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Reliability of machine learning (ML) systems is crucial in safety-critical applications such as healthcare, and uncertainty estimation is a widely researched method to highlight the confidence of ML systems in deployment. Sequential and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-23 Utkarsh Sarawgi , Rishab Khincha , Wazeer Zulfikar , Satrajit Ghosh , Pattie Maes

Uncertainty quantification is a critical yet unsolved challenge for deep learning, especially for the time series imputation with irregularly sampled measurements. To tackle this problem, we propose a novel framework based on the principles…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-05 Shweta Dahale , Sai Munikoti , Balasubramaniam Natarajan

State estimators are crucial components of anomaly detectors that are used to monitor cyber-physical systems. Many frequently-used state estimators are susceptible to model risk as they rely critically on the availability of an accurate…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-01-19 Venkatraman Renganathan , Benjamin J. Gravell , Justin Ruths , Tyler H. Summers

The rapid rise of large language models (LLMs) is reshaping the landscape of automatic assessment in education. While these systems demonstrate substantial advantages in adaptability to diverse question types and flexibility in output…

Faithful uncertainty quantification (UQ) is paramount in high stakes climate prediction. Deep ensembles, or ensembles of probabilistic neural networks, are state of the art for UQ in machine learning (ML) and are growing increasingly…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-03-24 Devin M. McAfee , Elizabeth A. Barnes

Error mitigation (EM) methods are crucial for obtaining reliable results in the realm of noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) computers, where noise significantly impacts output accuracy. Some EM protocols are particularly efficient for…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2026-03-03 Thibault Scoquart , Hugo Perrin , Kyrylo Snizhko

As large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in high-stakes applications, robust uncertainty estimation is essential for ensuring the safe and trustworthy deployment of LLMs. We present the most comprehensive study to date of…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-06-02 Linwei Tao , Yi-Fan Yeh , Minjing Dong , Tao Huang , Philip Torr , Chang Xu

In this article, we consider the problem of outlier-robust state estimation where the measurement noise can be correlated. Outliers in data arise due to many reasons like sensor malfunctioning, environmental behaviors, communication…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-08-21 Aamir Hussain Chughtai , Muhammad Tahir , Momin Uppal

Uncertainty quantification in Large Language Models (LLMs) is crucial for applications where safety and reliability are important. In particular, uncertainty can be used to improve the trustworthiness of LLMs by detecting factually…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-31 Alexander Nikitin , Jannik Kossen , Yarin Gal , Pekka Marttinen

Recently, there has been an increase in efforts to understand how large language models (LLMs) propagate and amplify social biases. Several works have utilized templates for fairness evaluation, which allow researchers to quantify social…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-10-11 Preethi Seshadri , Pouya Pezeshkpour , Sameer Singh

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods for Large Language Models (LLMs) encompass a variety of approaches, with two major types being particularly prominent: information-based, which focus on model confidence expressed as token…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-12-10 Roman Vashurin , Maiya Goloburda , Albina Ilina , Aleksandr Rubashevskii , Preslav Nakov , Artem Shelmanov , Maxim Panov

Scan matching is a widely used technique in state estimation. Point-cloud alignment, one of the most popular methods for scan matching, is a weighted least-squares problem in which the weights are determined from the inverse covariance of…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-04-29 Thomas Hitchcox , James Richard Forbes

Accurate uncertainty quantification in large language models (LLMs) is essential for reliable confidence estimation, yet fine-tuned LLMs often become overconfident under limited adaptation data. Existing uncertainty methods for PEFT-based…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-15 Ruijia Niu , Dongxia Wu , Rose Yu , Yi-An Ma

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly used in clinical settings, where sensitivity to linguistic uncertainty can influence diagnostic interpretation and decision-making. Yet little is known about where such epistemic cues are…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-12-01 Srivarshinee Sridhar , Raghav Kaushik Ravi , Kripabandhu Ghosh

Covariance Structure Analysis (CSA) or Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) is critical for political scientists measuring latent structural relationships, allowing for the simultaneous assessment of both latent and observed variables,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-20 Bang Quan Zheng , Peter M. Bentler

The use of Deep Neural Network (DNN) models in risk-based decision-making has attracted extensive attention with broad applications in medical, finance, manufacturing, and quality control. To mitigate prediction-related risks in decision…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-10-11 Maryam Kheirandish , Shengfan Zhang , Donald G. Catanzaro , Valeriu Crudu

To date, several automated strategies for identification/segmentation of Multiple Sclerosis (MS) lesions with the use of Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) have been presented, but they are outperformed by human experts, from whom they act…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-06-22 Giuseppe Placidi , Luigi Cinque , Daniela Iacoviello , Filippo Mignosi , Matteo Polsinelli

The automated real-time recognition of unexpected situations plays a crucial role in the safety of autonomous vehicles, especially in unsupported and unpredictable scenarios. This paper evaluates different Bayesian uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-14 Ruben Grewal , Paolo Tonella , Andrea Stocco

As large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used for factual question-answering, it becomes more important for LLMs to have the capability to communicate the likelihood that their answer is correct. For these verbalized expressions of…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-12-15 Sophia Hager , David Mueller , Kevin Duh , Nicholas Andrews

Trainable evaluation metrics for machine translation (MT) exhibit strong correlation with human judgements, but they are often hard to interpret and might produce unreliable scores under noisy or out-of-domain data. Recent work has…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-12-01 Chrysoula Zerva , Taisiya Glushkova , Ricardo Rei , André F. T. Martins