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In this paper, we develop a multi-group epidemic framework via virtual dispersal where the risk of infection is a function of the residence time and local environmental risk. This novel approach eliminates the need to define and measure…
Panic may spread over a crowd in a similar fashion as contagious diseases do in social groups. People no exposed to a panic source may express fear, alerting others of imminent danger. This social mechanism initiates an evacuation process,…
This work aims to assess the risks of Covid-19 disease spread in diverse daily-life situations (referred to as scenarios) involving crowds of maskless pedestrians, mostly outdoors. More concretely, we develop a method to infer the global…
We considered a model for an infectious disease outbreak, when the depletion of susceptible individuals is negligible, and assumed that individuals adapt their behavior according to the information they receive about new cases. In line with…
Classical disease models use a mass action term as the interaction between infected and susceptible people in separate patches. We derive the equations when this interaction is a migration of people between patches. The results model what…
Infectious diseases outbreaks are often characterized by a spatial component induced by hosts' distribution, mobility, and interactions. Spatial models that incorporate hosts' movements are being used to describe these processes, to…
Our work stems from the consideration that the spreading of a disease is modulated by the individual's perception of the infected neighborhood and his/her strategy to avoid being infected as well. We introduced a general ``cellular agent''…
The spatial structure of populations is a key element in the understanding of the large scale spreading of epidemics. Motivated by the recent empirical evidence on the heterogeneous properties of transportation and commuting patterns among…
Infectious diseases are a significant threat to human society which was over sighted before the incidence of COVID-19, although according to the report of the World Health Organisation (WHO) about 4.2 million people die annually due to…
The increasing integration of world economies, which organize in complex multilayer networks of interactions, is one of the critical factors for the global propagation of economic crises. We adopt the network science approach to quantify…
Emerging marine infectious diseases pose a substantial threat to marine ecosystems and the conservation of their biodiversity. Compartmental models of epidemic transmission in marine sessile organisms, available only recently, are based on…
It is essential to understand the dynamics of epidemics in the presence of coexisting pathogens. There are various phenomenon that can effect the dynamics. In this paper, we formulate a mathematical model using different assumptions to…
In this paper we analyze a continuous-time epidemic model and its discrete counterpart, where infection spreads both horizontally and vertically. We consider three cases: model with horizontal and imperfect vertical transmissions, model…
We develop a mathematical framework to study the economic impact of infectious diseases by integrating epidemiological dynamics with a kinetic model of wealth exchange. The multi-agent description leads to study the evolution over time of a…
Early estimates of the transmission properties of a newly emerged pathogen are critical to an effective public health response, and are often based on limited outbreak data. Here, we use simulations to investigate a potential source of bias…
In this paper we consider a three level food web subject to a disease affecting the bottom prey. The resulting dynamics is much richer with respect to the purely demographic model, in that it contains more transcritical bifurcations, gluing…
We consider the class of SIS epidemic models in which a large population of individuals chooses whether to adopt protection or to remain unprotected as the epidemic evolves. For a susceptible individual, adopting protection reduces the…
In the first part of this paper, we review old and new results about the influence of host population heterogeneity on (various characteristics of) epidemic outbreaks. In the second part we highlight a modelling issue that so far has…
Spatial models for spread of an epidemic may be mapped onto bond percolation. We point out that with disorder in the strength of contacts between individuals patchiness in the spread of the epidemic is very likely, and the criterion for…
We develop an extension of the Susceptible-Infected-Recovery (SIR) model to account for spatial variations in population as well as infection and recovery parameters. The equations are derived by taking the continuum limit of discrete…