Related papers: Volatility Modeling via EWMA-Driven Time-Dependent…
Volatility, as a primary indicator of financial risk, forms the foundation of classical frameworks such as Markowitz's Portfolio Theory and the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). However, its conventional use rests on assumptions-most…
We propose a new class of rough stochastic volatility models obtained by modulating the power-law kernel defining the fractional Brownian motion (fBm) by a logarithmic term, such that the kernel retains square integrability even in the…
This paper provides an insight to the time-varying dynamics of the shape of the distribution of financial return series by proposing an exponential weighted moving average model that jointly estimates volatility, skewness and kurtosis over…
An exponentially weighted moving model (EWMM) for a vector time series fits a new data model each time period, based on an exponentially fading loss function on past observed data. The well known and widely used exponentially weighted…
In this article, we apply the forward variance modeling approach by L.Bergomi to the co-terminal swap market model. We build an interest rate model for which all the market price changes of hedging instruments, interest rate swaps and…
Diffusion Probabilistic Model (DDPM) for generating one-day-ahead arbitrage-free implied volatility surfaces. To capture the path-dependent nature of volatility dynamics, we condition our model on a set of market variables, including…
This thesis develops a new framework for modelling price processes in finance, such as an equity price or foreign exchange rate. This can be related to the conventional Ito calculus-based framework through the time integral of a price's…
Using a large dataset on major FX rates, we test the robustness of the rough fractional volatility model over different time scales, by including smoothing and measurement errors into the analysis. Our findings lead to new stylized facts in…
Rough volatility is a well-established statistical stylised fact of financial assets. This property has lead to the design and analysis of various new rough stochastic volatility models. However, most of these developments have been carried…
In this paper, we show how the sampling properties of the Hurst exponent methods of estimation change with the presence of heavy tails. We run extensive Monte Carlo simulations to find out how rescaled range analysis (R/S), multifractal…
In this paper we derive a Bismut-Elworthy-Li type formula with respect to strong solutions to singular stochastic differential equations (SDE's) with additive noise given by a multi-dimensional fractional Brownian motion with Hurst…
We study pricing and hedging under parameter uncertainty for a class of Markov processes which we call generalized affine processes and which includes the Black-Scholes model as well as the constant elasticity of variance (CEV) model as…
We prove a large deviation principle for the slow-fast rough differential equations under the controlled rough path framework. The driver rough paths are lifted from the mixed fractional Brownian motion with Hurst parameter $H\in…
We present a purely deep neural network-based approach for estimating long memory parameters of time series models that incorporate the phenomenon of long-range dependence. Parameters, such as the Hurst exponent, are critical in…
In this paper, we analyze the robustness and sensitivity of various continuous-time rough Volterra stochastic volatility models in relation to the process of market calibration. Model robustness is examined from two perspectives: the…
It is a market practice to express market-implied volatilities in some parametric form. The most popular parametrizations are based on or inspired by an underlying stochastic model, like the Heston model (SVI method) or the SABR model (SABR…
In this paper, we construct consistent statistical estimators of the Hurst index, volatility coefficient, and drift parameter for Bessel processes driven by fractional Brownian motion with $H<1/2$. As an auxiliary result, we also prove the…
We introduce the multivariate Log S-fBM model (mLog S-fBM), extending the univariate framework proposed by Wu \textit{et al.} to the multidimensional setting. We define the multidimensional Stationary fractional Brownian motion (mS-fBM),…
Uncertainties are abundant in complex systems. Mathematical models for these systems thus contain random effects or noises. The models are often in the form of stochastic differential equations, with some parameters to be determined by…
In industrial applications it is quite common to use stochastic volatility models driven by semi-martingale Markov volatility processes. However, in order to fit exactly market volatilities, these models are usually extended by adding a…