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In real-world settings involving consequential decision-making, the deployment of machine learning systems generally requires both reliable uncertainty quantification and protection of individuals' privacy. We present a framework that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-05 Anastasios N. Angelopoulos , Stephen Bates , Tijana Zrnic , Michael I. Jordan

Conformal methods create prediction bands that control average coverage assuming solely i.i.d. data. Although the literature has mostly focused on prediction intervals, more general regions can often better represent uncertainty. For…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-10-06 Rafael Izbicki , Gilson Shimizu , Rafael B. Stern

Neural networks make accurate predictions but often fail to provide reliable uncertainty estimates, especially under covariate distribution shifts between training and testing. To address this problem, we propose a Bayesian framework for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-22 Yuli Slavutsky , David M. Blei

We investigate the modeling and the numerical solution of machine learning problems with prediction functions which are linear combinations of elements of a possibly infinite-dimensional dictionary. We propose a novel flexible composite…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-12-03 Patrick L. Combettes , Saverio Salzo , Silvia Villa

Semantic segmentation consists of assigning a semantic label to each pixel according to predefined classes. This process facilitates the understanding of object appearance and spatial relationships, playing an important role in the global…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-03-31 Mariana Dória Prata Lima , Gilson Antonio Giraldi , Jaime S. Cardoso

We study the problem of semantic segmentation calibration. Lots of solutions have been proposed to approach model miscalibration of confidence in image classification. However, to date, confidence calibration research on semantic…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-03-28 Dongdong Wang , Boqing Gong , Liqiang Wang

Semantic segmentation networks are usually pre-trained once and not updated during deployment. As a consequence, misclassifications commonly occur if the distribution of the training data deviates from the one encountered during the robot's…

Robotics · Computer Science 2023-02-15 Jonas Frey , Hermann Blum , Francesco Milano , Roland Siegwart , Cesar Cadena

Contrastive learning produces coherent semantic feature embeddings by encouraging positive samples to cluster closely while separating negative samples. However, existing contrastive learning methods lack principled guarantees on coverage…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-30 Yahya Alkhatib , Wee Peng Tay

In segmentation problems, inference on change-point position and model selection are two difficult issues due to the discrete nature of change-points. In a Bayesian context, we derive exact, non-asymptotic, explicit and tractable formulae…

Computation · Statistics 2015-12-31 Guillem Rigaill , Emilie Lebarbier , Stéphane Robin

We propose an extension of Thompson sampling to optimization problems over function spaces where the objective is a known functional of an unknown operator's output. We assume that queries to the operator (such as running a high-fidelity…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-21 Rafael Oliveira , Xuesong Wang , Kian Ming A. Chai , Edwin V. Bonilla

Given that machine learning algorithms are increasingly being deployed to aid in high stakes decision-making, uncertainty quantification methods that wrap around these black box models such as conformal prediction have received much…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-09 Kayla E. Scharfstein , Arun Kumar Kuchibhotla

Conformal prediction has received tremendous attention in recent years and has offered new solutions to problems in missing data and causal inference; yet these advances have not leveraged modern semiparametric efficiency theory for more…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-14 Yachong Yang , Arun Kumar Kuchibhotla , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

Conformal inference has played a pivotal role in providing uncertainty quantification for black-box ML prediction algorithms with finite sample guarantees. Traditionally, conformal prediction inference requires a data-independent…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-04 Siddhaarth Sarkar , Arun Kumar Kuchibhotla

Conformal prediction is a model-free machine learning method for constructing prediction regions at a guaranteed coverage probability level. However, a data scientist often faces three challenges in practice: (i) the determination of a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-31 Liang Hong , Noura Raydan Nasreddine

We develop fast distribution-free conformal prediction algorithms for obtaining multivalid coverage on exchangeable data in the batch setting. Multivalid coverage guarantees are stronger than marginal coverage guarantees in two ways: (1)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-03 Christopher Jung , Georgy Noarov , Ramya Ramalingam , Aaron Roth

Convolutional image classifiers can achieve high predictive accuracy, but quantifying their uncertainty remains an unresolved challenge, hindering their deployment in consequential settings. Existing uncertainty quantification techniques,…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-09-07 Anastasios Angelopoulos , Stephen Bates , Jitendra Malik , Michael I. Jordan

As artificial intelligence (AI) / machine learning (ML) gain widespread adoption, practitioners are increasingly seeking means to quantify and control the risk these systems incur. This challenge is especially salient when such systems have…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-06 Drew Prinster , Samuel Stanton , Anqi Liu , Suchi Saria

Credal sets are sets of probability distributions that are considered as candidates for an imprecisely known ground-truth distribution. In machine learning, they have recently attracted attention as an appealing formalism for uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-02-19 Alireza Javanmardi , David Stutz , Eyke Hüllermeier

Conformal prediction provides distribution-free coverage guaranties for regression; yet existing methods assume Euclidean output spaces and produce prediction regions that are poorly calibrated when responses lie on Riemannian manifolds. We…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-19 Marzieh Amiri Shahbazi , Ali Baheri

Conformal predictive systems are sets of predictive distributions with theoretical out-of-sample calibration guarantees. The calibration guarantees are typically that the set of predictions contains a forecast distribution whose prediction…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-03 Sam Allen , Enrico Pescara , Johanna Ziegel