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Many scientific systems, such as cellular populations or economic cohorts, are naturally described by probability distributions that evolve over time. Predicting how such a system would have evolved under different forces or initial…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-26 Tristan Luca Saidi , Gonzalo Mena , Larry Wasserman , Florian Gunsilius

We identify the leading term in the asymptotics of the quadratic Wasserstein distance between the invariant measure and empirical measures for diffusion processes on closed weighted four-dimensional Riemannian manifolds. Unlike results in…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-10-30 Dario Trevisan , Feng-Yu Wang , Jie-Xiang Zhu

To quantify the fundamental evolution of time-varying networks, and detect abnormal behavior, one needs a notion of temporal difference that captures significant organizational changes between two successive instants. In this work, we…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2017-08-17 Nathan D Monnig , Francois G Meyer

We present a method to overapproximate forward stochastic reach sets of discrete-time, stochastic nonlinear systems with interval geometry. This is made possible by extending the theory of mixed-monotone systems to incorporate stochastic…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-12-05 Vignesh Sivaramakrishnan , Rosalyn A. Devonport , Murat Arcak , Meeko M. K. Oishi

Most Kalman filters for non-linear systems, such as the unscented Kalman filter, are based on Gaussian approximations. We use Poincar\'e inequalities to bound the Wasserstein distance between the true joint distribution of the prediction…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-28 Toni Karvonen , Simo Särkkä

Mathematical models for complex systems under random fluctuations often certain uncertain parameters. However, quantifying model uncertainty for a stochastic differential equation with an $\alpha$-stable L\'evy process is still lacking.…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2021-02-24 Yayun Zheng , Fang Yang , Jinqiao Duan , Jürgen Kurths

Collections of probability distributions arise in a variety of applications ranging from user activity pattern analysis to brain connectomics. In practice these distributions can be defined over diverse domain types including finite…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-16 Raif Rustamov , Subhabrata Majumdar

This paper is motivated by the problem of quantitatively bounding the convergence of adaptive control methods for stochastic systems to a stationary distribution. Such bounds are useful for analyzing statistics of trajectories and…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-10-19 Tyler Lekang , Andrew Lamperski

We consider stochastic programs where the distribution of the uncertain parameters is only observable through a finite training dataset. Using the Wasserstein metric, we construct a ball in the space of (multivariate and non-discrete)…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2017-06-14 Peyman Mohajerin Esfahani , Daniel Kuhn

Detecting relevant changes in dynamic time series data in a timely manner is crucially important for many data analysis tasks in real-world settings. Change point detection methods have the ability to discover changes in an unsupervised…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-01-19 Kamil Faber , Roberto Corizzo , Bartlomiej Sniezynski , Michael Baron , Nathalie Japkowicz

Ensemble systems appear frequently in many engineering applications and, as a result, they have become an important research topic in control theory. These systems are best characterized by the evolution of their underlying state…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-01-21 Guangyu Wu , Panagiotis Tsiotras , Anders Lindquist

To deal with stochastic hybrid systems with general state-dependent switching, we propose an approximation method by a sequence of stochastic hybrid systems with piecewise constant type switching. The convergence rate in the Wasserstein…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-05-17 Jinghai Shao , Lingdi Wang , Qiong Wu

We derive a relation between the dissipation in a stochastic dynamics and the Wasserstein distance. We show that the minimal amount of dissipation required to transform an initial state to a final state during a diffusion process is given…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2019-12-19 Andreas Dechant , Yohei Sakurai

Social dynamics is concerned primarily with interactions among individuals and the resulting group behaviors, modeling the temporal evolution of social systems via the interactions of individuals within these systems. In particular, the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-11-08 Zhen Xu , Wen Dong , Sargur Srihari

We propose a scalable method for forward stochastic reachability analysis for uncontrolled linear systems with affine disturbance. Our method uses Fourier transforms to efficiently compute the forward stochastic reach probability measure…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2017-02-14 Abraham P. Vinod , Baisravan Homchaudhuri , Meeko M. K. Oishi

Accurate approximation of probability measures is essential in numerical applications. This paper explores the quantization of probability measures using the maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) distance as a guiding metric. We first investigate…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-03-18 Zahra Mehraban , Alois Pichler

The distance standard deviation, which arises in distance correlation analysis of multivariate data, is studied as a measure of spread. The asymptotic distribution of the empirical distance standard deviation is derived under the assumption…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-12-12 Dominic Edelmann , Donald Richards , Daniel Vogel

Distinguishability and, by extension, observability are key properties of dynamical systems. Establishing these properties is challenging, especially when no analytical model is available and they are to be inferred directly from…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-06-10 Pierre-François Massiani , Mona Buisson-Fenet , Friedrich Solowjow , Florent Di Meglio , Sebastian Trimpe

This paper builds Wasserstein ambiguity sets for the unknown probability distribution of dynamic random variables leveraging noisy partial-state observations. The constructed ambiguity sets contain the true distribution of the data with…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-07-21 Dimitris Boskos , Jorge Cortés , Sonia Martínez

A system's internal dynamics and its interaction with the environment can be determined by tracking how external perturbations affect its transition rates between states. Quantitative measurements of these rates are crucial for optimizing…