Related papers: Sustainability Risks under Lotka-Volterra Dynamics
Transitions to absorbing states are of fundamental importance in non-equilibrium physics as well as ecology. In ecology, absorbing states correspond to the extinction of species. We here study the spatial population dynamics of three…
The logistics of urban areas are becoming more sophisticated due to the fast city population growth. The stakeholders are faced with the challenges of the dynamic complexity of city logistics(CL) systems characterized by the uncertainty…
When three species compete cyclically in a well-mixed, stochastic system of $N$ individuals, extinction is known to typically occur at times scaling as the system size $N$. This happens, for example, in rock-paper-scissors games or…
Ecosystems are complex systems, currently experiencing several threats associated with global warming, intensive exploitation, and human-driven habitat degradation. Such threats are pushing ecosystems to the brink of collapse. Because of a…
Long-range climate forecasts use integrated assessment models to link the global economy to greenhouse gas emissions. This paper evaluates an alternative economic framework outlined in part 1 of this study (Garrett, 2014) that approaches…
Feeding a larger and wealthier global population without transgressing ecological limits is increasingly challenging, as rising food demand (especially for animal products) intensifies pressure on ecosystems, accelerates deforestation, and…
Resilient ecological systems will be better able to maintain their structure and function in the emerging Anthropocene. Estimating the resilience of different systems will therefore provide valuable insight for conservation decision-makers,…
Renewable-energy-based grids development needs new methods to maintain the balance between the load and generation using the efficient energy storages models. Most of the available energy storages models do not take into account such…
Recently we have introduced a simplified model of ecosystem assembly (Capitan et al., 2009) for which we are able to map out all assembly pathways generated by external invasions in an exact manner. In this paper we provide a deeper…
To comply with increasingly stringent international standards in risk management and regulation, several approaches have been developed in the literature for forecasting tail-risk measures such as Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall…
In this paper we are concerned with the learnability of energies from data obtained by observing time evolutions of their critical points starting at random initial equilibria. As a byproduct of our theoretical framework we introduce the…
Although climate and nature related scenario analysis is increasingly important in finance, operational implementations remain limited for translating long horizon environmental scenarios into counterparty credit risk measures used in…
Human society is an open system that evolves by coupling with various known and unknown (energy) fluxes. How do these dynamics precisely unfold? Energetics may provide further insights. We expand on Navier Stokes' approach to study…
We use generating functionals to derive a dynamic mean-field description for generalised Lotka-Volterra systems with higher-order quenched random interactions. We use the resulting single effective species process to determine the stability…
Projections of extreme sea levels (ESLs) are critical for managing coastal risks, but are made complicated by deep uncertainties. One key uncertainty is the choice of model structure used to estimate coastal hazards. Differences in model…
Does an ecological community allow stable coexistence? Identifying the general principles that determine the answer to this question is a central problem of theoretical ecology. Random matrix theory approaches have uncovered the general…
We introduce a framework for systemic risk modeling in insurance portfolios using jointly exchangeable arrays, extending classical collective risk models to account for interactions. Joint exchangeability is a more general probabilistic…
Monitoring downside risk and upside risk to the key macroeconomic indicators is critical for effective policymaking aimed at maintaining economic stability. In this paper I propose a parametric framework for modelling and forecasting…
The study and measurement of economic resilience is ruled by high level of complexity related to the diverse structure, functionality, spatiality, and dynamics describing economic systems. Towards serving the demand of integration, this…
Competitive birth-death processes often exhibit an oscillatory behavior. We investigate a particular case where the oscillation cycles are marginally stable on the mean-field level. An iconic example of such a system is the Lotka-Volterra…