as climate research, molecular dynamics, biophysics, or wind power modeling. In the frequently used standard Langevin…

This paper offers a qualitative insight into the convergence of Bayesian parameter inference in a setup which mimics the modeling of the spread of a disease with associated disease measurements. Specifically, we are interested in the…

Motivated by an application to empirical Bayes learning in high-dimensional regression, we study a class of Langevin diffusions in a system with random disorder, where the drift coefficient is driven by a parameter that continuously adapts…

We develop a probabilistic characterisation of trajectorial expansion rates in non-autonomous stochastic dynamical systems that can be defined over a finite time interval and used for the subsequent uncertainty quantification in Lagrangian…

Motivated by certain problems of statistical physics we consider a stationary stochastic process in which deterministic evolution is interrupted at random times by upward jumps of a fixed size. If the evolution consists of linear decay, the…

We show how to obtain a Bayesian estimate of the rates or numbers of signal and background events from a set of events when the shapes of the signal and background distributions are known, can be estimated, or approximated; our method works…

Pervasive across diverse domains, stochastic systems exhibit fluctuations in processes ranging from molecular dynamics to climate phenomena. The Langevin equation has served as a common mathematical model for studying such systems, enabling…

The generation of non-separable, physically motivated covariance functions is a theme of ongoing research interest, given that only a few classes of such functions are available. We construct a non-separable space-time covariance function…

We study a generalised model of population growth in which the state variable is population growth rate instead of population size. Stochastic parametric perturbations, modelling phenotypic variability, lead to a Langevin system with two…

Discrimination between non-stationarity and long-range dependency is a difficult and long-standing issue in modelling financial time series. This paper uses an adaptive spectral technique which jointly models the non-stationarity and…

Bayesian field theory denotes a nonparametric Bayesian approach for learning functions from observational data. Based on the principles of Bayesian statistics, a particular Bayesian field theory is defined by combining two models: a…

We study problem-dependent rates, i.e., generalization errors that scale near-optimally with the variance, the effective loss, or the gradient norms evaluated at the "best hypothesis." We introduce a principled framework dubbed "uniform…

Modeling non-Markovian time series is a recent topic of research in many fields such as climate modeling, biophysics, molecular dynamics, or finance. The generalized Langevin equation (GLE), given naturally by the Mori-Zwanzig projection…