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This paper presents a new model called infinite mixtures of multivariate Gaussian processes, which can be used to learn vector-valued functions and applied to multitask learning. As an extension of the single multivariate Gaussian process,…
We develop a general theory of omitted variable bias for a wide range of common causal parameters, including (but not limited to) averages of potential outcomes, average treatment effects, average causal derivatives, and policy effects from…
A threshold autoregressive (TAR) model is a powerful tool for analyzing nonlinear multivariate time series, which includes special cases like self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) models and vector autoregressive (VAR) models. In…
In this work we consider the unbiased estimation of expectations w.r.t.~probability measures that have non-negative Lebesgue density, and which are known point-wise up-to a normalizing constant. We focus upon developing an unbiased method…
This paper develops forecasting methodology and application of new classes of dynamic models for time series of non-negative counts. Novel univariate models synthesise dynamic generalized linear models for binary and conditionally Poisson…
The abundance of data produced daily from large variety of sources has boosted the need of novel approaches on causal inference analysis from observational data. Observational data often contain noisy or missing entries. Moreover, causal…
The variational autoencoder (VAE) is a popular model for density estimation and representation learning. Canonically, the variational principle suggests to prefer an expressive inference model so that the variational approximation is…
Inferring the causal structure of a set of random variables from a finite sample of the joint distribution is an important problem in science. Recently, methods using additive noise models have been suggested to approach the case of…
In learned image compression, probabilistic models play an essential role in characterizing the distribution of latent variables. The Gaussian model with mean and scale parameters has been widely used for its simplicity and effectiveness.…
Linear structural equation models, which relate random variables via linear interdependencies and Gaussian noise, are a popular tool for modeling multivariate joint distributions. These models correspond to mixed graphs that include both…
We develop a computational procedure to estimate the covariance hyperparameters for semiparametric Gaussian process regression models with additive noise. Namely, the presented method can be used to efficiently estimate the variance of the…
We give a comprehensive mean-field analysis of the Partisan Voter Model (PVM) and report analytical results for exit probabilities, fixation times, and the quasi-stationary distribution. In addition, and similarly to the noisy voter model,…
We consider a class of semi-parametric dynamic models with strong white noise errors. This class of processes includes the standard Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model, the nonfundamental structural VAR, the mixed causal-noncausal models, as…
Diffusion models generate high-quality synthetic data. They operate by defining a continuous-time forward process which gradually adds Gaussian noise to data until fully corrupted. The corresponding reverse process progressively "denoises"…
We propose a new estimator of high-dimensional spot volatility matrices satisfying a low-rank plus sparse structure from noisy and asynchronous high-frequency data collected for an ultra-large number of assets. The noise processes are…
The popular systemic risk measure CoVaR (conditional Value-at-Risk) and its variants are widely used in economics and finance. In this article, we propose joint dynamic forecasting models for the Value-at-Risk (VaR) and CoVaR. The CoVaR…
A novel dynamical model for the study of operational risk in banks and suitable for the calculation of the Value at Risk (VaR) is proposed. The equation of motion takes into account the interactions among different bank's processes, the…
The rapid development of high-throughput technologies has enabled the generation of data from biological or disease processes that span multiple layers, like genomic, proteomic or metabolomic data, and further pertain to multiple sources,…
We consider model-based clustering methods for continuous, correlated data that account for external information available in the presence of mixed-type fixed covariates by proposing the MoEClust suite of models. These models allow…
We study memory dependent binary-state dynamics, focusing on the noisy-voter model. This is a non-Markovian process if we consider the set of binary states of the population as the description variables, or Markovian if we incorporate…