Related papers: Detecting extreme event-driven causality
Several environmental phenomena can be described by different correlated variables that must be considered jointly in order to be more representative of the nature of these phenomena. For such events, identification of extremes is…
In modern advanced emergency management systems many solutions for decision support have been provided as attempts to support humans to take important decisions for the critical situations recovery. The critical situation detection is a…
A central problem in uncertainty quantification is how to characterize the impact that our incomplete knowledge about models has on the predictions we make from them. This question naturally lends itself to a probabilistic formulation, by…
Extreme events that arise spontaneously in chaotic dynamical systems often have an adverse impact on the system or the surrounding environment. As such, their mitigation is highly desirable. Here, we introduce a novel control strategy for…
From ancient philosophers to modern economists, biologists, and other researchers, there has been a continuous effort to unveil causal relations. The most formidable challenge lies in deducing the nature of the causal relationship: whether…
Consider two stationary time series with heavy-tailed marginal distributions. We aim to detect whether they have a causal relation, that is, if a change in one causes a change in the other. Usual methods for causal discovery are not well…
Causal phenomena associated with rare events occur across a wide range of engineering problems, such as risk-sensitive safety analysis, accident analysis and prevention, and extreme value theory. However, current methods for causal…
A central challenge in the study of complex systems is the quantification of emergence -- understood as the ability of the system to exhibit collective behaviours that cannot be traced down to the individual components. While recent work…
Data based detection and quantification of causation in complex, nonlinear dynamical systems is of paramount importance to science, engineering and beyond. Inspired by the widely used methodology in recent years, the cross-map-based…
An extreme event is a sudden and violent change in the state of a nonlinear system. In fluid dynamics, extreme events can have adverse effects on the system's optimal design and operability, which calls for accurate methods for their…
The broad concept of emergence is instrumental in various of the most challenging open scientific questions -- yet, few quantitative theories of what constitutes emergent phenomena have been proposed. This article introduces a formal theory…
Identifying causal relationships is a challenging yet crucial problem in many fields of science like epidemiology, climatology, ecology, genomics, economics and neuroscience, to mention only a few. Recent studies have demonstrated that…
Extreme events are ubiquitous in a wide range of dynamical systems, including turbulent fluid flows, nonlinear waves, large scale networks and biological systems. Here, we propose a variational framework for probing conditions that trigger…
We study the impact of the coupling topology on the ability of various networked dynamical systems to generate extreme events. By determining the coupling strength that is necessary to generate an extreme event in the collective dynamics of…
Since 1970, the R\"ossler system has remained as a considerably simpler and minimal dimensional chaos serving system. Unveiling the dynamics of a system of two coupled chaotic oscillators that leads to the emergence of extreme events in the…
Numerical climate models are complex and combine a large number of physical processes. They are key tools in quantifying the relative contribution of potential anthropogenic causes (e.g., the current increase in greenhouse gases) on high…
Identifying causality behind complex systems plays a significant role in different domains, such as decision making, policy implementations, and management recommendations. However, existing causality studies on temporal event sequences…
We study the extreme events taking place on complex networks. The transport on networks is modelled using random walks and we compute the probability for the occurance and recurrence of extreme events on the network. We show that the nodes…
The frequency and magnitude of weather extreme events have increased significantly during the past few years in response to anthropogenic climate change. However, global statistical characteristics and underlying physical mechanisms are…
Extreme events occur across the natural, engineering, and socioeconomic sciences, where rare but high-impact episodes can lead to disproportionate consequences that pose major challenges for prediction and risk management. Existing studies…