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This paper proposes new methodology for sequential state and parameter estimation within the ensemble Kalman filter. The method is fully Bayesian and propagates the joint posterior density of states and parameters over time. In order to…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-11-14 Jonathan R. Stroud , Matthias Katzfuss , Christopher K. Wikle

Data assimilation provides algorithms for widespread applications in various fields. It is of practical use to deal with a large amount of information in the complex system that is hard to estimate. Weather forecasting is one of the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-03-23 Yihua Yang

This paper presents an adaptive Kalman filter for a linear dynamic system perturbed by an additive disturbance. The objective is to estimate both of the state and the unknown disturbance concurrently, while learning the disturbance as a…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-10-23 Taeyoung Lee

We use statistical learning methods to construct an adaptive state estimator for nonlinear stochastic systems. Optimal state estimation, in the form of a Kalman filter, requires knowledge of the system's process and measurement uncertainty.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-11-05 Michael Busch , Jeff Moehlis

Filtering is concerned with online estimation of the state of a dynamical system from partial and noisy observations. In applications where the state of the system is high dimensional, ensemble Kalman filters are often the method of choice.…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-07-30 Omar Al Ghattas , Jiajun Bao , Daniel Sanz-Alonso

Reduced-order models based on level-set methods are widely used tools to qualitatively capture and track the nonlinear dynamics of an interface. The aim of this paper is to develop a physics-informed, data-driven, statistically rigorous…

Computational Physics · Physics 2019-09-20 Hans Yu , Matthew P. Juniper , Luca Magri

The filtering distribution captures the statistics of the state of a dynamical system from partial and noisy observations. Classical particle filters provably approximate this distribution in quite general settings; however they behave…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-02-10 Edoardo Calvello , Pierre Monmarché , Andrew M. Stuart , Urbain Vaes

The success of the ensemble Kalman filter has triggered a strong interest in expanding its scope beyond classical state estimation problems. In this paper, we focus on continuous-time data assimilation where the model and measurement errors…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2019-06-26 Nikolas Nüsken , Sebastian Reich , Paul J. Rozdeba

Filtering is concerned with online estimation of the state of a dynamical system from partial and noisy observations. In applications where the state is high dimensional, ensemble Kalman filters are often the method of choice. This paper…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2024-12-20 Daniel Sanz-Alonso , Nathan Waniorek

Estimating the state of a dynamical system from partial and noisy observations is a ubiquitous problem in a large number of applications, such as probabilistic weather forecasting and prediction of epidemics. Particle filters are a widely…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-03-21 E. Calvello , J. A. Carrillo , F. Hoffmann , P. Monmarché , A. M. Stuart , U. Vaes

This paper considers the Linear Minimum Variance recursive state estimation for the linear discrete time dynamic system with random state transition and measurement matrices, i.e., random parameter matrices Kalman filtering. It is shown…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2007-07-13 Dandan Luo , Yunmin Zhu

A recursive state estimation procedure is derived for a linear time varying system with both parametric uncertainties and stochastic measurement droppings. This estimator has a similar form as that of the Kalman filter with intermittent…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2016-11-17 Tong Zhou

Data assimilation is an iterative approach to the problem of estimating the state of a dynamical system using both current and past observations of the system together with a model for the system's time evolution. Rather than solving the…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2007-05-23 Brian R. Hunt , Eric J. Kostelich , Istvan Szunyogh

State estimation is a fundamental problem in control and signal processing, for which the Kalman Filter provides an optimal solution under linear dynamics, Gaussian noise, and known noise covariances. However, these assumptions often fail…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-27 Vasileios Saketos , Ming Xiao

In this paper we address the problem of estimating the posterior distribution of the static parameters of a continuous time state space model with discrete time observations by an algorithm that combines the Kalman filter and a particle…

Computation · Statistics 2019-05-22 Jian He , Asma Khedher , Peter Spreij

Estimating the statistics of the state of a dynamical system, from partial and noisy observations, is both mathematically challenging and finds wide application. Furthermore, the applications are of great societal importance, including…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-06-03 J. A. Carrillo , F. Hoffmann , A. M. Stuart , U. Vaes

Inferring the state and unknown parameters of a network of coupled oscillators is of utmost importance. This task is made harder when only partial and noisy observations are available, which is a typical scenario in realistic…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2025-04-07 Lauren D. Smith , Georg A. Gottwald

Data assimilation is the task to combine evolution models and observational data in order to produce reliable predictions. In this paper, we focus on ensemble-based recursive data assimilation problems. Our main contribution is a hybrid…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2016-02-26 Nawinda Chustagulprom , Sebastian Reich , Maria Reinhardt

The performance of ensemble-based data assimilation techniques that estimate the state of a dynamical system from partial observations depends crucially on the prescribed uncertainty of the model dynamics and of the observations. These are…

Computation · Statistics 2021-02-24 Tadeo Javier Cocucci , Manuel Pulido , Magdalena Lucini , Pierre Tandeo

Data assimilation schemes are confronted with the presence of model errors arising from the imperfect description of atmospheric dynamics. These errors are usually modeled on the basis of simple assumptions such as bias, white noise, first…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2009-11-13 A. Carrassi , S. Vannitsem , C. Nicolis
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