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Consider the causal effect that one individual's treatment may have on another individual's outcome when the outcome is contagious, with specific application to the effect of vaccination on an infectious disease outcome. The effect of one…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-03-06 Elizabeth L. Ogburn , Tyler J. VanderWeele

Delayed outcomes are ubiquitous in online experimentation. When such a temporal dimension is present, treatment influences not only the outcome value but also the outcome timing, which can move in opposite directions. Motivated by the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-30 Michael Lindon , Nathan Kallus

Oversubscribed treatments are often allocated using randomized waiting lists. Applicants are ranked randomly, and treatment offers are made following that ranking until all seats are filled. To estimate causal effects, researchers often…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-10-24 Clement de Chaisemartin , Luc Behaghel

Causal inference with observational data can be performed under an assumption of no unobserved confounders (unconfoundedness assumption). There is, however, seldom clear subject-matter or empirical evidence for such an assumption. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-13 Minna Genbäck , Xavier de Luna

The interpretation of randomised clinical trial results is often complicated by intercurrent events. For instance, rescue medication is sometimes given to patients in response to worsening of their disease, either in addition to the…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-02-12 Hege Michiels , Cristina Sotto , An Vandebosch , Stijn Vansteelandt

The probability of benefit is a valuable and important measure of treatment effect, which has advantages over the average treatment effect. Particularly for an ordinal outcome, it has a better interpretation and can make apparent different…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-19 Erin E Gabriel , Michael C Sachs , Andreas Kryger Jensen

Causal inference is to estimate the causal effect in a causal relationship when intervention is applied. Precisely, in a causal model with binary interventions, i.e., control and treatment, the causal effect is simply the difference between…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-19 Zhenyu Lu , Yurong Cheng , Mingjun Zhong , George Stoian , Ye Yuan , Guoren Wang

A parameter $\psi$ was recently defined and introduced into the epidemiological modelling scientific literature, and is being accepted. The said parameter was used to argue that there was a disproportionate risk of infection incurred by…

Physics and Society · Physics 2024-12-23 Denis G. Rancourt , Joseph Hickey

Combating the SARS-CoV2 pandemic will require the fast development of effective preventive vaccines. Regulatory agencies may open accelerated approval pathways for vaccines if an immunological marker can be established as a mediator of a…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-05 David Benkeser , Iván Díaz , Jialu Ran

Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) are often considered the gold standard for estimating causal effect, but they may lack external validity when the population eligible to the RCT is substantially different from the target population.…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-11 Bénédicte Colnet , Julie Josse , Erwan Scornet , Gaël Varoquaux

Assessing the causal effects of interventions on ordinal outcomes is an important objective of many educational and behavioral studies. Under the potential outcomes framework, we can define causal effects as comparisons between the…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-04-06 Jiannan Lu , Peng Ding , Tirthankar Dasgupta

In the statistical literature, a number of methods have been proposed to ensure valid inference about marginal effects of variables on a longitudinal outcome in settings with irregular monitoring times. However, the potential biases due to…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-23 Janie Coulombe , Erica E M Moodie , Robert W Platt

Intercurrent (post-treatment) events occur frequently in randomized trials, and investigators often express interest in treatment effects that suitably take account of these events. A naive conditioning on intercurrent events does not have…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-17 Mats J. Stensrud , Oliver Dukes

Causal mediation analysis decomposes the total effect of a treatment on an outcome into the indirect effect, operating through the mediator, and the direct effect, operating through other pathways. One can estimate only the pure indirect…

Applications · Statistics 2025-07-16 Vindyani Herath , Ronald J. Bosch , Judith J. Lok

Population attributable fractions aim to quantify the proportion of the cases of an outcome (for example, a disease) that would have been avoided had no individuals in the population been exposed to a given exposure. This quantity thus…

Causal evidence is needed to act and it is often enough for the evidence to point towards a direction of the effect of an action. For example, policymakers might be interested in estimating the effect of slightly increasing taxes on private…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-11 Dominik Rothenhäusler , Bin Yu

We propose a new method that uses tensor completion to estimate causal effects with multivariate longitudinal data, data in which multiple outcomes are observed for each unit and time period. Our motivation is to estimate the number of…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-21 Jonathan Auerbach , Martin Slawski , Shixue Zhang

In this paper, we discuss causal inference on the efficacy of a treatment or medication on a time-to-event outcome with competing risks. Although the treatment group can be randomized, there can be confoundings between the compliance and…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-12-06 Cheng Zheng , Ran Dai , Parameswaran Hari , Mei-Jie Zhang

Many outcomes of interest in the social and health sciences, as well as in modern applications in computational social science and experimentation on social media platforms, are ordinal and do not have a meaningful scale. Causal analyses…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-01-07 Alexander Volfovsky , Edoardo M. Airoldi , Donald B. Rubin

Selection bias poses a challenge to statistical inference validity in non-probability surveys. This study compared estimates of the first-dose COVID-19 vaccination rates among Indian adults in 2021 from a large non-probability survey,…